Getting through the winter

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boris-johnson-publish-covid-blueprint-difficult-winter

To be honest, I'd be really happy with any of this if it keeps the kids in school and we don't have to have any sort of lockdown again.

"Boris Johnson is set to publish a Covid blueprint to prepare for a “difficult time” this winter, with jabs for younger teenagers, a booster programme, flu shots and vaccine passports all expected to be part of the measures.

Johnson is likely to strike a more cautious note than he has done in recent months, warning the public to continue being careful as cases are rising – with more than 8,000 Covid patients in hospital in the UK despite the vaccination programme.

The government is looking to extend its emergency Covid powers – ... as a last resort.

No 10 is hoping the combination of measures to be announced next week will head off the need for further draconian lockdowns after some scientists warned that a “firebreak” could be needed this autumn."

@GoldenOmber

For comparison, if the whole of the UK ended up with 3x the January peak like we have, that would be about 240,000 daily cases.

Maybe (hopefully?) hospitals could cope with that post-vaccines. But I don’t think most of us would consider 240,000 cases a day to be an example of effectively reduced spread.

Absolutely not a chance of hospitals coping with that level. They are largely struggling now and were through August. Plenty of hospitals have already stopped non-urgent surgery.

We’re basically seeing peak winter issuesin September, before we add on even normal levels of winter illnesses to the existing covid levels. I wouldn’t count on the waiting list backlog being shortened before next spring/summer tbh.

[quote Peteycat]@sleepwouldbenice thank you!!!! I'm so sick of seeing people pointing at Scotland saying "look! Cases bad so masks don't work" as if that constitutes an intelligent point or an actual scientific argument

But science aside, it is happening so why can't people say that?[/quote]
How’s wales doing?

@Delatron

True *@GoldenOmber*

Look @herecomesthsun if you think that masks will make all the difference this winter then great.

I wouldn’t object massively to masks being brought back but I really don’t think they are as protective or make as much of an impact as people think. I wouldn’t support masks in schools.

So I’m not sure what the argument is here. You want masks back. Knock yourselves out.

The argument is that they will help to a useful degree, used in crowds indoors etc. On top of boosters and 3rd doses etc. I'm not sure why anyone needs to be knocked out

So now he has a massive bonk-on for Churchill AND Ned Stark. Is he the last person in the UK to catch on to Game of Thrones?

@GoldenOmber

Example of mask rules in Scotland:

I can, right now, walk into a pub with a mask on, order a drink with a mask on, then take my mask off and stand in that exact same spot drinking it. Or I could put the mask back on to walk to a table 10ft away, then sit down at that table in a really crowded room with people all around me for the next six hours with mask off.

At a nightclub, I’d need a mask on to enter and to order a drink. But I could keep it off if I had a drink in my hand, and I could dance all night without it.

At a wedding, I would need a mask on while sitting through a 30-minute church service. But I could take it off for a reception that lasted the rest of the day, including dancing, drinking, and wandering round hugging people so long as I had a drink in my hand.

Expecting masks to do much to cut down spread in those situations is beyond optimistic. When we have opened up as much of society as we have, the effect of masks is less than it would have been before.

Maybe that is why outcomes from these behaviours are so much more successful if people are voluntarily choosing them (as people seem to do in Japan etc) instead of trying to do the minimum to get around a law. It is a real public health challenge.

@MercyBooth

I don't need to talk about Scotland versus England to know that masks are an effective tool to reduce disease spread

But i bet you would be happy to do so if the case numbers were reversed.

And you will happy to ignore the lower cases in wales which continues to have masks. Funny that

And you will happy to ignore the lower cases in wales which continues to have masks.

Why do you think rates are so high in Scotland? Out of interest

Not seen any analysis on it but obviously their schools went back earlier and that will also mean more people back at work and also higher levels of general mixing. Mostly under 30s I believe in terms of cases

It’s easy to argue either way re masks and any situation I get that. But there are always many factors involved. Hence the need in my opinion for a range of low level restrictions

Hence the need in my opinion for a range of low level restrictions

What were you thinking of?

We still have about 70% mask wearing here I reckon, London, so not the case that England has stopped entirely - PT and shops still ask for them

Rates in Scotland are higher due to early school return, Wales is on same terms as England but with more mitigations remaining.

