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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 30/08/2021 16:05

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
163
notgotthejob · 06/09/2021 17:40

@wintertravel1980 that's really promising.

I didn't know that about schools in Leicester - does anyone know their term dates are different?

notgotthejob · 06/09/2021 17:40

Know why *

Bordois · 06/09/2021 17:58

@Wakeupin2022

For information, Scotland still has s mask mandate and I believe secondary pups are still wearing masks in school........
From a data analysis point of view Scotland have really messed up by releasing some of their restrictions at the same time their schools went back 😫🤣
Dghgcotcitc · 06/09/2021 18:05

Leicester school usual go back a bit earlier (closer to Scotland) than other areas..traditionally I don’t know about this year!

Piggywaspushed · 06/09/2021 18:09

Staggered starts in Leicester though?

wintertravel1980 · 06/09/2021 18:10

Re: Leicester schools - this year it was August 25:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-58324802

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
QueenStromba · 06/09/2021 18:20

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@notgotthejob
or maybe they will. If there's a new variant that evades vacc protection then we can start this whole rollercoaster from the total beginning. Hence the point of limiting potential spread by using a combination of measures that work.
This is exactly the type of event that I would classify to "better be safe than sorry". But as I said: it seems that i am in the very minority with this view.
Most people are fine with letting it rip and let's see what happens. Because it is only dangerous to the elderly (and they are vaxxed) and it poses zero danger to kids, as they can't catch it. Why would they bother with actual facts?[/quote]
I'm with you. I think everyone's decided based on no evidence that covid's just going to turn into another common cold virus. Covid has many features that make that incredibly unlikely. The most important of these is the lack of selection pressure for it to become less deadly since the most infectious period is several days before it makes you very ill.

Secondly, the spike protein of SARS-COV2 contains a region that is highly similar to the bacterial superantigen staphylococcal enterotoxin B. This has been shown to bind with high affinity to t cell receptors and induce a hyperinflammatory response. This motif is not found in the common cold Corona viruses but MERS contains something similar.

www.pnas.org/content/117/41/25254

Thirdly, most of the common cold Corona viruses gain entry to the cell by binding to 9-O-acetylated sialic acids. NL63 is the only one that uses the same receptor as SARS-COV2, ACE2. NL63 has a weak affinity for the receptor whereas SARS-COV2 has a very strong affinity. This strong affinity is responsible for some of its pathogenesis since ACE2 is found on a wide range of human cells and is involved important regulatory pathways within the body.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/prot.26024
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32418199/

I could go on all day about this but TL;DR: SARS-COV2 is not, and never will be just a cold

boys3 · 06/09/2021 18:29

today's England spec data graphic.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
wintertravel1980 · 06/09/2021 18:29

The most important of these is the lack of selection pressure for it to become less deadly since the most infectious period is several days before it makes you very ill.

I think the hypothesis regarding transition to endemicity has never been made on the assumption Covid would become less deadly. Many scientists cited lack of evolutionary pressure for the virus to get milder.

However, each subsequent re-infection is expected to become milder as people's immune systems get used to the virus and learn how to fight it (as it is the case with common colds). The very big question is how all of us get infected for the first time and this is where vaccines become critical.

twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1411697682897326081?lang=en

boys3 · 06/09/2021 18:29

and equivalent week to date for regions

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 06/09/2021 18:31

age split up to and including cases reported today with a 5th Sep spec date (just England, as with the others)

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 06/09/2021 18:34

and age rate per 100,000

The full data to council level has the five day lag. The Sep 5th figure is therefore a seven day rate but without all the cases being "in" yet. So you'd expect this rate to be a bit lower. No prizes for where the growth is; albeit at nothing like the SW 15-19 trajectory after BoardMasters. Of course in most places this is the first full week of school starting

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
Bordois · 06/09/2021 18:48

Going back to Scotland, just reading a few threads that seem to indicate that the rise in cases started after restrictions were released bur before ant effect of return to school would have shown. That's Not to say schools going back didn't increase what was already happening, but it supports the "schools reflect not drive community cases" theory.

wintertravel1980 · 06/09/2021 18:55

Thanks again, boys3. Very interesting age related tables.

Bizawit · 06/09/2021 18:58

[quote wintertravel1980]The most important of these is the lack of selection pressure for it to become less deadly since the most infectious period is several days before it makes you very ill.

I think the hypothesis regarding transition to endemicity has never been made on the assumption Covid would become less deadly. Many scientists cited lack of evolutionary pressure for the virus to get milder.

However, each subsequent re-infection is expected to become milder as people's immune systems get used to the virus and learn how to fight it (as it is the case with common colds). The very big question is how all of us get infected for the first time and this is where vaccines become critical.

twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1411697682897326081?lang=en[/quote]
Really interesting- thanks for this.

Out of curiosity, how do we know that people are most infectious before they develop symptoms? Has this been definitively established?

AvaCallanach · 06/09/2021 19:01

Warning: not data. Someone up thread was asking why Leicester goes back early. Traditionally Leicester had a "factory fortnight" in early July when all factories closed down and workers had to take their holiday. Of course children were removed from school in their hundreds to accompany parents on their annual holiday so at some point Leicester decided to alter term dates to accommodate the factory fortnight, so it closes schools early July and they go back late August.

Back to data.....

Piggywaspushed · 06/09/2021 19:03

Nottingham used to do it for the Goose Fair, too, but didn't stick with it, unlike Leics!

Wakeupin2022 · 06/09/2021 19:23

We used have different fairs and even different Easter weekends where I grew up!

I lived in a large town next to a bigger city and that Friday / Monday was always big business for business for shops!

Sorry back to data Grin

Sunshinegirl82 · 06/09/2021 19:33

@QueenStromba

I think it's more that people don't want to live a restricted life (even the lower level restrictions like masks) and the vast majority are happy to accept raised levels of risk both at an individual and population levels so that they don't have to.

Looking back it seems to me that ultimately the human race as a whole has always preferred risk to restrictions.

JanglyBeads · 06/09/2021 20:09

Potential ‘lockdown’ over an extended (for most schools) October half term - SAGE sources:

inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533?fbclid=IwAR2z2KPgk8O2lAEQSilr4AuB77BxX6uuvgV_tgqNuKNmHR0cIadEiK4X5l4

Bizawit · 06/09/2021 20:25

[quote JanglyBeads]Potential ‘lockdown’ over an extended (for most schools) October half term - SAGE sources:

inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533?fbclid=IwAR2z2KPgk8O2lAEQSilr4AuB77BxX6uuvgV_tgqNuKNmHR0cIadEiK4X5l4[/quote]
🥺🥺🥺

Bordois · 06/09/2021 20:27

2 weeks, to piss of the largest number of people for the minimum amount of gain...

lonelyplanet · 06/09/2021 20:42

@Bordois

2 weeks, to piss of the largest number of people for the minimum amount of gain...
I imagine that not "pushing the NHS beyond breaking point", would be the gain for all of us.
boys3 · 06/09/2021 20:54

oh dear, inews struggling again with the basics.

Nothing new there then.

Data related however, and with health being a devolved matter, admissions to hospital in England. The angle of the blue seven day average line being key here.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
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boys3 · 06/09/2021 20:56

hospitalisations in England, that seven day average line still edging upwards, albeit a relatively shallow trajectory.

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