Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Age breakdown of cases in England - shown as percentage of daily cases. From 17th (15-19 BoardMaster peak) to yesterday (as so far reported).

The two larger tables simply split the first table to make reading it a bit easier.

15-19s 20% of cases on 17th Aug; just past 15% in the last few days.

10-14s currently at 14.7% of cases; 6% on 17th Aug

Interestingly Zoe is down today

I don't think that's that surprising, the positive tests in boys3 figures above show that the increase cases was from increased LFD's in school age groups - so almost certainly not cases that would've been picked up before, so Zoe would've already had those.

Does imply that the later festivals weren't that high, which presumably reflects very high previous infection in those groups.

The anecdotes about large numbers in specific schools is presumably schools that hadn't had any real breakout before.

For context the actual daily cases the earlier percentage splits were based on. These won't quite match the full specimen date figures as any unassigned ages are not included. The daily difference though is minimal.

Some regional breakdown - showing percentage split within that region each day.

Starting with the South West. Over 40% of cases on Aug 17th in the 15-19 age group.

In the tables that follow nothing yet close to that, although Reading and Leeds have competition in the school return, and (Reading and Leeds) probably need a few more days to play out.

South East 25% of cases on 31st in the 15-19s.

London for the period shown the 15-19s have only become the peak group in the last day or so.

North West

Yorkshire and the Humber

@sirfredfredgeorge

Interestingly Zoe is down today

I don't think that's that surprising, the positive tests in boys3 figures above show that the increase cases was from increased LFD's in school age groups - so almost certainly not cases that would've been picked up before, so Zoe would've already had those.

Does imply that the later festivals weren't that high, which presumably reflects very high previous infection in those groups.

The anecdotes about large numbers in specific schools is presumably schools that hadn't had any real breakout before.

Yes this is what I was hoping. So suggests we needn’t be too worried about the spike in reported cases? Meanwhile the fall in Zoe numbers feels like a good sign..

My memory had Johnson & Johnson supplies arriving in September, it's now September, any knowledge on if they are, and if they'll be used?

My friend just came out of hospital after Covid. They were only tested once on admission over a 3 week stay - does this mean that anyone who might die on day 29 or 30 will not end up in the Covid death figures?

Also, on their admission it says pneumonia (the SARS Cov 2 positive swab was only confirmed after admission),. Does that mean that the hospitalisation figures are wrong too? They had a longer than average stay but there were many more people in and out than I see reflected on the gov dashboard for admissions in my local Trust?

The Reading/Leeds effect seems pretty small. We are coming up to a week later so I was expecting huge increase in cases by now. I know piggy has said there’s lots of chatter on MN boards about cases from Leeds/Reading but considering 175,000 attended the uplift in cases could have been huge and that doesn’t seem to be reflected in the data.
I’m wondering if allowing 16’s to have the vaccine was rather timely in the case of Reading/Leeds, which is predominantly attended by 16-18 year olds celebrating exam results. The vaccine wasn’t available for the same age group for Boardmasters was it? I’m wondering if that’s made all the difference.
ALL dd2’s 16 year old friends have had the vaccine and I’m wondering if that high uptake is across the whole of England.

The vaccine wouldn't really have had time to work though would it?

I have been rootling out some data about myocarditis today.

Most interesting stat:

12- 17 year old males : most post vaccine cases of myocarditis mild/treatable and at 60 per million (largely after second dose ; giving one does to younger teens doesn't seem to have been countenanced, oddly)

same group: cases of myocarditis during/after Covid 450 per million.

That is a huge difference. I find the focus on that single issue rather illogical. It is the one issue they focus on re the vaccine and yet the risk is tiny, and far lower than the risk of the same condition from Covid. I am just really confused by that!

www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocarditis-is-more-common-after-covid-19-infection-than-vaccination/

The anecdotes about large numbers in specific schools is presumably schools that hadn't had any real breakout before.

That's only if you they hold on to pre-existing immunity or that there weren't large pockets within the community that didn't get previously infected. Look at Merthyr Tydfil.
mobile.twitter.com/ArtySmokesPS/status/1433848094966390788

You’re right piggy the vaccines became available on Monday 23rd so only a few days prior to the festivals. I was sure DD2’s friends had it earlier than that but they can’t have done. So is bizwit’s theory correct and they’ve some immunity from previous infections? Or is it still early days? Hopefully the former as that then bodes well(ish) for school/work/life return given there’s practically zero mitigation.
Out of interest do we have vaccine uptake data for 16-17 year olds?

Thanks for the graphs boys, really interesting as usual.

I think it's still early days and will get picked up by the going back to school LFTs. I suspect many with mild symptoms won't test because they want to be there for the start of term.

Interesting stat piggy. It does seem that myocarditis is the only side effect of concern. I read somewhere that it mostly affected makes (as per your data) but also older teenage boys - like 16/17 but heaven knows where I read that!
There was also chatter about the vaccine affecting menstruation but I’ve seen zero data in that regard. I’m not sure if it was in relation to AZ and menopause symptoms or Pfizer and puberty. It’s all been anecdotal though.
The JCVI have made good decisions to date so I’m wondering if it’s just the myocardial issue that’s at okay or if they’re awaiting data on other factors.

*males (not makes)
A lot are doing the first LFTs at school prior to start lonelyplanet albeit I’m sure many schools are simply too large for this. My DDs have to register home results both on the NHS app and a school form. It’s tricky to wriggle out of but I guess they could lie. You’d hope people would have more social responsibility but…

Yes, the teenage boys aged 16-17 is correct (in fact the most affected age group goes right up to 30) which is why they are only doing the single dose for 16/17 year olds at present.

Not exactly data but this Zoe video was interesting particularly towards the end when vaccines for children were discussed.

The point was made about current childhood immunisation and how for the most part they have a long lasting benefit to the child themselves and a long safety track record. One speaker makes the point that the only one used particularly for community spread rather than to protect the child themselves is the nasal flu which has a long established safety record. They felt vaccines should go first to vulnerable groups in other countries where the risk/benefit is clearer.

Another interesting point was about a possible and unknown hormonal link if it’s just boys suffering the heart inflammation issue.

Re: myocarditis

The New Scientist article refers to the US research. The problem is most of the information coming from CDC on myocarditis post vaccines and Covid is of questionable quality. It seems JCVI heavily discounted the US findings and focused its analysis on the data from Israel and Canada (which appears much more reliable).

Generally on the numbers:

1. The blended number of post vaccine myocarditis cases (60 per 1 million) masks the differences between (i) boys and girls and (ii) healthy (normal BMI) and less healthy teenagers. The specific group that is at the highest risk of vaccine side effects is healthy sporty boys. This is also the category that is at the lowest risk of developing complications post Covid.

1. There are concerns that post vaccine myocarditis might have longer term consequences than it is understood currently. The potential red flag is the presence of LGE (late gadolinium enhancement). Even the pro-vaccine article from the US health journal acknowledges it is a risk:

www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/93973

In non-vaccine-associated myocarditis, the presence of LGE is associated with increased risk for adverse cardiovascular events during follow-up. Thus, longitudinal studies of patients with myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccine will be important to better understand long-term risks.

The specific group that is at the highest risk of vaccine side effects is healthy sporty boys. This is also the category that is at the lowest risk of developing complications post Covid.

I think that is true of myocarditis in general, though : so that same group would be most at risk of heart complications post covid.

There was also chatter about the vaccine affecting menstruation

No one will give a monkey’s about this anyway.