Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I think the booster need is primarily because certain people, for whatever range of age/ condition reasons, haven't developed sufficient immunity, rather than because immunity is waning. Opinion, based only on that clinically vulnerable research paper and those involved with vaccines stressing that protection continues.

Keeping fingers crossed that this downward trend continues!

I’m can’t quite believe it currently and expect next week’s figures to be higher? Maybe?

I'm not convinced there is waning immunity btw, I don't see much evidence, just evidence for poor immunity all round in the vaccination and it's only recently that there are few enough restrictions that people are likely to be infected.

I'm very worried about it but not completely convinced either. Considering that masses of the most vulnerable people were vaccinated in December, I'd have expected to see more deaths now if the vaccine protection against death dropped significantly after six months. Maybe it will be different in a couple of months. I hope not.

Hospitalisations still seem kind of high though. They're a lot lower than in previous waves, but if the protection against illness is very strong, wouldn't we expect them to go down a bit as more people are vaccinated, even with cases rising?

I think the booster need is primarily because certain people, for whatever range of age/ condition reasons, haven't developed sufficient immunity, rather than because immunity is waning

So the question comes, has this group developed good immunity to alpha via the vaccine, but very poor to delta ('cos the response antibodies have little cross over) in which case the booster will likely achieve absolutely nothing against delta, or was there little or no response at all - however if it's little or no response then I'm not sure why we'd expect a 3rd dose to do more?

But there has been a study showing that a booster dose does increase antibodies - and considerably. So it would make sense to offer a third dose to those age groups where two doses are not preventing hospitalisation sufficiently, definitely over 80, probably over 70 and maybe younger age groups. I agree evidence of waning immunity is not conclusive.

The interesting twitter modelling thread suggests that mask wearing and continued working from home would make a big difference. Most of us have been talking about measures or mitigations, not lockdowns, when discussing the data.

The other elephant in the room is the risk that the flu jab will be less effective this year - but masks and working from home also impact on flu to some extent. The NHS really needs there not to be a flu epidemic this year so that waiting lists dont increase to the 15 million considered possible, normal winter pressures seem to be overlooked in the modelling.

All young people have certainly not already been infected with covid - . an attack rate of, was it 76% in the twitter thread, still leaves quite a number to be infected. Hopefully the rest have some protection from vaccination but saying they are "as safe as houses" is an assumption not supported by the data.

A friend's teenage grandchildren were infected recently, shortly after one returned to school. Both seem to be doing well but they probably have had a single vaccine each, an anecdote to confirm the fallacy.

@everythingthelighttouches

And again today! 29,173 New cases reported and 56 deaths. I hardly dare believe, don’t understand it, but this looks great!

Wonderful!

@Bordois

"A dangerous and unethical experiment" wasn't it?

The "irreversible" "Freedom Day" ? Rubs chin. I could tell you what I think about that, but I wouldn't want to cause upset by digressing from the numbers .

As for today's numbers, wonderful!

Why do you always have to snark at people?

@ElleTheShowaddyWaddyBody

Keeping fingers crossed that this downward trend continues!

I’m can’t quite believe it currently and expect next week’s figures to be higher? Maybe?

I wouldn't be surprised if they are up and down within the same range over the next few weeks. As we get closer to endemicity (is that a word? the range will narrow, imo.

I'm not snarking. We could discuss further but not here

"The modellers suggest..."

Well, the modellers haven't had a great track record have they?

Most have been a load of old bollocks.

Clearly there is a lot we don't know about who it spreads too- note I said who, not how.

Data query:

Are the ratios of

• 'positive tests : hospitalisations c 1-2 weeks later' and
• 'positive tests: deaths c 4 weeks later'

remaining relatively constant at the moment, or are there any signs of change?

The reason behind my question is that hospitalisations and deaths are less susceptible to 'changes made by choice', whereas I am aware that testing may vary depending on whether people bother to test; the mix between LFTs and PCRs; the practical consequences of testing in terms of isolation etc.

As hospitalisations and deaths are lagging indicators, I wonder whether the (relatively) static case rates in terms of positive tests are masking a faster growth in those lagging indicators, or whether the 3 are moving 'in step' - with a lag - as we would expect.

But there has been a study showing that a booster dose does increase antibodies - and considerably

The antibody tests aren't very good though are they? That's always one of the problems, antibody levels are not just dependent on if you'd mount a successful protection against infection, they're only detectable in the test if you have sufficient of them at that moment to mount a defence - and that depends also on if you've seen much of the virus to be reminded that you need to.

Hence someone who had a positive vaccine protection (and maybe just to alpha) would still show a big rise in antibodies after a booster, regardless of if it was a consequential increase.

I have no idea either way, but I just don't see data that "antibodies go up" means that the booster is guaranteed helpful. I know we have the AZ people saying booster not necessary, but Pfizer saying it probably does wane and should have a booster (doesn't help with the conspiracy nuts that the non-profit has different advice to the for profit one)

"A dangerous and unethical experiment" wasn't it?

As well as a threat to the whole world...

CMOs say one jab for 12-15yo. It's a good compromise position I think.

and it gives them 2 or3 months to think about whether they would consider a second dose, while data comes in from the US, Israel and Europe.

Meanwhile, the kids get quite a lot of protection from the single dose.

Sounds sensible, doesn't it?

16 (and 17) yr old is one dose too isn’t it?

Just wondering if D’s is meant to have another

I’m glad a decision has been made

Given my main reason for wanting vaccination for teenagers is to make travel easier it’s a bit of a pain to do one dose when everywhere else is two! Given the cmo is saying this isn’t a health issue or really about health benefits it seems these sort of arguements are actually relevant!

Have name changed and this probably isn't the right thread but lots of informed people on here. My dickhead ex has been adamant all along that our nearly 14 year old will not be having the jab. She wants it. She has pretty bad asthma too. I want her to have it. I'm going to have one more go at negotiating (always painful) but I've just seen that Javid has said that children can have the final word if they are deemed mature enough by speaking to the vaccination team. She's definitely seen as mature and sensible by her teachers. Is that really possible anyone know or is it a court issue

AFAIK if you have parental responsibility and both you and her say she wants it then there's nothing your ex can do about it.

Don't think he even has to know about it

It sounds as though your DD is competent to make the decision herself. However, if there is parental conflict about consent, that might be difficult for a school to negotiate, and it might need to be another arrangement for the vaccination.

@tiddlysquat

Have name changed and this probably isn't the right thread but lots of informed people on here. My dickhead ex has been adamant all along that our nearly 14 year old will not be having the jab. She wants it. She has pretty bad asthma too. I want her to have it. I'm going to have one more go at negotiating (always painful) but I've just seen that Javid has said that children can have the final word if they are deemed mature enough by speaking to the vaccination team. She's definitely seen as mature and sensible by her teachers. Is that really possible anyone know or is it a court issue

Advise your daughter not to tell him. If he asks she can say she's thinking about it, which would be true because him mentioning it will make her think. No need to inform him further than that, she's old enough to decide for herself.

With asthma they are i think.at increased risk.of long covid.
But also.asthmatics can end up in hospital with their asthma. And you can get covid with other viruses. Plus more likely to cough with viruses. So more likely to spread tuings and have to have time off foe pcr testing.

Im so glad it's been approved! I notice the DM showing icu cases vs myocarditis. - no.mention of hospitalisation which cant be pleasant for a child plus most parents have 2 dc so have to manage that around the other dc.
And obviously no.mention of LC

...& Whitty is giving a press conference at 4pm