Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

(cost actually even higher, as that was just cost of test, distribution would've added a load more of course)

I'm missing boys fantastic graphs and proper data.

The LFTs do seem a bit of a false security sometimes. I often see people saying on Facebook "I have X, Y and Z symptoms and feel awful but it's ok, it's not covid because I've done an LFT and it was negative".

I would pay for them if I knew they are accurate as there are some situations where it's nice to know either way (with no symptoms).

Ventilators for schools? . Hopefully that was a typo snd you meant ventilation?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/17/no-10-accused-of-sidelining-behaviour-experts-on-latest-covid-measures

Ventilators for schools? shock. Hopefully that was a typo snd you meant ventilation?

Originally, but I thought I'd keep it in, how much safer would we all feel if every primary school had a high dependency unit!

But he added that SPI-B participants tended to be senior academics, who could also speak more freely on some issues

And others might think they're all privileged old white men. I'm not worried at all, the behavioural advice had awful results in the early days - it kept people shut away in fear - not exercising, not having social contacts. And for that decision to use fear as control, which was behavioural scientists I will never forgive.

And unaccountable advisors who don't get to ever explain what they get wrong (all the modellers too) doesn't give me any confidence in their actual advice.

PHE hired its own psychologists. If any of the academics wanted the roles, they should have applied, but there is still behavioural advice being given it's just internal civil service staff now giving it.

Well, I am remembering the episode last September when Johnson and Sunak were listening to Heneghan and Gupta rather than their usual advisors about the mooted September circuit breaker. That was a bit concerning.

Was the circuit breaker that successful in Wales?

I remember they were in dire straits too soon after

Would a circuitbreaker at the time suggested by Government scientists have worked?

I seem to remember we were in dire straits soon after (though I guess this isn't data sorry)

I think circuit breakers were a bit like tiers

Good in theory but not that effective in reality. A breaker works for the time it is installed but not much after

But it would take some one with more data and patience to really untangle what the situation was

Part of the problem to me was the language around them

That it would be a short sharp shock etc

When it’s known it takes far longer to reduce cases on the other side of an increase

todayuknews.com/health/covid-is-evolving-to-become-better-at-spreading-in-the-air/

Study done with alpha not delta though.

@MarshaBradyo

Part of the problem to me was the language around them

That it would be a short sharp shock etc

When it’s known it takes far longer to reduce cases on the other side of an increase

Well I guess this is getting back to the science.

I understood that the point of a circuit-breaker was exactly to prevent a further rapid rise in cases that would then take a long time to come down? Once you already have the big rise, as you say, it takes a long time to reduce.

Might one issue with the Welsh plan have been timing?

The circuit breaker didn’t work in work in that by Christmas they had higher rates than England.

Slight arguments that we did have a circuit breaker in England too in the November lockdown so not comparing to nothing but I do feel rates were too high in wanes by Christmas to make a convincing argument it was an amazing intervention- your left with “it could have been even worse” which isn’t want you are looking for when convincing the public this is great!

I think Australia’s struggle with the delta variant also suggests that it’s really would fo very little now, three months abs nsw is still in a lockdown with high cases, reasonably stable but not reducing! It does suggest two weeks would do bugger all!

Oh and nsw first lockdown with very low cases less than a hundred so it doesn’t feel too late in U.K. terms. I think to really be short you need to be New Zealand and do it at one case and we are well past that stage with the extent of the virus we have.

Well the call for a circuit breaker came in September ( I am not sure exactly when it was in Wales, but later than that).

@Dghgcotcitc

Oh and nsw first lockdown with very low cases less than a hundred so it doesn’t feel too late in U.K. terms. I think to really be short you need to be New Zealand and do it at one case and we are well past that stage with the extent of the virus we have.

I completely agree that you need to go early for these things to work well, as per Martha's point about a sharp rise and slow fall

The FDA has just recommended Covid 19 booster vaccines for 65+ and high risk groups only. Lots of interesting data discussed in the panel meeting linked below for anyone interested.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58592338.amp

I understood that the point of a circuit-breaker was exactly to prevent a further rapid rise in cases that would then take a long time to come down? Once you already have the big rise, as you say, it takes a long time to reduce

It won’t prevent a rapid rise after it’s lifted? At best you’d see a two week delay to this rise? Why wouldn’t that be the case

But you’d also have to factor in the days it takes to start turning cases - ie look at lockdowns and see how many days that took before we saw this downturn

Plus factor in behaviour - if you lock people down what do they do when you release

Welsh lockdown began at end of October half term in England. I remember because my friend who’d moved to Wales was visiting and hotfooted it back!

@herecomesthsun where did you read about the circuit breaker?

So the FDA is still Pfizer 3rd dose to Pfizer people. Nothing for people with other vaccines. Not that they would have AZ as here anyway, and we have no Johnson (still why not?), but Moderna we do have, presumably not in the timescales yet though for a booster.

It says no results on studies for mixed dosing? But we're going ahead with it here - is that on no studies, or are there AZ/Pfizer studies and the no results yet is just for US vaccines?

I am quite confused by the idea of mixing vaccines, but choosing to give the least effective vaccine in terms of long term support as the mix.

Ronapreve treatment approved by MHRA last month; UK gov says they have bought in a lot and it can be used from Monday: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58602999.

It will be offered to those over-50 without the necessary antibodies, and those aged 12-49 who are immuno-compromised - for example those with certain cancers - who struggle to mount an antibody response, either through being exposed to Covid, or from vaccination.

The treatment antibodies - casirivimab and imdevimab - will then be administered to patients through a drip. The drug works by binding to the virus' spike protein, stopping it from being able to infect the body's cells.

The antibody therapy attacks the virus, unlike other Covid treatments such as the steroid dexamethasone that calm the body's overactive immune system.

There are studies published on AZ/Pfizer mixing but not JJ/Pfizer or Moderna/Pfizer SirFred. I believe they are also doing mixed studies with Moderna, Novavax, Valneva and Pfizer in the UK, but still ongoing including one for 2nd dose in adolescents which is just starting to enrol participants looking at half dose Pfizer, Moderna or Novavax after 1st dose Pfizer.