Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The main point of my post was not to discuss the M word, it was to discuss vaccine efficacy and strategies around that.

(Actually the vaccines are amazing - I've just been reading that report and wow
"...the vaccination programme has prevented between 24.4 and 24.9 million infections and between 108,600 and 116,200" deaths.

Amazing, though not perfect, but I digress)

I was really surprised that what I wrote was seen as "triggering" as it was meant as impersonal discussion.

So I'll bear in mind in future that even medical data interpretation & discussion can be emotive about these things, if that helps?

I wasn't intending to cause upset.

I wasn't intending to cause upset

Thanks - I appreciate that.

On another note- I’m really interested that data from the last couple of days indicates that the infections curve might be flattening again. Curious to see what the next couple of weeks bring. Hoping the warm weather holds out for a bit longer 🤞🏻🤞🏻

The data we have suggests that without some additional measure there are likely to be more cases in winter. That is analysis of the data. To suggest that therefore additional measures may be necessary is simply logic. The discussion about which type of measures might be most effective is again a data discussion - not politics. Those who cannot cope with such discussions need to look elsewhere. www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4271777-Good-News-14-Keeping-our-spirits-up-just-a-bit-longer?pg=33

[quote alreadytaken]The data we have suggests that without some additional measure there are likely to be more cases in winter. That is analysis of the data. To suggest that therefore additional measures may be necessary is simply logic. The discussion about which type of measures might be most effective is again a data discussion - not politics. Those who cannot cope with such discussions need to look elsewhere. www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4271777-Good-News-14-Keeping-our-spirits-up-just-a-bit-longer?pg=33[/quote]
Let’s agree to respectfully disagree. And , thank you, but I am not looking for a “lifting spirits” thread, I am looking to be informed of the data / facts. As
Mentioned, I shall continue to use this thread for that purpose, enjoying the presentation of statistical data and scientific analysis / commentary.

I agree with @Bizawit, this thread is for facts and I feel there is too much negative talk about restrictions being needed this winter. We may need restrictions, we may not, but for many people the idea of their businesses having to close again is not something to discuss in an offhand way.

The data we have suggests that without some additional measure there are likely to be more cases in winter.

I disagree. The data suggests that we are approaching endemic equilibrium. Even a few months ago super spreading events like Boardmasters or Aug Bank holiday weekend festivals would have triggered waves of infection across the country. Right now... nothing happens. Cases spike temporarily and go back down.

The two biggest risks I see are (i) waning immunity (hence the need for boosters) and (ii) new variants with higher degree of immune escape. However it is only my thoughts, not interpretation of data. Data actually looks pretty good.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Locally our two main hospitals Frimley and Royal Surrey are loosely designated as covid and non-covid. Confirmed Covid go to Frimley. The only inpatients in Royal Surrey as those who are admitted and may then go on to test positive for Covid. This keeps the Royal Surrey mainly open for A&E and elective. I thought most health authorities were now doing that?

In the same way heart patients always go to Frimley, and Royal Surrey in a cancer centre. They split specialities and admissions.

I didn't know that. That would explain why my parents have had their usual appointments (including haemotology) at the RS.

And, of course, there is a never ending debate about schools but Florida's example supports the hypothesis that once young adults are all vaccinated/infected, schoolchildren on their own cannot drive the pandemic. Florida's cases seem to have peaked during the week schools went back.

Over 1000 ventilation beds currently in use and still increasing. Schools going back with less mitigation than previously. Universities following them soon. Suggestions that immunity is waning. Doubts about the effectiveness of the flu vaccine due to lack of data. This is not a good news thread, it is a data thread. Massive waiting lists do not fall in winter with many of your ventialtion beds occupied by covid patients.

There are restrictions short of "businesses closing again", starting with going back to mask wearing. There are possibilities for booster campaigns, for vaccination of children. Vaccine passports for mass events are needed - yet businesses are resisting them.

@Bizawit

You’re being a bit unpleasant for no apparent reason

Ok. I don’t want to derail the thread or get into a bun fight , as I come on this thread to get helpful information about empirical data / facts. It’s a really useful resource for me in terms of informing myself on the stats. And I’d like to continue to use it for that purpose.

The reason I made the comment is not to be unpleasant for no reason, but rather because I find it personally triggering to be constantly confronted by people calling for further covid restrictions and assuming their opinions on this are factually correct rather than personal opinions. given that there are so many threads about this topic and a diversity of views (on here as elsewhere) I was hoping that might be viewed as a debate for another space. But perhaps I’m the only one who feels that way, in which case I will keep quiet and go back to reading the graphs, enjoying the scientific commentary on the data.

There are no thread police, the only way to keep this data focused is to ignore anything that deviates from the data.

cos the bare stats look very bad for vaccinations in 40-80 year olds where you're simplistically more likely to catch the virus if vaccinated

So I've been thinking more on why this could be - and also explain why the UK sees more cases than most countries - the massive testing, the people who are vaccinated in those age groups are so much more likely to test, so it's massively picking up very mild cases. The UK level of testing is so much higher than elsewhere, I believe germany still requires a doctor consultation before a PCR test?

ie the vaccinated cases are just getting picked up so much, but so many of them are mild that less "worried" people who don't vaccinate, or don't test regularly or for unusual symptoms aren't picked up.

