Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Do you think uni students testing before starting back could be bumping up the numbers?

@PamelaGotown "The case numbers for 13/9 were 34,038."

The number reported on 13/9 was 30,825. The number you quote is positive tests (by specimen date) on 13/9. We will not have a comparable number for 20th for some time.

Incidentally, today my town has had its highest number of cases (by date reported) by a considerable margin an increase of 130% on last Monday (by date reported).

This is an interesting graph - cases drop off from age 16, speculation that this my be due to vaccination rate in 16+ age group.

I am sure 10-14 went up quite a lot in September last year in this same way (ie overtook other age groups including older teens). So this age group includes top primary kids and lower secondary. At points last year we might have looked at different mask rules but it can't be that now. I wonder if their social behaviours are just different : more clubs, more playing, more time spent together in the same classroom with the 10 and 11 year olds. Less sense of personal space? parents fret more and so test them more?
All guesses!

Today we have numerous children off with 'tonsilitis' (self declared of course!) and 'heavy colds'. Hmm... oh well, at least they're off!

Anecdotally, at that age boys and girls are still quite "touchy feely" with each other, whether its girls linking arms or boys bundling on the school field, so more close contact than older teenagers imo

I don’t believe so - yet - as the numbers in the most likely age groups , 15-19s and 20-24s are continuing to fall. Whether that continues as unis start is a whole other question.

DS3 starts end of this week (fresher); a lot his friends headed off over the past weekend. From some of the pictures he’s shared Nottingham worth keeping an eye on. DS2, finalist, has been back for getting in for a couple of weeks. He’s in a private house rather than halls though.

Yes, I think so. We start at year 9 in my area and they paw each other so much!

@boys3

I don’t believe so - yet - as the numbers in the most likely age groups , 15-19s and 20-24s are continuing to fall. Whether that continues as unis start is a whole other question.

DS3 starts end of this week (fresher); a lot his friends headed off over the past weekend. From some of the pictures he’s shared Nottingham worth keeping an eye on. DS2, finalist, has been back for getting in for a couple of weeks. He’s in a private house rather than halls though.

I suspect in a few weeks all those student areas will shoot up again...

There hasn't really been any public messaging about testing before they go (back) this time so I doubt they are in anything like large numbers.

speculation that this my be due to vaccination rate in 16+ age group

I much prefer the "went to pubs, night clubs and festivals so already had it" as the mechanism, mainly 'cos the exact opposite pattern happened after boardmasters right?

But either way, there's no great data to justify either hypothesis, although the fact that the vaccination rates are even higher in the older age groups, and these older age groups have higher rates doesn't particularly point to vaccination alone being the decider.

It’s interesting to look back to the same point a year ago. no lateral flows back then, not far of 800,000 logged so far for yesterday.

Monday 21st September 2020 reported a grand total of 32 cases for Sunday 20th spec date. Tuesday then took Sunday’s total to 1441, Wednesday to 2536, Thursday to 3505 and by the Friday reporting it had reached 4232. Roughly where it stayed until 3rd October when a DFS moment discovered a further 257 cases with a 20th Sep spec date. It currently stands a full year on at 4624, of which 206, or 4.4%, were in the 10-14 age band.

Bordois, thanks, that graph’s great, what’s the source please?

@boys3

I don’t believe so - yet - as the numbers in the most likely age groups , 15-19s and 20-24s are continuing to fall. Whether that continues as unis start is a whole other question.

DS3 starts end of this week (fresher); a lot his friends headed off over the past weekend. From some of the pictures he’s shared Nottingham worth keeping an eye on. DS2, finalist, has been back for getting in for a couple of weeks. He’s in a private house rather than halls though.

Exeter Uni already started last week. Straw poll suggests most have already succumbed to freshens flu. Most relying in LFT, but DD took an additional PCR which was negative, so maybe getting back to "normal". All seem to have sore throats and coughs. PCR results back same day, which was pretty impressive.

There hasn't really been any public messaging about testing before they go (back) this time so I doubt they are in anything like large numbers

Lots of university messaging though, and free LFT's, easy PCR, and vaccination pop ups all on-site. It's all visible, and heavily promoted. Free masks on entry to buildings too.

I’m hearing and reading about a lot of people with positive LFD results who go on to have negative PCRs. It worries me that a neg PCR is taken as the LFD result being wrong, whilst statistically this is far less probably that that the PCR result is a false negative.

What do others think?

@BigWoollyJumpers

There hasn't really been any public messaging about testing before they go (back) this time so I doubt they are in anything like large numbers

Lots of university messaging though, and free LFT's, easy PCR, and vaccination pop ups all on-site. It's all visible, and heavily promoted. Free masks on entry to buildings too.

Not at DS's uni, BWJ!

@Bordois

Anecdotally, at that age boys and girls are still quite "touchy feely" with each other, whether its girls linking arms or boys bundling on the school field, so more close contact than older teenagers imo

Some time spent supervising Y10 lockers at break/lunch time might change your mind.

@JanglyBeads

I’m hearing and reading about a lot of people with positive LFD results who go on to have negative PCRs. It worries me that a neg PCR is taken as the LFD result being wrong, whilst statistically this is far less probably that that the PCR result is a false negative.

What do others think?

Really? Is that true? In which case, why is the recommendation to confirm with a PCR? I thought PCR tests were supposed to be much more accurate than LFTs?

It worries me that a neg PCR is taken as the LFD result being wrong, whilst statistically this is far less probably that that the PCR result is a false negative

I think you need more evidence that your statistics are as you claim, this is not the result of any validation I've seen. The accuracy of PCR is considerably higher than LFD, and the situations where PCR is a false negative is when the LFD is also a false negative, ie before the virus is detectable in nose/throat.

OK, but I’m asking what the probability is of a false positive LFD result followed by a false negative PCR result.

A false negative on PCR is commonly due to too little virus being present, I.e. cleared from the system. If the LFT was positive due to virus but it's cleared, then the risk is only reduced contact tracing. So I would think from a public health perspective it's going to have a negligible impact at best.

Thinking about it, that probably would be more common with younger people as more of them recover quickly. Isolation isn't a punishment, it's just to reduce opportunities to spread the virus, and those who clear it quickly are least likely to spread.

However, generally it's the PCRs that lurk positively and pick up old virus for longest. LFDs tend to test negative about 10 - 14 days after infection (but you aren't supposed to do one for 30 days +) and PCRs are either 56 days or 90, depending on which source you believe. So I still find it weird on those grounds.

Interestingly cases in Scotland are plummeting with no additional restrictions/ action - hopefully if cases in England spike then we will follow the same pattern.

Attendance in schools very low on 16 September. Some data to crunch :

www.theguardian.com/education/2021/sep/21/more-than-100000-pupils-off-school-in-england-last-week-amid-covid-surge

@isthisok22

Interestingly cases in Scotland are plummeting with no additional restrictions/ action - hopefully if cases in England spike then we will follow the same pattern.

I know it’s so interesting. Meanwhile England has been essentially plateaued with little hills for a while now. I guess that may reflect the fact that in England there are so many different “pockets” that are peaking and troughing at different times. Where I am in London infections are plummeting for example.