Will there be another lockdown

[Doublethecars]

In November time?

So are we going to see lockdowns every time there is a winter crisis from wherever virus is about? That sets a dangerous President.

It’s a bit pointless anyway. People won’t comply and family and friends contact in the home has always been the biggest spreader.
So why destroy businesses for it?

The seven day average is quite a bit higher than that

Quite - not the situation one wanted at the start of the winter

@UnmentionedElephantDildo

The seven day average is quite a bit higher than that

Quite - not the situation one wanted at the start of the winter

Really - what is the source for the seven day average being above 137 because as far as I can see from the stats the seven day average on September 1 (when it is up to) is 112 a day and the stats are 920 and do the maths we are below it (again I concede only just).

Or am I missing something?

167 deaths today. Total in last 7 days 921 - so that's (rounded)132 daily. And that's before the impact of English schools returning, and before the main virus season.

The summer rise was meant to plateau at about mid-August - putting the post 'Freedom Day' surge behind us. That was the gamble, wasn't it? Well it's not paid off as intended, as the rise has been sustained.

How much that matters remains to be seen

yes exactly @UnmentionedElephantDildo under the 137 day average - we havent been above it since March.

So not at all the

The seven day average is quite a bit higher than that

that @NannyAndJohn said at all

And at the moment it is fairly flat - we have less cases this Thursday than last. We are in the plateau at the moment

The last few days have been comfortably over 137 and looking at how admissions data (from a week or so earlier) has continued to rise, I think NannyAndJohn has nailed the trend

(will eat hat v publicly in a week if that is not the case)

@UnmentionedElephantDildo

167 deaths today. Total in last 7 days 921 - so that's (rounded)132 daily. And that's before the impact of English schools returning, and before the main virus season.

The summer rise was meant to plateau at about mid-August - putting the post 'Freedom Day' surge behind us. That was the gamble, wasn't it? Well it's not paid off as intended, as the rise has been sustained.

How much that matters remains to be seen

Where does mid August come from?

I think what a lot of people don’t realise is that thousands of people die every day normally in the U.K.

Yes, it’s tragic that people are dying of covid but death is unfortunately a part of life.

We cannot shut down society to prevent it.

Also deaths aren’t the key metric hospitalisation is.

Predicting that we might go over is a sensible prediction to make and one which may happen we may well go over the 1000 a week 137 day average. I dont think you should eat your hat if that happens because it is a valid prediction based on the data.

That is very different from stating that are current one is because it isnt. It may well by next week but stating something as fact isnt a prediction.

It also depends on if you look at the deaths reported data that for example showed 207 on the 7/9 so way over but if you look at the stats by date of death we havent gone over on any day since March

Are these England only or UK figures, and are they based on actual dates of death or dates reported?

Quite a lot of these deaths will be people who were covid + but the primary cause of death was something else.

@MarshaBradyo

Various modellings - one example

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/220894/latest-models-suggest-smaller-third-wave/

Plus I think there was NERVTAG discussion but I cant find it now

[quote UnmentionedElephantDildo]@MarshaBradyo

Various modellings - one example

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/220894/latest-models-suggest-smaller-third-wave/

Plus I think there was NERVTAG discussion but I cant find it now[/quote]
Ok thanks

This is May and mentions B.1.1.7, which I had to google to recall is alpha

It might be too out of date

If I get a moment, I'll rootle out others

mentions B.1.1.7, which I had to google to recall is alpha

One of the reasons the UK is in a worsening situation IMO is that Johnson made plans on Alpha and has mostly refused to pivot to accommodate Delta.

@lannistunut he delayed step 4 for a month?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-rise-in-protection-from-covid-booster-jabs-qxq7rq20s

Good news

Yet astra zencka boss says booster is not needed

[quote notgotthehelp]@lannistunut he delayed step 4 for a month?[/quote]
Yes, but he was advised to do far more than this, that was his only real concession.

Just been reading this thread on boosters twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1436043734181896202

Chris Whitty gave go ahead for July opening, do people mean others advised to wait? Who do you mean

Andrew Pollard interesting on boosters etc

My hat is safe - the 7 day rolling total is now 983, which averages out as 140 a day.

Boris speaking on Monday about A/W measures

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58529158

Seeking to avoid a lockdown, but looks like various other measures are very likely to be back

@UnmentionedElephantDildo it's Tuesday and it actually says

"But government sources have said further lockdowns were not being considered"

Not seeking to avoid. Paraphrasing changes the tone, unless that was intentional.

I do have to say I got the heebie jeebies watching the Proms and the tennis tonight.

No SD, hardly any masks.

We all saw what happened with the Euros.