Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Here Com CoV Study

comcovstudy.org.uk/about

@MRex

Ronapreve treatment approved by MHRA last month; UK gov says they have bought in a lot and it can be used from Monday: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58602999.

It will be offered to those over-50 without the necessary antibodies, and those aged 12-49 who are immuno-compromised - for example those with certain cancers - who struggle to mount an antibody response, either through being exposed to Covid, or from vaccination.

The treatment antibodies - casirivimab and imdevimab - will then be administered to patients through a drip. The drug works by binding to the virus' spike protein, stopping it from being able to infect the body's cells.

The antibody therapy attacks the virus, unlike other Covid treatments such as the steroid dexamethasone that calm the body's overactive immune system.

Amazing news 🤩

I think it means that not all yesterday's cases have been reported yet. Public Health site states that the backlog might impact tomorrow's figues aswell. Probably best to wait a few days and see the numbers for the week.

Yes, looks like a big chunk has been added to todays reported cases.

Anacdata alert!
I work as a tutor and although I have tried to do online teaching during Covid, I really hate it and decided I needed to get back to face-to-face work. I started this last Tuesday! The first student I went to see started with symptoms on Tuesday evening and has tested positive!
We were a metre apart in a ventilated room for an hour. Anyone any thoughts on the statistical likelihood of me getting Covid. I'm double vacced and have had a negative LFT today. I'm waiting for PCR results.

Looks like a big chunk has been added to todays reported cases

Worth remembering that the vote on extending the Covid Act is coming up on 30th September, and that it wouldn't be the first time figures appeared to "bounce" just before such a vote

Cynic 🤣

@EducatingArti

Anacdata alert! I work as a tutor and although I have tried to do online teaching during Covid, I really hate it and decided I needed to get back to face-to-face work. I started this last Tuesday! The first student I went to see started with symptoms on Tuesday evening and has tested positive! We were a metre apart in a ventilated room for an hour. Anyone any thoughts on the statistical likelihood of me getting Covid. I'm double vacced and have had a negative LFT today. I'm waiting for PCR results.

can I just wish you good luck?

@Bordois

I think it means that not all yesterday's cases have been reported yet. Public Health site states that the backlog might impact tomorrow's figues aswell. Probably best to wait a few days and see the numbers for the week.

Yes, looks like a big chunk has been added to todays reported cases.

So what’s the figure that has been reported for Scotland today?

6116 was 4298 last sat

@EducatingArti

Anacdata alert! I work as a tutor and although I have tried to do online teaching during Covid, I really hate it and decided I needed to get back to face-to-face work. I started this last Tuesday! The first student I went to see started with symptoms on Tuesday evening and has tested positive! We were a metre apart in a ventilated room for an hour. Anyone any thoughts on the statistical likelihood of me getting Covid. I'm double vacced and have had a negative LFT today. I'm waiting for PCR results.

Good luck. 4 days is the peak for infection likelihood, so maybe doing ok so far. I wouldn't bet good money either way though.

England down again compared to last week 22956 from 23825

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Looks like a big chunk has been added to todays reported cases

Worth remembering that the vote on extending the Covid Act is coming up on 30th September, and that it wouldn't be the first time figures appeared to "bounce" just before such a vote

Have come to expect 'technical/reporting issues' around the time of major change or when you would expect to see the results of the changes. Coincidence of course!

Does anyone know where there are any heat maps showing change in numbers by age group?

There are studies published on AZ/Pfizer mixing but not JJ/Pfizer or Moderna/Pfizer SirFred

Thanks Choconuttolata, it was just the US "no other studies" then in the evidence, as they don't use AZ.

@Bordois

Cynic 🤣

Guilty as charged Though some call it experience and observation ...

From Traveling Tabbie, Scottish cases by specimen date. Almost 3000 cases reported today were for Wednesday.
Looks to be gently decreasing.

Thank you all for your good luck wishes. Negative lateral flow and waiting for a PCR. Feel a bit headachy but didn't sleep well last night so it could just be that!

@herecomesthsun

Does anyone know where there are any heat maps showing change in numbers by age group?

You can find them by area on the dashboard in the cases tab if you select an area. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

@Bordois

England down again compared to last week 22956 from 23825

Ah great thank you 👍🏻

@lonelyplanet many thanks

England looks like it’s flattening again. So curious. It really does seem like we may be reaching endemic immunity… I guess it’s just a waiting game to see what transpires as the weather gets colder..

England cases particularly reducing in 40-44 and 15-19 groups, yet increasing for 10-14 and fairly static 5-9. It looks inevitable looking at the last few weeks that older age group cases will drop further now, but child cases will continue to rise. Remains to be seen what happens if older teens choose to be vaccinated, whether that is enough to stem spread for young ones.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

It looks inevitable looking at the last few weeks that older age group cases will drop further now, but child cases will continue to rise

Which is exactly as we'd expect, the only groups who have not had free mixing in high risk for transmission areas since the end of restrictions are under 15's.

I can't see how vaccinating older teens will do anything to stop the spread in younger age groups. The groups will follow the paths of every other group who mixes extensively, and I'm not convinced taking longer and longer to get there is actually helpful.

I wonder whether it will be a continued case of ripple and subside based on specific factors?

So 15-19s go up - festivals. 40-44, maybe 45-55 go up as a result since those are the typical parental ages for that group.

Then these groups subside, possibly to go up again in a couple of weeks as a result of university freshers' weeks etc, but without the onward transmission to the parental age group.

Then 10-14s go up - schools - followed by their parental groups - 30-40s. Then possibly subside.

5-9s are interesting, because they are also at school, and not vaccinated at all, but IME as a primary school teacher are very very rarely tested (too inconvenient for parents, atypical symptoms and not suggested as part of regular school lft testing). Quite possible that their effect will mainly be picked up through a rise in their parental groups - 25 upwards.

(Completely anecdotally, in my primary class I have had 5 children off in the last 2 weeks, so just under 1 in 6 of the class. 3 'tummy bugs', 1 'headache', 1 'cold'. None tested for Covid.)