Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@sirfredfredgeorge - Sorry, you're rigour, the 45k daily average cases was a coronavirus comparison rather flu comparison. inews.co.uk/opinion/future-covid-pandemic-look-you-testing-quarantine-1146092

That should say right, not *rigour!. Though you are rigourous too in checking info!

I think there were several people in this forum who hypothesised that school re-openings are unlikely to have the impact predicted by media and “Independent” Sage.

Yes, reported cases in schoolchildren went up but the increase was offset by the drop in other age groups.

The fuel to the fire of the pandemic are young adults. They drove every single wave of infection we have seen so far. The pool of susceptible population in this age group has shrunk so much that the virus is simply running of people to infect.

Staggering the July 21 “re-opening” and school return was a very smart move. Schools were not able to amplify impact of nightclubs, festivals and other mass events.

Place marking.

Poster don't like anecdotal data on this thread, I've been on a middling area Swinging low to high but not for instance intense like some of those places up north.

However... Cases are exploding all around me, loads have been to festivals and no lateral flow testing done.

Say one place had around 40 cases in 15 weeks.. There are 25 cases in one... Week.

All around me including my own dd covid is zooming in

@wintertravel1980

I think there were several people in this forum who hypothesised that school re-openings are unlikely to have the impact predicted by media and “Independent” Sage.

Yes, reported cases in schoolchildren went up but the increase was offset by the drop in other age groups.

The fuel to the fire of the pandemic are young adults. They drove every single wave of infection we have seen so far. The pool of susceptible population in this age group has shrunk so much that the virus is simply running of people to infect.

Staggering the July 21 “re-opening” and school return was a very smart move. Schools were not able to amplify impact of nightclubs, festivals and other mass events.

I always appreciate your analysis winter

@wintertravel1980

I think there were several people in this forum who hypothesised that school re-openings are unlikely to have the impact predicted by media and “Independent” Sage.

Yes, reported cases in schoolchildren went up but the increase was offset by the drop in other age groups.

The fuel to the fire of the pandemic are young adults. They drove every single wave of infection we have seen so far. The pool of susceptible population in this age group has shrunk so much that the virus is simply running of people to infect.

Staggering the July 21 “re-opening” and school return was a very smart move. Schools were not able to amplify impact of nightclubs, festivals and other mass events.

I thought so too.

Although I’m giving it a bit longer to really see, but even then a drop right now is great.

Universities are about to go back….could bring another new surge in the young adult population?

I agree there is definitely something we still don’t understand about spread.

I’m glad that the rocketing cases in schools don’t seem to be having a broader effect in other age groups.

If indeed, infection rates in young adults are responsible for driving up infections, I’ll be interested to see what happens when unis go back towards the end of September and more importantly, the mass return to the office (part time) which seems to be beginning in most companies throughout September.

How many admissions per day before we need to move to Plan B?? 2000??

There's no evidence of rocketing cases in schools in the stats? With delta and no restrictions it's very likely that an area with little existing immunity will see lots of cases - so someone hearing an anecdote will hear of it rocketing - but across the whole country, the stats do not show that happening.

To me, it's unlikely that there are enough uninfected young adults who can still drive infections, the evidence for that is the smaller peaks after the later festivals in the year, if there was a lot of immunity it would've spread there too.

As it's a data thread, if we have our opinions on what might happen, we can say "if this is true, then this is how it would reflect in the data", and it's a good test of our opinions.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017129/S1376_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf Still posting models with R getting to 2.0 and 7000 hospitalisations, I cannot see any mechanism R can get to 2 unless vaccines wane completely - there aren't enough people to be infected, and not enough unvaccinated to be hospitalised.

If they think it's a serious options, then they thing vaccines are a failure.

(maybe failure isn't a fair definition of a vaccine that works, but only for for a few months, but not sure it's really a success either?)

@Thethingswedoforlove

Universities are about to go back….could bring another new surge in the young adult population?

This is my guess for why the govt are being cautious. If that age group travels the country (in some cases) roughly at the same time and is mixing freely (almost nobody at my NW university has had a mask on indoors the last few times I've been in - a couple of staff working in the cafe had one on, but no-one else) and even double vaccination doesn't prevent someone catching a mild (hopefully) case of delta, then the rate may indeed start bumping up.

Let's hope not, but with uni starting up + wfh workers in general going back to the office, I can see why we need to take some care.

Too many parentheses and long sentences there, but I hope you get my drift!

It's all a bit hypothetical, isn't it?

Last year, cases didn't increase in schools immediately they went back - but by December they had increased 50 fold. On the one hand, delta is more infectious, but on the other hand, we do have much more of an immune response in the community now.

There are still a sizeable number of children who haven't had covid - 50% has been suggested though of course it's hard to know for sure. ONS produced data suggesting that 24% children had antibodies in July - though this is open to interpretation.

Exposure is going to vary a lot by area - in some areas, it might be that almost all the school has been exposed whereas in areas that have had more consistently low cases there might be a much larger naïve population. It's also not entirely clear how the immune response from exposure or vaccination will change over time.

However, the measures that have been announced seem very sensible so let's hope they hold the spread.

Just re a post upthread, it is worth mentioning that SPI-M and SPI-B are not Independent Sage so it was not merely the media and indie Sage who were pessimistic /overly cautious in their modelling.

I would have thought abundance of caution a better option, personally,

There are so many differences between now and last year that, as you say, its a bit hypothetical.

Different variant

Most of the population vaccinated

More people have had covid

More mixing over the preceeding months (as opposed to being thrown back into the melting pot off the back of lockdown).

What hasn't changed is hospitalisations following cases (albeit at a different ratio). Hopefully if the drop in cases continues longer term then hopefully this will start a drop in hospitalisations.

And apparently R is expected to be between 1. and 1.5 and an R of 2 is indeed seen as "Highly unlikely unless waning immunity were to play a greater role or a new variant of concern were to emerge"

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/bring-in-measures-soon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns?utm_term=200740d17d4f966fff2e08be6159fb66&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUK_email

I would have thought abundance of caution a better option, personally

Absolutely. And I think most of us do err on the side of cautious.

Unfortunately there are those who do seek out the absolute worse case scenarios and present them as fact so then some of us are put in the position of having to refute whats being said.

Thats why this thread is such a valuable resource, a range of reasoned opinions without (much) hyperbole.

It also depends on what you do with the abundance of caution models.

Scenario plan or act on it. As with all this it’s a balance between elements that bring a cost.

And on here worst case gets talked about a lot which can skew balance

And apparently R is expected to be between 1. and 1.5

Which is a strange expectation, given that R has been between 0.9 and 1.1 for some time now, and every added infection (which is ~1% a week of the population) reduces R. What's their hypothesis for the huge increase?

I've seen calculations on here giving r as around 8 or 9, and apparently delta in a vaccinated population is worse than alpha in an unvaccinated population was.

I dont pretend to be a scientist or mathematician, so I don't understand why the r is so low?

@Bizawit

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Cases increased in secondary schoolchildren by a factor of 50 from Sept - December 2020. That is from ONS data.

Cases in secondary schoolchildren tend to dip in the holidays.

We can speculate as to why that might be.