Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Would there be needed separate isolation wards for covid, for flu and for covid + flu? "
Definitely, research earlier this year highlighted that Influenza A with covid led to significantly worse outcomes than either alone. I don't recall if it was lack of data for Influenza B or if that wasn't so bad. I'm not sure of the norovirus impact, but it's unlikely to be helpful. Unlike rhinovirus, which I think was credited with reducing spread in schools lastnd September by out-competing covid (will we summon up the strength to be grateful for streaming noses this year?).

And if so, what a headache that would be.
Yes, I'm sure. Individual rooms with good monitoring equipment are great where those exist, but many hospitals aren't well suited for very effective isolations. Especially in ICU, where normally they might separate flu or norovirus from other patients, now there's a fourth in the mix. I've no idea how hospital staff are doing it, it's quite incredible.

Thanks mrex.

What I'm trying to figure out is how much impact covid admissions are having - is there any "offset" with people not being admitted for other things.

You can see some of the changes here, as well as previous year comparison (I found the updated PowerBI link, it's still there): app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOTNjNTRhZDQtOTFhNy00MTNmLWIxODgtNTZiNWQ5YWViYTc4IiwidCI6IjUwZjYwNzFmLWJiZmUtNDAxYS04ODAzLTY3Mzc0OGU2MjllMiIsImMiOjh9.
Does that help?

I can see the theoretical need for separating patients, but I am wondering how that would practically work. Having covid and non covid areas was such a stretch. Is anyone aware of this sort of plan in ICU?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016312/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_36.pdf

New PHE report now has cases and deaths bv vax and non vax, by age, with ratios per 100,000 as well as absolute numbers.

Clearly shows how, whilst in absolute numbers, over half of deaths are in in the vaxxed groups (because of the huge numbers of vaxxed people) but when looked at per 100,000 there is a significant difference between vaxxed and unvaxxed. (in both deaths and in hospitalisations.)

Locally our two main hospitals Frimley and Royal Surrey are loosely designated as covid and non-covid. Confirmed Covid go to Frimley. The only inpatients in Royal Surrey as those who are admitted and may then go on to test positive for Covid. This keeps the Royal Surrey mainly open for A&E and elective. I thought most health authorities were now doing that?

In the same way heart patients always go to Frimley, and Royal Surrey in a cancer centre. They split specialities and admissions.

Clearly shows how, whilst in absolute numbers, over half of deaths are in in the vaxxed groups (because of the huge numbers of vaxxed people) but when looked at per 100,000 there is a significant difference between vaxxed and unvaxxed

But the smallest difference in the oldest cohort?

Is this because of vaccine protection waning given they were vaccinated earlier, or because their general increased frailty, or because of a different risk profile (more likely to be in hospital / under care whereby the end up with more close contact / higher load type situation?)

sirfredfredgeorge I suspect it is because they mount a weaker immune response to the vaccine.

However if there is waning, we should see this over time, especially as we’re all going to get infected between now and Christmas, there will be plenty of data to work with.

On that not about catching it, did you see the data on cases? Very interesting. Unfortunately it is an antivaxxer’s paradise so I think should always be presented alongside the death rates( as I will do now)

@sirfredfredgeorge

Clearly shows how, whilst in absolute numbers, over half of deaths are in in the vaxxed groups (because of the huge numbers of vaxxed people) but when looked at per 100,000 there is a significant difference between vaxxed and unvaxxed

But the smallest difference in the oldest cohort?

Is this because of vaccine protection waning given they were vaccinated earlier, or because their general increased frailty, or because of a different risk profile (more likely to be in hospital / under care whereby the end up with more close contact / higher load type situation?)

I would imagine it's a mix of all - those tables include both having covid on the death cert and those who died within 28 days of a positive test, not just those who are deemed have died of Covid, so will cover those who died of something else but had tested positive recently too.

@everythingthelighttouches And hospitalisations too - the data clearly also shows significant impact of vaccines there too.

significant impact of vaccines there too

I'm not sure the numbers are that good though, 2.6 more likely to be hospitalised if unvaccinated is not a great outcome is it? That's 62% effective at protecting hospitalisation in over 80's ? [*]

I guess there's confounding in that there could be many in both groups which are deaths coincidental with covid and the prevalence is high enough that the vaccine efficacy could be higher, but 62% protection from hospitalisation isn't great, that's lower than the numbers quoted for symptoms isn't it?

Even in the 50-59 year olds it's only 78% protective against hospitalisation, and we'd've hoped they would've had a significant vaccine response.

I wish we knew how many were with covid, as if that isn't contributing to what looks like lower effectiveness, I don't have a whole lot of faith in the vaccine right now.

[*] unvac-vac/unvac ie (150.4/100000 - 56.4/100000) / (150.4/100000)

Prob dumb question but why are the deaths quite high at the moment? Usually high on a Tuesday as catch up from sun/mon, but yesterday and today are high too?

And now looking further at @everythingthelighttouches picture, certainly an anti-vaxxers paradise, that is stunning, would really like to see some explanation.

I think the most "non-anti-vax" one is that the unvaccinated all caught it before week 32?

Well, I don't think the "with covid" and "from covid" distinction is very robust. Often it isn't very clear exactly why someone has deteriorated.

There could be a lot of evidence for underlying pathology - even someone coming in with the proverbial broken leg- but even so it is possible that covid is the cause of decline and death.

