'No reason to think Covid will become more virulent’/'It could be like common cold by Spring'

[GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr]

Some positive news from people who know what they're talking about this morning.

As far as the common cold claim is concerned, there was the caveat that we have to get through winter first (wouldn't fit on my screenshot but that's all that it said, no predictions of catastrophe or anything).

Yes I know there are still vulnerable people whom covid could affect badly (I'm one of them), but this is good news. Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me it's not

@chesirecat99

The ‘exact same article’ is what she said

That's my point, @TheKeatingFive. You are being pedantic.

It's ridiculous to think that N&J really meant the "exact same article", it wouldn't be news if it were... No one in their right mind would believe that was what she meant. Prof Sir John Bell predicted in November "with some confidence" (his words) that life could be back to normal by Spring 2021. That's pretty much the same.

yes this

I love the way my post has been deleted despite it being factually correct!

I would like to think that is true, but the nature of viruses is to mutate, and to mutate fairly quickly. And it is the successful ones that survive to become part of the pandemic. That's what they do. I HOPE these people are right, but I'm not betting the farm on it.

Because most of the population have now caught covid, we are in a better situation.
Let's hope that this horrific attempt to vaccinate 12-15 yr olds (and potentially 5-11 year olds wtaf!) by the back door is stopped and all those selfishly clawing for a booster jab, gain some morals and support those who are calling for them to be sent to poorer countries.

@starlight13

Because most of the population have now caught covid, we are in a better situation. Let's hope that this horrific attempt to vaccinate 12-15 yr olds (and potentially 5-11 year olds wtaf!) by the back door is stopped and all those selfishly clawing for a booster jab, gain some morals and support those who are calling for them to be sent to poorer countries.

What makes you think most have caught covid - it is still not even half is it?

What is horrific is our children are not vaccinated.

Absolutely fucking brilliant. I'm sure I read earlier in the pandemic, as more people get it that it would eventually be more like a cold, at the time I didn't believe it, but now. With the cases not particularly low, and the death rates very small (our town has just under 500 cases this week. 1 death. Similar numbers for the past 12 weeks or so) I'm so bloody excited

@starlight13

Let's hope that this horrific attempt to vaccinate 12-15 yr olds

OMG! How awful it is that their health might be protected (and that of their families, friends, and teachers) and they can get back to school and sport and life. Horrific

I read this article. She also goes on to say that more and new virus epidemics/pandemics are on the horizon and we are still highly unprepared to deal with them unfortunately.

@starlight13

Because most of the population have now caught covid, we are in a better situation. Let's hope that this horrific attempt to vaccinate 12-15 yr olds (and potentially 5-11 year olds wtaf!) by the back door is stopped and all those selfishly clawing for a booster jab, gain some morals and support those who are calling for them to be sent to poorer countries.

Yes, those selfish immoral arseholes with banjaxed immunity due to illness or medication needing a booster so they don't die. Or the equally selfish twats who work in care homes or the NHS who are exposed to covid daily. Terrible people. It's all their fault that governments haven't shared vaccines equally and they should definitely not take their booster when it's offered because then that jab will absolutely be sent to someone abroad who needs it. And of course we all know that having the booster which potentially saves your life and supporting vaccine distribution in developing countries are mutually exclusive, you can't possibly do both.

As for your comments about 'most of the population have now caught covid' and children being vaccinated, they're so ridiculous there really are no words, so have a instead.

@Sunshinealligator

Absolutely fucking brilliant. I'm sure I read earlier in the pandemic, as more people get it that it would eventually be more like a cold, at the time I didn't believe it, but now. With the cases not particularly low, and the death rates very small (our town has just under 500 cases this week. 1 death. Similar numbers for the past 12 weeks or so) I'm so bloody excited

Death rates very small?

Over 1000 people are dying a week.

@Egghead68

Covid weekly deaths are small. The media don't like to remind people that in the UK 2250 die from influenza and pneumonia weekly, just under 500 from cancer and a staggering 3500 from heart attacks.
I could go on with the statistics but hopefully you can see that covid has been scare mongered and hyped way out of proportion to the public.
Just like the petrol situation today .

[quote starlight13]@Egghead68

Covid weekly deaths are small. The media don't like to remind people that in the UK 2250 die from influenza and pneumonia weekly, just under 500 from cancer and a staggering 3500 from heart attacks.
I could go on with the statistics but hopefully you can see that covid has been scare mongered and hyped way out of proportion to the public.
Just like the petrol situation today .[/quote]
Your figures are wrong. 7000 die all year from flu in a typical year. Over 1000 a week are dying fro
Covid currently.

@Egghead68

ONS statistics 2018/2019

[quote starlight13]@Egghead68

ONS statistics 2018/2019[/quote]
That works out at approx 567 / week (using the higher figure you give) so around 20% of the figure you quoted.

The figure for flu alone would be less than that, of course.

Thanks for posting your source @starlight13 but your arithmetic is completely wrong.

This seems to indicate starlight was correct?

Rest of 2020 figures

That's interesting.

If Starlight's previous figures were correct then it appears the figures for influenza and pneumonia increased in 2020.

However, we have been told that 2020 was a year in which flu cases were unusually low.

So maybe pneumonia cases were higher ? for some reason?

I'm sure someone will come along with some more figures soon

@herecomesthesun the most likely reason that pneumonia figures were unusually high in 2020 is because Covid can cause pneumonia.

That begs the question do you get allocated twice because Covid pneumonia sounds feasible but are you in both the Covid on a death certificate and pneumonia stats

However, we have been told that 2020 was a year in which flu cases were unusually low.

There were very few deaths due to influenza in 2020. Pneumonia is caused by many things though, fungi, viruses, bacteria, including COVID and influenza or could be hospital acquired eg from being on a ventilator. Death certificates have both the immediate cause of death and any underlying causes, which is why ONS don't always separate out pneumonia and influenza stats as they could both be on the death certificate.

There is a good bar chart in the link below comparing deaths where the cause of death was influenza, pneumonia or COVID but it doesn't take into account underlying causes eg cases where they died of pneumonia with COVID/influenza.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

@Quartz2208

That begs the question do you get allocated twice because Covid pneumonia sounds feasible but are you in both the Covid on a death certificate and pneumonia stats

I don’t suppose people get double-counted but I don’t know for sure.

Certainly if people died of Covid pneumonia more than 28 days after testing positive (or whatever the previous rule was) would be counted as pneumonia deaths rather than Covid deaths. Also all those who died from Covid pneumonia who never got tested, or had a false negative test, would also be counted as pneumonia deaths. It seems to me this is the most likely explanation for excessive pneumonia(/flu) deaths last year.