'No reason to think Covid will become more virulent’/'It could be like common cold by Spring'

[GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr]

Some positive news from people who know what they're talking about this morning.

As far as the common cold claim is concerned, there was the caveat that we have to get through winter first (wouldn't fit on my screenshot but that's all that it said, no predictions of catastrophe or anything).

Yes I know there are still vulnerable people whom covid could affect badly (I'm one of them), but this is good news. Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me it's not

Good news and very welcome

@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr

I prefer to listen to people who get things right

The sort of people whose interpretation of noisy data/maths degree enable them to 'project' 100k cases a day by 21 June/19 July/a random date yet to be confirmed, you mean?

Are you claiming to be more of an expert than the woman who developed the vaccine?

No, I just prefer to listen to

Those who correctly warned us about a big wave last winter.

Those who sounded the alarm about Delta while everyone else had their heads in the sand.

Those that correctly projected a third wave in the summer.

Track record >> blind optimism and tabloid talking points.

@TheKeatingFive

Pretty sure I saw the exact same article this time last year.

Course you did Nanny.

And of course nothing has changed since then, nothing at all.

You probably did. But the doomsday brigade shouted it down.

Actually Nanny Balloux thinks we probably more to fear from the emergence of a new coronavirus than any mutations of Covid, so there something you could be getting yourself into a tizzy about.

You’re welcome

All the teachers who are off in the PP school- at least it’s out of the way now and not near exams. The teachers are unlikely to have more than one period of isolation each so if they’re all off now it means a more normal rest of the year.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr Articles claiming that "it's just a cold" have been around since March 2020.

Let's hope this latest iteration is correct, eh?[/quote]
Where did anyone say that it's currently 'just a cold' in the screenshots I posted? I'll wait...

[quote NannyAndJohn]@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr Articles claiming that "it's just a cold" have been around since March 2020.

Let's hope this latest iteration is correct, eh?[/quote]
Except its not saying "its just a cold"

No wonder you always get things so wrong, if you struggle understanding plain English.

@TheKeatingFive

Actually Nanny Balloux thinks we probably more to fear from the emergence of a new coronavirus than any mutations of Covid, so there something you could be getting yourself into a tizzy about.

You’re welcome

It's going to be carnage

I'm going to miss Nanny's pearls of wisdom when this is all over, always makes for entertaining reading with tea and biscuits 😁

@BarefootHippieChick

I'm going to miss Nanny's pearls of wisdom when this is all over, always makes for entertaining reading with tea and biscuits 😁

Don’t worry, she’ll still be here, insisting that it’s going to mutate Any Minute Now, and we’re all doomed.

@Carameljack

All the teachers who are off in the PP school- at least it’s out of the way now and not near exams. The teachers are unlikely to have more than one period of isolation each so if they’re all off now it means a more normal rest of the year.

I don't know all the details, but it appears that some of our teachers are quite unwell, and it will be a major logistical exercise to cover the exam subject teaching this year

so no, not a lovely exercise in getting everything out of the way

and not a more normal rest of the year

(God, where do these posters come from?)

No, I just prefer to listen to

Those who correctly warned us about a big wave last winter.

Those who sounded the alarm about Delta while everyone else had their heads in the sand.

Those that correctly projected a third wave in the summer

And what about those who tell us that tens of thousands of lives have been saved by vaccines? Or the data which shows that deaths remain low, even throughout periods when there were 40,000 cases a day and the lag that followed? Or that vaccines reduce transmission and protect against up to 96% of hospitalisations? Or that new therapies mean that those who become very ill are more likely to recover? Or that cases remained steady even after everything opened up and there was no dramatic spike in cases as was feared?

All things which have proved to be true in recent months.

Thank you for sharing OP. Even if teachers get covid (along with many other professions and workers who are exposed) they wouldn’t all get it at once. There’s such a thing as incubation periods. Heading into October now and none of my children’s teachers have been off.

Well, numbers went through the roof in Scotland when restrictions were raised and schools went back. Nothing has changed in the past couple of weeks, except that more people have been vaccinated over the period and those who had been doubly vaccinated are now fully protected, and yet numbers are falling quite quickly.

It will be interesting to see what happens with winter but if numbers keep falling as they are, it does look like, what they have said all along i.e if we hit 70-80% vaccine rate, things will begin to look much better.