So this hypothesis fits the data, and fits the data on case volumes in different countries, and it's a lot cheerier than "the vaccine is rubbish" hypothesis which also fits the data. Couldn't think of any others though.

Surely there’s no point in discussing the data at all if we don’t relate it to real human beings and impacts on their lives?

If anyone heard this week’s R4 Life Scientific, the statistician Hannah Fry stated that one must always remember that each person is not merely a number.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000zdq1

@Regulus you are right. Will do.

@sirfredfredgeorge

cos the bare stats look very bad for vaccinations in 40-80 year olds where you're simplistically more likely to catch the virus if vaccinated

So I've been thinking more on why this could be - and also explain why the UK sees more cases than most countries - the massive testing, the people who are vaccinated in those age groups are so much more likely to test, so it's massively picking up very mild cases. The UK level of testing is so much higher than elsewhere, I believe germany still requires a doctor consultation before a PCR test?

ie the vaccinated cases are just getting picked up so much, but so many of them are mild that less "worried" people who don't vaccinate, or don't test regularly or for unusual symptoms aren't picked up.

So this hypothesis fits the data, and fits the data on case volumes in different countries, and it's a lot cheerier than "the vaccine is rubbish" hypothesis which also fits the data. Couldn't think of any others though.

Could it also be that many of these tests are picking up bits of RNA where there is no live infection?

Boosters and vaccines for 12-15s are not restrictions.

There is sufficient immunity in the 16-24 group which makes university spread much less of an issue than it was last year. It also reduces "the business case" for vaccine passports in nightclubs and at mass events for younger people:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1433909790296743939

Schools - let us see what next few weeks bring but based on experience of other countries, schools on their own are unable to trigger uncontrollable transmission.

Waning is a big risk hence I keep going back to boosters.

I completely agree re boosters and vaccines for 12-15s.

I also still think it is a huge boon going into the winter with a vaccinated population! compared to last year. How marvellous that is.

Unvaccinated people may be more careful, but also, aren't people whose lives make them more likely to be exposed more likely to have been vaccinated because of that?

Data is both quantitative and qualitative. Although society /funding at the moment favours quantitative research, we simply cannot lose sight of the people and the issues. The JCVI, SAGE etc debate values, ethics , opinions.

@alreadytaken

Over 1000 ventilation beds currently in use and still increasing. Schools going back with less mitigation than previously. Universities following them soon. Suggestions that immunity is waning. Doubts about the effectiveness of the flu vaccine due to lack of data. This is not a good news thread, it is a data thread. Massive waiting lists do not fall in winter with many of your ventialtion beds occupied by covid patients.

There are restrictions short of "businesses closing again", starting with going back to mask wearing. There are possibilities for booster campaigns, for vaccination of children. Vaccine passports for mass events are needed - yet businesses are resisting them.

That was my point, we have lots of tools in our bag, locking down is very extreme and shouldn’t be discussed as inevitable. Not saying it won’t be necessary but I have everything crossed it isn’t.

Data (by definition) is raw facts and figures, context free. Data once processed becomes information, which is what we’re dealing with here. The two terms are habitually conflated, but it’s worth pointing out because once data has been collected, processed, become information and is disseminated in any form it carries with it any bias in collection (whether deliberate or accidental) and display (depending on the medium, format and/or decisions made as to how to deal with outliers and anomalies). The sources chosen by people on this series of threads are as good as you can get, but unlikely to be perfect - and the whole point of having such information is to facilitate decision making, so it’s unreasonable not to incorporate discussion of what it means and the consequences of such decisions.

That's a definition of quantitative data though born

While I’m posting - recent discussion has spoken of the opening of schools as similar to events such as festivals, eg “schools have been open for x weeks and we haven’t seen a spike yet”. But this doesn’t reflect the dynamics of infection in schools, which don’t work like festivals, sporting competitions or other superspreader events. After the last two school openings we saw a prolonged flattish trajectory which after six to eight weeks steepened considerably and really took off. This is exactly what you’d expect. Schools, with a largely local population who are already mixing in a number of (generally fairly limited) settings, start off reflecting infection levels within the area. This continues for a time until infection takes hold in a class, a friendship group, a bubble, groups of staff who have no choice but to work closely together. Then the amplification effect appears as infection is taken home to the families of students and staff, and back into school and into other schools. Large numbers of students and staff test positive or fall ill. It’s exactly what was reported in Autumn last year and Summer this year, and it’s exactly what we should expect this year with unvaccinated children and the removal of mitigations in schools, perhaps over a shorter timescale than previously, given high baseline infection levels.

I think it applies to qualitative data too, Piggy, Good, Satisfactory, Poor are qualitative terms but unless I know what you’re asking about - speed of customer service, the quality of a purchase - they have no meaning.

Yes, but it doesn't necessarily have those numbers to crunch : it includes feeeeelings!

And usually draw narrative conclusions rather than graphs. I like my qualitative data, as you can tell!