Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

What size MSOA? In a typical MSOA that's about 1 in 753 people, in a 2 week period that's 1 in 377. If you account that most are in school age then that seems about right. You've also got to bear in mind that not everyone in a school lives within one MSOA, and that cases cluster so you might well know everyone infected.

Does anyone know what last Monday's numbers were at the time? Please

@isthisok22

Does anyone know what last Monday's numbers were at the time? Please

20/9
UK 36,100
Eng 26,905

13/9
UK 30,825
Eng 21,077

So a massive jump week on week.

Looks like we're beginning to see the school effect.

@isthisok22

Does anyone know what last Monday's numbers were at the time? Please

34,000...

All the data can be found here:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Note that yesterday's figure was anomalously low, and may well have impacted today's reported numbers.

@NannyAndJohn Oh Nanny ❤️

Funny the people who only show up when they think there's bad news to spread...

Hospital metrics now starting to fall in line with the fall in cases. Death rates are slowing and should start falling soon.

It looks as if cases are rising amongst kids, if this is the case then the hospital metrics should continue to drop in line with the drop in adult cases 🤞

Note that yesterday's figure was anomalously low, and may well have impacted today's reported numbers.

Yes, Wales don't report cases on Saturdays and Scotland had a day last week where they didn't report at all so had a ba klog to clear.

You're not comparing like with like @Warhertisuff - the number reported on 13/9 was 30,825. We won't know the actual number of tests for today for some days.

I assume there will be a week of catch up as numbers get added from Scotland.

@NannyAndJohn

30800.

So a massive jump week on week.

Looks like we're beginning to see the school effect.

That's Tuesday's figure.

There were only 10,778 cases yesterday though. I could be delighting in the fact that numbers had halved over the week!... But that would be stupid.

The best measure is a week to week comparison, which shows a 12% reduction so @NannyAndJohn 's "we're all doomed" narrative isn't really in tune with the figures!

"Funny the people who only show up when they think there's bad news to spread..."

I think that's a bit unfair @Bordois - we all have different ways of coping and managing our different anxieties and concerns.

The best measure is a week to week comparison, which shows a 12% reduction

Agree this is more useful

Plus hospitalisation decreasing as Bordois says

@Stilltalkstotrees

You're not comparing like with like *@Warhertisuff* - the number reported on 13/9 was 30,825. We won't know the actual number of tests for today for some days.

Fair point, apologies.

Again @Warhertisuff - you're looking at the wrong data set.

Sorry @Warhertisuff - cross post.

@Stilltalkstotrees

"Funny the people who only show up when they think there's bad news to spread..."

I think that's a bit unfair @Bordois - we all have different ways of coping and managing our different anxieties and concerns.

Not unfair at all, its a fact. Never seen when things appear to be going well.

Not wishing to be a doom merchant - I have no idea where the numbers are going (and obviously we all hope for the best) but this is a data thread, so it must be pointed out that there is a lag to both hospital numbers and weekly fluctuations.

Sorry. I'll crawl back under my rock.

Its likely cases will start rising - largely in younger people with some spill over into older age groups, but this was expected and will hopefully be short-lived as we move into the endemic phase.

@Stilltalkstotrees

You're not comparing like with like *@Warhertisuff* - the number reported on 13/9 was 30,825. We won't know the actual number of tests for today for some days.

The case numbers for 13/9 were 34,038.

@Bordois

Its likely cases will start rising - largely in younger people with some spill over into older age groups, but this was expected and will hopefully be short-lived as we move into the endemic phase.

Hopefully, yes.

But we were saying the same thing this time last year too.

For the millionth time...

WE
DIDN'T
HAVE
VACCINES
LAST
YEAR

@isthisok22

Does anyone know what last Monday's numbers were at the time? Please

@isthisok22 if you mean a true like for like comparison then as far as England goes.

9591 reported today with a spec date of yesterday as compared with 6305 for the equivalent reporting point last week.

The figure for Saturday now stands at 18328, with 13426 added today. Equivalent last Monday was 14442 for the Saturday after two days, with 10425 of them added on the Monday reporting.

Of the cases reported today for England just under 87% had a spec date of yesterday or Saturday.

Of the 9591 cases showing with yesterday’s spec date, 9575 have a confirmed age band.

3657 , or 38%, are in the 10-14 age band.

For context the previous Sunday spec date now totals 17364 cases, with 3395 of these in the 10-14 age band.

As far as Saturday 18th goes 18290 cases, again this is just England, with an age band confirmed. Of these 4758 in the 10-14s, so just over 1 in 4.

So for that age band the upward trend, as shown in the age tables I posted yesterday, continues to gather pace.

At the moment, although it is certainly a little too early to draw any firm conclusions, no obvious signs of seepage into the older age bands.