Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Also might be good if countries use it instead of double vaccination for teens and we only have one dose

Also for long covid ...unexplained symptoms might never be known to be post viral if your medical records don't show you had the virus

Which shows just how incompetent doctors are with diagnosing post viral symptoms, it should make absolutely no difference, even more so if you say "yes I had a positive lateral flow for covid."

TBH I go straight to PCR - it's more reliable and it's painful enough making a small child do one test, I see no benefit in doing it twice

Lateral Flow is not certified for use in under 11's, so you should not be using it for those anyway, we have absolutely no idea of its performance.

So when would be expect to see the return to school bump happen? I am thinking over a week since schools went back we would expect it to be about now?

We should be seeing the first transmission bump, and we should have already seen all "back to school" tests, the lack of increase is already positive and suggests the majority of the country is in a similar situation to Leicester (who've now had nearly a month of back to school) where school has limited effect - presumably due to existing immunity levels.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Also for long covid ...unexplained symptoms might never be known to be post viral if your medical records don't show you had the virus

Which shows just how incompetent doctors are with diagnosing post viral symptoms, it should make absolutely no difference, even more so if you say "yes I had a positive lateral flow for covid."

TBH I go straight to PCR - it's more reliable and it's painful enough making a small child do one test, I see no benefit in doing it twice

Lateral Flow is not certified for use in under 11's, so you should not be using it for those anyway, we have absolutely no idea of its performance.

So when would be expect to see the return to school bump happen? I am thinking over a week since schools went back we would expect it to be about now?

We should be seeing the first transmission bump, and we should have already seen all "back to school" tests, the lack of increase is already positive and suggests the majority of the country is in a similar situation to Leicester (who've now had nearly a month of back to school) where school has limited effect - presumably due to existing immunity levels.

Huh. I genuinely didn't know that about Lateral Flows - I'm sure our primary were giving them out at one point. All tested now though in any case.

but I suspect it should be even higher

How does your hypothesis fit with positivity rates declining, if there's loads of covid around, but not enough tests for everyone, then positivity would be climbing, but it's declining.

LFT instructions say that adult should test under 12s, which rather implies they’re allowed?

But piggy surely your medical records will show you tested positive (on LFT) as long as you register the result?

I'm sure our primary were giving them out at one point

lots of primary schools were distributing them, the intention was that parents use them.

Of course it's likely they are reasonably effective, but there's certainly some reason to think they're going to be less effective than in larger people (as load is smaller in a smaller body) but we have no real idea either way, they certainly pick up some people!

@sirfredfredgeorge

but I suspect it should be even higher

How does your hypothesis fit with positivity rates declining, if there's loads of covid around, but not enough tests for everyone, then positivity would be climbing, but it's declining.

Because it's back to school week. There's lots of EVERYTHING around. I suspect my small one for example just has back to school crud; same as we got last year, same as we get lots of other years.

If school gets back and back to school crud kicks up 80% and covid kicks up 50% and testing kicks up 50% then more of the tests are going to pick up crud than covid. The one increasing doesn't mean the other isn't also on the way up.

LFT instructions say that adult should test under 12s, which rather implies they’re allowed?

The instructions also say not to use on under 11's, so it's right for a small window.

Not sure jan but I think.Lots of people don't register LFTs either way whereas PCRs always are.

www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2021/september/primary-school-infection.html?fbclid=IwAR0kM8QUG1cgPMDBCYS1BcszElyZfOxSM195yl05ktUyIseKDnfRG6mLWrM

(Link to paper at bottom)

New model predicts more outbreaks (but this summary says 1% of schools will experience them, which is surely lower than 2020?)

Testing and other measures more effective than bubble quarantining.

Schools could become reservoirs of infection for Delta

Definition of outbreak has changed, though.

@sirfredfredgeorge before there was any RL data on the effect of vaccines antibody studies were the best guide we had. They have been a pretty good guide. So if I ever get offered a booster jab I'll take it.

Ah of course piggy, yes.

Have read bits of the paper and it looks really interesting. Not that I understand the Maths!

What is a Turkey fence, for starters?

@Dghgcotcitc

Hard to say as it was mixed with the other things cases began rising in Scotland for about 14 august but I think that cannot have been the school bump as other stuff opened too…they have been raising in Scotland ever since!