"Maybe that is why outcomes from these behaviours are so much more successful if people are voluntarily choosing them (as people seem to do in Japan etc) instead of trying to do the minimum to get around a law. It is a real public health challenge"

Is that really how you think that people are doing the minimum to get around the law? Like everyone who don't wear masks are on an anti law scheme? No, it's alot more simple than that. They don't want their lives restricted anymore.

@Peteycat

"Maybe that is why outcomes from these behaviours are so much more successful if people are voluntarily choosing them (as people seem to do in Japan etc) instead of trying to do the minimum to get around a law. It is a real public health challenge"

Is that really how you think that people are doing the minimum to get around the law? Like everyone who don't wear masks are on an anti law scheme? No, it's alot more simple than that. They don't want their lives restricted anymore.

Well, a very large number of people still wear masks inside even when t isn't law. So clearly they are making choices about this for other reasons. I wouldn't call it "restricted" though, the reasons may vary but for at least some people it's a positive choice.

@Herecomesthsun, so you are contradicting yourself there, because you said it was because people are trying to get around the law.

Yes it is about choice, as it always should be.

[quote Peteycat]@Herecomesthsun, so you are contradicting yourself there, because you said it was because people are trying to get around the law.

Yes it is about choice, as it always should be.[/quote]
No contradiction. Read what I wrote more carefully, for comprehension

No you definitely are. You say one one breath people are trying to get round the law, then say people make choices for other reasons. What do you actually mean?

There is an argument that trying to get people to make the decisions about masks themselves off their own bat (as they have done in Japan in recent years ) is more effective than legislating for the same behaviour (possibly what PP was describing in Scotland).

It is still really important to have the mitigation, the question is how best to persuade people to behave in the way that would benefit everyone else.So not a contradiction, a public health strategy to try to get people to take responsibility for keeping everyone safe by being careful.

"Japan" style behaviour is definitely what JVT would like us to be doing,and round here it's working quite well I guess.

The problem is when you give people the choice and then no one chooses the mitgation I suppose.

And you will happy to ignore the lower cases in wales which continues to have masks. Funny that

Wales has higher rates than England at the moment. Quite a bit higher.

I don’t think masks do nothing, I’m sure they do a bit, but ‘a bit’ does not seem to do very much against something as infectious as delta.

It’s hard to understand the point of this thread to be honest.

#herecomesthe sun

"
The problem is when you give people the choice and then no one chooses the mitgation I suppose"

Yes it's called freedom.

@Delatron

There's a brilliant thread about things going back to normal right now. It's mostly positive, have a look you will like it.

@Delatron

It’s hard to understand the point of this thread to be honest.

We have a press conference next week to discuss mitigations planned for the winter. I started this thread to discuss the situation

[quote Peteycat]@Delatron

There's a brilliant thread about things going back to normal right now. It's mostly positive, have a look you will like it.[/quote]
I think you should tell Mr Johnson, it might make his job a lot easier

[quote Peteycat]@Delatron

There's a brilliant thread about things going back to normal right now. It's mostly positive, have a look you will like it.[/quote]
If you read the thread it’s already getting a lot of backlash because of its ridiculous ‘it’s over’ message. It’s certainly not brilliant, you’d have to be an utter fool to think it was over.

@Peteycat

#herecomesthe sun

"
The problem is when you give people the choice and then no one chooses the mitgation I suppose"

Yes it's called freedom.

Well lets see how things go over the winter (and what they say in the press conference).

I think it will be a lot easier to have "freedom" if a lot of us are doing what they think we need to do, anyway.

@MarshaBradyo

Hence the need in my opinion for a range of low level restrictions

What were you thinking of?

We still have about 70% mask wearing here I reckon, London, so not the case that England has stopped entirely - PT and shops still ask for them

Mask wearing definitely reducing here (northwest) but appreciate all anecdotal As I said before in my opinion vaccinated passports but with the alternative of regular free testing ( as in many countries), masks, self isolation of household cases ( funded), funding for a range of initiatives in schools ( bit late now) and possibly vaccination of teenagers ( but torn between that and boosters and donating vaccines to other countries) would be my preferences But hey ho. I don’t believe / hope it will be as bad as last year. But it could be very rough. Especially regionally. And directly and indirectly that will impact most people There is no easy answer