Look, @NannyAndJohn, you're never going to want to hear good news regarding covid. Your fear is palpable and I'm sorry you're still so anxious about it all (I mean this - I've struggled too over the past year and a half and I can honestly say some of the groundless doom posted here didn't help). Perhaps don't come onto threads like this and blatantly make things up ('I saw this exact article last year') and exacerbate the anxieties of others who may be struggling, and who come onto threads sharing positive news in the hope of reassurance. It's not as if the sources here aren't credible, after all.

Have a thought for the effects your words have.

I don't know all the details, but it appears that some of our teachers are quite unwell, and it will be a major logistical exercise to cover the exam subject teaching this year

Surely it’s less disruptive for teachers to be off now than later in the year during exam season?

So-

• vaccines are great, yes

• Sarah Gilbert is great and on the money I'm sure

_ John Bell's record of predictions in the media is less stellar, and HE is the one saying the timeframe will be next spring

well, let's hope he's right, but honestly, the pandemic will be over in its own time and no one really knows exactly how and when it will pan out?

so I think we should be listening to those other very clever people Chris Whitty and JVT and being a bit careful for a bit longer.

while enjoying Prof Gilbert's informed optimism

None of the staff at my children's school has been off with over 40 and rising children having been tested as positive.

The fact that travel restrictions have been considerably eased is a great indicator that there is little concern about the immediate future either. Although it was a heck of a gamble, it looks like Boris was right saying it’s time we took our own responsibility and made our own choices about our health.
I’m on a break in Cornwall at the moment. 4 weeks ago, it was one of the worst effected areas in England and there was advice asking people to avoid visiting unless you had precooked accommodation.
In one month - and despite no tightening of restrictions - it is now one of the least effected.
We’re now at a stage where we just have to ride any upticks in cases as Covid is here to stay in one form or other.

@bumbleymummy

I don't know all the details, but it appears that some of our teachers are quite unwell, and it will be a major logistical exercise to cover the exam subject teaching this year

Surely it’s less disruptive for teachers to be off now than later in the year during exam season?

apparently not, no

Hmm... I would like to watch the webinar and hear what was actually said rather than the writer's interpretation.

No reason to think that SARS-CoV-2 will become more virulent - true

Normally viruses evolve to be less virulent - also true but SARS-CoV-2 is infectious when people are pre-symptomatic so there is no selection pressure for the virus to become less virulent. I believe general consensus is that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 will evolve to be less virulent.

I think what they are talking about is not that the SARS-CoV-2 will have evolved to be less virulent (have less severe symptoms) by next spring, more that the everyone will have been infected or vaccinated and have some immunity by then and they will constantly be reinfected over and over again so their immunity will never wane, and partial immunity (for those that develop immunity) will mean that the symptoms are less severe.

I think the article may be a slight overstatement. As much as I am cautiously optimistic, there is still the possibility of vaccine escape. I wouldn't expect the virus to have evolved to be less virulent by next spring, just that most people will have immunity, which will reduce their symptoms. There will still be many people who don't develop immunity and become seriously ill, as we are seeing now with people who are double vaccinated being hospitalised. I would guess more on a par with flu than the common cold (although I am using "flu" and "common cold" colloquially to describe the risk of becoming seriously ill IYSWIM).

the pandemic will be over in its own time

No it won't, because there are vaccines and therapies and in the past there have been restrictions, all of which will ultimately hasten its end. It would have to be left to its own devices to be 'over in its own time'. Human response alters its course and while, of course, we can't completely control it, we can influence the way it pans out and the length of time it takes to do so.

@herecomesthsun why? If they’ve had the virus now then they’re not going to be sick again later in the year.

Or the data which shows that deaths remain low, even throughout periods when there were 40,000 cases a day and the lag that followed?

I think the problem with focusing on deaths is that is only a part of the picture. With the numbers where they have been in Scotland, hospitalisations are still very high. Vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalisation but even with that much lower risk, the numbers of hospitalisations will be higher if cases are higher. For every 1000 cases, 10% were at risk of hospitalisation prior to vaccination. That's 100 people. If cases are ten times higher (10,000) than they were, even with a reduction to 3% of cases ending up in hospitalisation, there will still me more people in hospital (300 people). The covid numbers will look fantastic, but that means more people are not being treated for non covid things. A twitter thread this morning had another person being prepped and ready for cancer surgery, it was cancelled the day it was due, because no ITU beds available. Lots of others chiming in with similar stories, and the same has happened to my dad more than once in the last 6 months.

That's not to say this report isn't hopeful, and that there isn't light at the end of the tunnel, but just to confirm those people who spoke of problems 6 months ago haven't actually been proven wrong.

Thank you for sharing this OP
Onwards and upwards!