Scotland is down now too.

Looks like they peaked 11 days ago on the 2nd September. That’s around 2-3 weeks after schools opened I think..?

*Because it's back to school week. There's lots of EVERYTHING around. I suspect my small one for example just has back to school crud; same as we got last year, same as we get lots of other years.

If school gets back and back to school crud kicks up 80% and covid kicks up 50% and testing kicks up 50% then more of the tests are going to pick up crud than covid. The one increasing doesn't mean the other isn't also on the way up*

Zoe has been falling pretty rapidly now for a couple of weeks, which also doesn’t fit with this hypothesis.

Zoe has been falling pretty rapidly now for a couple of weeks, which also doesn’t fit with this hypothesis

And the other thing that would show is a large increase in LFT positives, and it diverging from the ratio of LFT to PCR, and I can't see any change there.

Although there's a possible wrinkle to that if there was a new variant that also increased the symptomatic / asymptomatic ratio or lessened the time to onset of symptoms (as that would reduce the number of LFT's as you're not supposed to use with symptoms) I don't think there's any evidence of that though.

Lateral Flow is not certified for use in under 11's, so you should not be using it for those anyway, we have absolutely no idea of its performance.

We surely have "some idea". LFT presumably tests for the presence of the Covid-19 virus, so unless there's some a radically different anatomically in an 10 year old to a 11 (and the virus is mysteriously only becomes present in the respiratory tract on someone's 11th birthday) which would be ridiculous, it's reasonable to assume LFTs are pretty accurate in under 11s if properly administered, especially primary age children. It's just that the product likely hasn't been fully tested in children below 11.

it's reasonable to assume LFTs are pretty accurate in under 11s if properly administered, especially primary age children

The evidence is that they're not pretty accurate in over 11s, so I think it would be unlikely that they'd suddenly be better in primary aged children, and I think it's more likely they are not properly administered due to lower compliance by children and parents being more keen to placate the child.

But it's not my advice that they're not to be used in primary aged children, it's the governments. I would be interested in the data on test positivity etc. of people who were testing them though - not sure why it's never published.

@sirfredfredgeorge

it's reasonable to assume LFTs are pretty accurate in under 11s if properly administered, especially primary age children

The evidence is that they're not pretty accurate in over 11s, so I think it would be unlikely that they'd suddenly be better in primary aged children, and I think it's more likely they are not properly administered due to lower compliance by children and parents being more keen to placate the child.

But it's not my advice that they're not to be used in primary aged children, it's the governments. I would be interested in the data on test positivity etc. of people who were testing them though - not sure why it's never published.

From what I've read LFTs are 90-95% accurate, though this presumes they are carried out properly... Given how unpleasant they are to do, I imagine may teens don't get a decent swab to test with, reducing the efficacy considerably.

Do you have a source for that claim @Warhertisuff? I thought the absolute best claim LFTs had to measured accuracy was about 70% in one trial.

@JanglyBeads

Do you have a source for that claim *@Warhertisuff*? I thought the absolute best claim LFTs had to measured accuracy was about 70% in one trial.

Here are my sources:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lateral-flow-covid-tests-symptoms-b1883817.html%3famp

www.medicaldevice-network.com/features/asymptomatic-lateral-flow-testing/

However, in finding those links just now I did spot the source I think you are referring to:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/25/covid-19-how-accurate-are-lateral-flow-tests

LFTs clearly aren't failsafe, but picking up 70%-90% of cases (depending on the study) is better than picking up 0%.... My point is that they don't suddenly go from being a useful tool in over 11s with a 70% efficacy to completely useless in under 11a with no efficacy at all.

I think one of the problems with the image
of LFTs is that we approach or from an individualistic perspective, and can be minded to write them off because they don't give high level of individual assurance as to whether you have a Covid infection.

Anyone know why it's only Pfizer being used for the booster ? And implications for those of us who had AZ originally?

A doctor said on Radio 4 just now that Pfizer is more effective. That's why it's being used as a booster. Seems fine to have if you've had AZ before.

@midgemagneto

Anyone know why it's only Pfizer being used for the booster ? And implications for those of us who had AZ originally?

Mixing vaccine appears to give more potent results! That could be one very good reason for using Pfizer on a population that was mainly vaccines with AZ.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3