Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Following the @JamesWard tip; using the most up to date age files this compares cases by age band for Mon-Thurs spec dates this week; recognising the last couple will certainly have more cases added, albeit not huge numbers; with the cases with spec dates for the previous Mon-Thurs (which of course will be complete).

The overall numbers are almost identical at this point; however, no great surprise, that in one age group there is a big increase, and large jumps in two others. A whole sort of ^Goldilocks* scenario :)

Looking then by region this is the 15-19s. The South East way ahead of any others. These are absolute case numbers, London of course has a much bigger population than any other region (overall and by age band), however I think the general gist is clear.

Then the !0-14s . South East has the largest figure, but not by much.

5-9s exclamation mark free very similar figures for the South East, East and North West

Moving to the biggest fallers 20-24s

and 25-29s

Very interesting, boys3!

I guess it will not be unreasonable to assume that the increase in cases in the 15-19 age group is at least partially driven by the Bank holiday weekend festivals. SE clearly stands out. It cannot be just pre-school testing - the difference with the 10-14 age group is too stark.

I am amazed by the London case trajectory. Perhaps, this is how "endemic equilibrium" looks like.

The question for me os will the vaccine wall hold up or are these teens going to give it to their parents ?

The question for me os will the vaccine wall hold up or are these teens going to give it to their parents ?

They haven't given it to their parents in Cornwall - the rate of secondary transmission post Boardmasters appeared low. Cases in SW keep falling.

It would have been more of a risk if these teens had gone straight to school to infect their unvaccinated/partially vaccinated friends but it looks like pre-school testing might have stopped some (most?) of it.

Lets hope so....Dd gave it to DH ( double vaxxed) last month.

Another area that seems to be operating in the "endemic equilibrium" mode is Leicester. We would have seen the first signs of school spread by now (with schools reopening on Aug 25) but so far the case trajectory looks encouraging.

Ditto for piggy and her DS, I believe.

I think the difference with festivals is that returning teens might be more careful and try to distance themselves from their families for a few days.

My neighbours' children did exactly that. They got themselves tested and they stayed away from their parents (as much as they could, of course). They were negative but they absolutely expected to get infected.

@Piggywaspushed yes I totally agree, it wouldn't be ethical to prevent boys getting the vaccine. I was thinking more from the POV that if you have half the school population vaccinated , then that helps everyone in that school, but it's not really an ethical way to go. Just if the JCVI are purely advising scientifically , I wonder why they haven't made the distinction and left Whitty to deal with the overall ethics and health picture .

I'd probably not get dd vaccinated if she didn't have asthma. Even though the stats are so low as to not worry me for either boys or girls, I can't understand why they're holding back and that worries me a bit.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/masks-were-working-all-along/619989/?fbclid=IwAR2zkUTiM4m88lzsbnLWKUb3DB2CfGknp-_KJMTf6ChhkJ5L7-Q3z1o546s

• large Bangladesh study shows effect of masks plus messaging....

Well not messaging - that didn’t work - but community advocates.

today's spec date graphic for England

Regional breakdown for this week so far as compared with the same point for last week. Every region bar South West showing an increase. South East remains most marked, but is not that big an increase given some of the things we've seen before For England overall around 9,500 more cases with spec dates from Monday to date, as compared with the same position last Sunday afternoon, or just past 7%.

Looking at the latest cases by age band in England.

This goes back to the 27th Aug. Cases are daily totals, where age has been confirmed.

then the same base data shown in percentage terms. The final column shows the percentage of the total England population (based on ONS) that each age band represents.

Thus the 15-19s are 5.5% of the overall England population but on 1st Sep accounted for 15.5% of cases.

For the cases added today, including those where age has now been confirmed, this is the age breakdown by spec date and overall.

Breaking down the regions to council level. The following tables split by region to show for each Council area:

The number of cases as at this time last week for Monday 23rd to Sat 28th spec dates

The number of cases for this week as reported today for spec dates Monday 30th Aug to Sat 4th Sep

The difference between the two , with each region sorted by largest absolute case number increase.

The percentage change between the two , to give a context for differing population sizes.

As an example in the North West table Wigan has increased by 119 cases and Allerdale by 113 cases. So in case number terms very little difference.

However the Wigan increase is 18%; Allerdale's increase is 46%

East of England 1

East of England 2