My experience was that these things are not at all clear to untangle.

As regards the hospitalisation and death figures being less good than we might have hoped for the vaccinated patients, that's also a long standing concern. It's great that we have the vaccines, but we need other mitigation measures in place alongside them to drive down the infection figures, and also, hopefully, better medical treatments will become available and improve outcomes further.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Locally our two main hospitals Frimley and Royal Surrey are loosely designated as covid and non-covid. Confirmed Covid go to Frimley. The only inpatients in Royal Surrey as those who are admitted and may then go on to test positive for Covid. This keeps the Royal Surrey mainly open for A&E and elective. I thought most health authorities were now doing that?

In the same way heart patients always go to Frimley, and Royal Surrey in a cancer centre. They split specialities and admissions.

Yes, hospitals have been splitting covid and non covid patients.

However (assuming you were referring to the question about flu and covid) , I was wondering if anyone knows the practicalities of how infection will be managed for the winter.

As MRex said, we know that there is greater mortality if someone has both flu and covid.

So patients with flu, by this logic, would need to be kept away from patients with covid, and patients with both, by this logic, would also need to be cared for separately.

That's without considering what would happen if norovirus, say, became an issue.

Patients can, of course, be managed in side rooms but there area limited number of those.

I am quietly wondering whether voluntary use of mitigation measures that would protect from both flu and covid would be helpful over this winter as driving the numbers all the way down would really help.

I'm now completely appalled with that vaccine report, it quotes vaccine effectiveness numbers from ages ago that are completely not supported by any of the data they quote below, deeply misleading, some discussion on why the data in that very report doesn't match the conclusions should be there.

Designed to mislead presumably ('cos the bare stats look very bad for vaccinations in 40-80 year olds where you're simplistically more likely to catch the virus if vaccinated)

It's great that we have the vaccines, but we need other mitigation measures in place alongside them to drive down the infection figures

🙄 This is a data thread- it’s about presenting and analysing the data - is it really necessary to bring this kind of thing here? There are so many other threads debating the politics.

@Bizawit

It's great that we have the vaccines, but we need other mitigation measures in place alongside them to drive down the infection figures

🙄 This is a data thread- it’s about presenting and analysing the data - is it really necessary to bring this kind of thing here? There are so many other threads debating the politics.

Well, if the % efficacy of the vaccines is not as high as we would have hoped then other measures would be helpful, you know if we want to reduce hospitalisations and deaths, which is what we were discussing.

Also, medical treatments, if improved, would cause an improvement in outcomes.

As a medical doctor, I don't see any incongruity in mentioning these ideas in the same sentence (and I haven't even mentioned any mitigations specifically) so I think you are being a bit trigger happy there.

Well, if the % efficacy of the vaccines is not as high as we would have hoped then other measures would be helpful, you know if we want to reduce hospitalisations and deaths, which is what we were discussing

I think people were discussing how to interpret the data in terms of what it meant for vaccine effectiveness. I don’t think you needed to bring your personal views into it.

The data makes us all come to different conclusions and its hard not to give an opinion.

I think the above was an unfair comment. The suggestion that extra restrictions may be necessary is not unreasonable given the current situation and the uncertainty about long term immunity from vaccines.

People may not want these extra restrictions but I am pretty sure they are a very regular topic of discussion with Sage / govt.

We need to be able to read the data and spot when things are changing.

I hope we can get through the winter without any extra restrictions but I think we are on a knife edge. I think we all knew this winter would be tough. Delta has made it even tougher.

Thanks, I was trying to discuss vaccine efficacy and its implications rather than the M word in detail.

The optimistic medical note is to hope for new treatments (which could really turn this situation around for those of us who have access to them), hopefully inexpensive ones (which could be accessed by more people).

@Bizawit

Well, if the % efficacy of the vaccines is not as high as we would have hoped then other measures would be helpful, you know if we want to reduce hospitalisations and deaths, which is what we were discussing

I think people were discussing how to interpret the data in terms of what it meant for vaccine effectiveness. I don’t think you needed to bring your personal views into it.

You’re being a bit unpleasant for no apparent reason?

@herecomesthsun

Thanks, I was trying to discuss vaccine efficacy and its implications rather than the M word in detail.

The optimistic medical note is to hope for new treatments (which could really turn this situation around for those of us who have access to them), hopefully inexpensive ones (which could be accessed by more people).

I enjoy your posts and find them helpful, thank you :)

I hope we can get through the winter without any extra restrictions but I think we are on a knife edge.

I think at this point boosters for vulnerable groups may be a more effective response than restrictions. The early data from Israel suggests boosters do make a difference.

Let us see what JCVI comes up with.

You’re being a bit unpleasant for no apparent reason

Ok. I don’t want to derail the thread or get into a bun fight , as I come on this thread to get helpful information about empirical data / facts. It’s a really useful resource for me in terms of informing myself on the stats. And I’d like to continue to use it for that purpose.

The reason I made the comment is not to be unpleasant for no reason, but rather because I find it personally triggering to be constantly confronted by people calling for further covid restrictions and assuming their opinions on this are factually correct rather than personal opinions. given that there are so many threads about this topic and a diversity of views (on here as elsewhere) I was hoping that might be viewed as a debate for another space. But perhaps I’m the only one who feels that way, in which case I will keep quiet and go back to reading the graphs, enjoying the scientific commentary on the data.