Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Won't kids 10-14 (and above) be taking the infection home from school to their parents? (As DD has with us). Our school are no longer telling us how many positive cases they have, just that it is sufficient for them to bring back some protective measures. Whilst the vaccine will hopefully stop most of the infections, it won't stop all.

I agree with Here from a page or two back. I don't think we're seeing the complete effects of the schools return yet.

www.thenational.scot/news/19590599.paramedics-call-army-set-field-hospitals-scotland-amid-covid-surge/?fbclid=IwAR0q16g_2O8M0sN_7vhhdMZoIAl6vwE3hned_pSeJooHm_WUv49ayuFJKTI

Is Scotland faring so much worse purely because of them delaying opening up until just before the new school year started?

Sorry, x-posted! I completely agree. Plenty of secondary school parents that I know of simply aren't testing themselves and just saying they have a cold.

@Sweetpeasaremadeforbees

Sorry, x-posted! I completely agree. Plenty of secondary school parents that I know of simply aren't testing themselves and just saying they have a cold.

If lots of cases were being missed due to people not testing then the positivity rate would be rising. I'm not aware that is happening?

There are loads of non covid illnesses around at the moment. A colleague has a virus that presents very similarly to covid (fever, cough, flu like) but she's double jabbed, has had covid and has tested negative repeatedly. I think the gap between lifting restrictions and the start of the new term has done us a lot of favours.

a few age tables for England from 1st Sep up to cases with a spec date of yesterday.

The picture is not exactly a great surprise.

Although, as yet and I would agree it is too early to say with a larger degree of confidence, no sign of seepage into the older age groups.

The one that did strike with was the 5-9s and 15-19s. 1st September seven day rates of 285 and 678 respectively. As at 16th September hardly any gap at all : 428 vs 450.

This first table simply shows the absolute number of cases each day.

This is the percentage of cases within each age band each day. 1 in 5 in the 10-14s at the moment.

Is Scotland faring so much worse purely because of them delaying opening up until just before the new school year started?

This is another situation where the covid figures don't really make sense with the ambulance shortage, although unlike England it's slightly more plausible that it's delays admitting due to covid tests as the bottleneck appears to be at the hospital entrance rather than in drivers which was the English problem.

Are the stats on overall Scotland admissions about, are they just really high? www.opendata.nhs.scot/dataset/hospital-beds-information is obviously very old, but throughout 2020 including Q1 where covid numbers in hosipital were higher than now, the emergency occupancy seemed to be 73% at most, now obviously that's going to be down to the lack of other admittances during lockdown etc. But is this again really more about the delay of treatment and failure to be ready for it and continued lack of access to GPs than specifically covid directly?

This is the 7 day rate per 100,000 by age band, conditional formatted by each individual age band.

and the same table with a single conditional format covering all the data shown.

This is the 7 day rate per 100,000 by age band, conditional formatted by each individual age band

That 6th September date must show really how insulated school children are from the main drivers of infection up until then (presumably because their parents mix less due to baby sitters etc. ?) The question now comes if there is an entirely distinct group of adults who were also insulated from that spread, but aren't insulated from the children so we'll get another wave from them.

@boys3

This is the percentage of cases within each age band each day. 1 in 5 in the 10-14s at the moment.

What is your percentage showing? It looks like it's suggesting everyone 10-14 caught covid in the last month, and loads of them are repeat infections, which obviously can't be correct.

@MRex the percentage is just the daily case breakdown across the age groups.

So on 16th September 20.4% of cases were in the 10-14s, on 1st September it was 9.9%; and if you went a couple of weeks further back (not shown on the table posted) typically it was around 6%. Whereas back then over 20% of daily cases were in the 15-19 age group.

Ah, got it, thanks

Does anyone know if self isolation rules have changed? DH tested positive via LFT 3 days ago, then confirmed by PCR 2 days later. 119 have said that the 10 days isolation starts from PCR date not LFT date. I can’t find anything on this?

@Iknowitisheresomewhere

Does anyone know if self isolation rules have changed? DH tested positive via LFT 3 days ago, then confirmed by PCR 2 days later. 119 have said that the 10 days isolation starts from PCR date not LFT date. I can’t find anything on this?

Did he get symptoms in the interim? That triggers a restart: "If you are isolating because of a positive test result but did not have any symptoms, and you develop COVID-19 symptoms within your isolation period, start a new 10 day isolation period by counting 10 full days from the day following your symptom onset." www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

No. What we now think to be mild symptoms before, but didn’t at the time (headache). Nothing since.

Did he register the LFT?

(If he did, then I'm all out of ideas for why they've taken the PCR test date.)

Yes. I think someone may have made a mistake.

They go from date of onset of symptoms , or positive PCR if no symptoms, don't they? I don't think the LFTs are counted in their calculations.

So now I’m confused, don’t you have to isolate from the date of a positive LFT?

LFT definitely count, because there is something that has changed which is that a negative PCR now only ‘cures’ (nullifies) a positive LFT if taken within 2 days of the LFT.

In England, if you do not get a PCR test within 2 days of a positive rapid lateral flow test at a test site, you will need to self-isolate for 10 full days even if you get a negative PCR result.

From www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/test-results/positive-test-result/

Quite far down the page.

Oh. LFT at a test site. Not quite sure how that interacts with home LFTs.

My msoa doesnt look right on the interactive map its gone green. And only around 11 cases in a week. Yet i know of at least 3 just at our school in the last 2 weeks. Its had a large drop