Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Thank you!

After today's case figures, can everyone just hold up their hands and say we don't actually know how this bloody virus operates?!

As in, as one Reddit comment says- how?

@ILookAtTheFloor

After today's case figures, can everyone just hold up their hands and say we don't actually know how this bloody virus operates?!

As in, as one Reddit comment says- how?

I just googled but can’t work out if you think good or bad number?

What are today's numbers?

26628 for the uk

Was 37489 this time last week

Oh that’s great I was getting an old figure I think

Good hopefully still on other side of summer surge - if I had to guess why

On a complete anecdata facepalm moment, I taught year 13 a boy today who was coughing coughing coughing.... he said' everyone who went to Reading has a chest infection, miss'....

I told him to book a PCR... he booked one then and there and off he went but he had no idea that if you were coughing you were supposed to SI and take a PCR. I mean... how??!

I do think that many years from now we will find something out about covid that we totally didn’t realise at the time and yes we are in the early stages of understanding of the virus in many ways. I don’t know what that “something” is but it is strange to twice had a point when cases should obviously rise and haven’t! Obviously they still may but I cannot understand why kids going back to school/ more community has etc has not caused a rise in England a week after it should have done. It is odd and suggests a factor at play we haven’t thought of!

@ILookAtTheFloor

After today's case figures, can everyone just hold up their hands and say we don't actually know how this bloody virus operates?!

As in, as one Reddit comment says- how?

It isn't a number to get excited about. Some of us have been saying since the big post Euros dip of mid July to expect a bumpy summer and early autumn. Cases wobbling between 20k and 40k are just bumps that go up or down, there isn't a huge difference as it varies so much based on superspreaders (K factor individuals and events) as well as week to week. If they drop below say 10k average that would be exciting, but unless testing is drastically cut back I don't think we can hope for that until Spring next year, it doesn't seem realistic. If they go above 50k average then we need to worry about hospitalisation rates. Bumping along at 30k-ish daily is I believe about the level Sage (for media Prof Hunter and Prof Hayward) have said to expect ongoing (similar to endemic flu).

@Dghgcotcitc

I do think that many years from now we will find something out about covid that we totally didn’t realise at the time and yes we are in the early stages of understanding of the virus in many ways. I don’t know what that “something” is but it is strange to twice had a point when cases should obviously rise and haven’t! Obviously they still may but I cannot understand why kids going back to school/ more community has etc has not caused a rise in England a week after it should have done. It is odd and suggests a factor at play we haven’t thought of!

Possibly because of things like my post above yours... but you never know!

It is odd and suggests a factor at play we haven’t thought of!

Or that the number of vaccinations, previous exposure and otherwise "immune" people means we've hit some kind of endemicity (or even herd immunity) threshold.

Cases might start rising once the weather turns and we start socialising indoors more though.

I don’t think it’s odd?

The point was to peak in summer?

I cannot understand why kids going back to school/ more community has etc has not caused a rise in England a week after it should have done
There has been a rise for child cases though! Massive, much larger than for other variants. It's happening alongside adults dropping that's why it is slightly obscured.
See the regional age heat maps; younger age cases growing but older dropping (because of vaccination). Attached London as an example, the last month.

I don't think day by day changes in numbers matter much now, as MRex says, it was expected this peak would be lower but longer and that's exactly what we are seeing.

Even with high levels of vaccination it seems unlikely case numbers would go down much, but hopefully they won't go up much more either - so far this month looks better than the worst case scenarios for sure. Still very high though considering the flu and other winter virus season hasn't begun yet.

I'm not saying it's exciting by the way.

I was just asking how.

No figures would be exciting for my by the way.

I think we should stop mass testing, personally!

@Piggywaspushed

On a complete anecdata facepalm moment, I taught year 13 a boy today who was coughing coughing coughing.... he said' everyone who went to Reading has a chest infection, miss'....

I told him to book a PCR... he booked one then and there and off he went but he had no idea that if you were coughing you were supposed to SI and take a PCR. I mean... how??!

I would say "how??", but there are posts on here every day from someone saying "she has a fever should I test / he got a negative LFT but is coughing" etc. To be fair, DN and friends all got a horrible chest infection from Reading but negative PCR for all 4, so could be something else.

The general argument was that cases will rise with an increase of indoor mixing particularly amongst the vaccinated, we have just had a huge increase in that with schools returning yet no overall bump.

But yes the decreasing adult cases counteracting increase in child cases is interesting and I helps to explain it a bit.

Too many by the ways in the above post, apologies

I thought the point was to get bulk of infection over by summer so any school hit was separate?

Why are the numbers not reflecting that?

Just wait 2 more weeks... 😉

Actually that could be read two ways

I mean that’s what we’re seeing isn’t it?

Basically I’m confused by people saying why

Because the numbers didn’t raise over the summer as much as was thought, they dropped after then grand reopening abs then have crept up again, and now again seem to be dropping with schools returning.

It’s not about specific case numbers but mapped against activity it’s odd. Originally it was thought cases increase post 19 July (possibly up to 100,000 but I do wonder if that was scaremongering) then drop, then another bump when schools go back. Instead they dropped after 19 July, kind of began drifting upwards now seem to be dropping with school return its not mapping against the changes in human activity the way that was expected (possibly overall number of cases are the same but they are at the wrong time compared to predictions)

In my area children have only been back to school for one week. Which is too early for a proper ride. Having said that they tested the whole school at school and only caught two cases which were staff and not pupils!

Bumping along at 30k-ish daily is I believe about the level Sage (for media Prof Hunter and Prof Hayward) have said to expect ongoing (similar to endemic flu)

30k a day is over 10million a year, which at 20% detection rates which ONS says covid gets is over 50 million a year, which is not flu, the estimates for flu (no-one obviously really knows as we don't test like covid) is 10-20% of population getting flu every year, which would be an average of 6k per day equivalent to the covid number (reality is of course completely different in normal times the flu comes in a wave with large peaks of infection in a few weeks)

I don't really understand why people think it's surprising cases aren't going up, we've had too many cases that unless the vaccine is worthless, there simply aren't the people to be infected in huge numbers.