Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

60 per million is not the blended numbers : that's the number for boys. 2 per million is the number for girls. It bothers me that they keep reporting 60 per million.

FWIW, if I had been the parent of a healthy teenage boy (I am not - I have got a 4 year old DD), I would have recommended that they go for a single vaccine dose. This is the approach recommended in Norway:

medicalxpress.com/news/2021-09-coronavirus-vaccination-year-olds-norway.html

If I had had a teenage daughter, I would have suggested that she has both doses.

None of that negates the fact that the risk of myocarditis is higher post covid than post the vaccine , in the same group.

I own two teenage boys : and a DH with congenital heart disease. It does worry me , but for those same reasons, covid worries me far more.

Yeah, the single vaccine dose is what they are doing in 16/17 year olds here, after all. Another thing I find bewildering. Apparently not even up for discussion in 12-15 year olds. I'd like to know why.

I find this interestign in your link winter

Nevertheless, no patient had a pericardial effusion or needed to go to the ICU,

And yet, JCVI are comparing the risk of myocarditis to those who go to ICU with covid. I think 'myocarditis' is a scary word to people and perhaps rings slightly bigger alarm bells than it should. Now, endocarditis : yup; horrific.

Yes, Piggy, you are right - the 60 per 1 million is the estimated number for boys, my mistake. I was thinking about different analysis that comes up with a higher estimate based on the Israel data:

medium.com/@wpegden/weighing-myocarditis-cases-acip-failed-to-balance-the-harms-vs-benefits-of-2nd-doses-d7d6b3df7cfb

I definitely would not want to be Chris Whitty right now!

I definitely would not want to be Chris Whitty right now!

Yes, I cannot agree more! His job was already unbearable and it got 10 times worse yesterday.

@Piggywaspushed

Yeah, the single vaccine dose is what they are doing in 16/17 year olds here, after all. Another thing I find bewildering. Apparently not even up for discussion in 12-15 year olds. I'd like to know why.

I’d like to know why too as it’s not adding up. I don’t think it’s about saving them for world wide vaccine. I do wonder if they’re waiting on data regarding some other concerns.

It seems they are waiting for other countries to gather long term data. But the long term data they will get on myocarditis will be the same as already exists. It doesn't seem to act differently from myocarditis in general.

I hope Chris Whitty and co decide to give parents the choice. ‘Marginal benefit’ is still a benefit in my book.
There’s lots of folk on other threads saying that immunisation doesn’t reduce transmission or infection only hospital admissions and deaths but is this fact? I thought we had decent data now that said vaccines do lower transmission and thus infection rates, even delta?

I don't know whether anyone has already posted this preprint. Table S3 is of interest.

Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK. By the Covid 19 Infection Survey Team, UK.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v1

Sewage report for July: www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-28th-june-2021-to-26th-july-2021/environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-wastewater-monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-in-england-july-2021.
At least we have it now, but it it very churlish to feel irritated that we only see it a month in arrears?

Still at 70% England samples, and no report showing outcome of genome testing (presumably because it's just boring Delta everywhere). Summary:
Data are available in the accompanying spreadsheet ‘EMHPwastewater concentration data. July 2021’. Table 1 contains the weekly average concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA (gene copies per litre) in wastewater at all Sewage Treatment Works (STW)EMHPsample (date range of 28 days; 28th June to 26th July). This data is visualised in Figures 10 & 11. Between week 1 and week 2, there was generally a decrease in concentration across England (there was a decrease in the weekly average at 179 of 262STW). There was generally an increase from week 2 to week 3 (there was an increase at 238 of 262STW), and relatively consistent concentration from week 3 to week 4 (average concentration increased at 134STWand decreased at 128STW). However, these trends are not consistent across all sites and there is variability betweenSTWs.

Remember the press conference slides, especially back in March/April 2020?
Former five adviser Lee Cain (ally of DC and similarly employed elsewhere now!) lifts the lid in an interview for the BBC:

“Specifically, he says staff need to be trained so they can produce video clips, use social media and design graphics.

He noted that in the early days of the pandemic, "put starkly, there was nobody with the ability to create slides for the daily press conference" and that often the slides were only sent "moments before press conferences were due to begin" ”

I’d like to know why too as it’s not adding up. I don’t think it’s about saving them for world wide vaccine. I do wonder if they’re waiting on data regarding some other concerns.

Agree, but the data doesn't need to be in relation to children. They could know that there is an upcoming shortage of vaccines, or that the current people who have been double vaccinated need more than just a booster, or that it isn't effective enough and they only get one chance to get parents onside. I guess we will only find out in the future

Sorry if I've missed it, I have scrolled back, is there a link to the research with the side effect stats? I have a 13 year old dd who has mild asthma, but it's become sports induced and we're still trying out a new inhaler to get a handle on it (she gets shortness of breath rather than an attack). It's not completely sorted it yet, so my feeling is the vaccine is less risk than her getting covid, even though she luckily doesn't fall into the widened group the jcvi has recommended vaccinating. I think I will suggest she has it but I'd like to read more into this .

Why can't the JCVI recommend for girls and not boys as the stats seem starkly different?

Sorry doh just saw it a few posts back rang much

That’s an interesting point isn’t it, boys : girls?

And I think the risks associated with Covid are greater in males than females in that age group as in all age groups.

It's not a female disease though? When HPV was only offered to girls , there were obvious reasons for that (now revisited). I am not sure it would be ethically acceptable to bar boys from the vaccine when so many of them would not get myocarditis as a consequence. They would also not , therefore, be playing their part in protecting the wider community, whereas girls would... not sure how that works!

The somewhat unexpected origins of the Innova tests:

www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government?fbclid=IwAR36gAmIy4Y_FNsUzf_JGSZRnuVEp5SEhsYVWKWKMKISveHErFFHG-g1CHQ

‘Dr. Tim Peto, an Oxford University scientist who led the initial government study, said Innova was chosen after its test “passed the threshold of performance” and it became clear the company could supply the test in large quantities.

“It wasn’t taken forward because it was clearly the best of the bunch. It was the one that was available,” he said.‘

Today's England spec date graphic

and week to do date, and equivalent point last week cases for each region.

The Tim Peto point re Innova tests isn’t necessarily controversial per se of course, only when read in conjunction with the rest of the article.