Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

And, of course, Leicester still seems to be doing fine:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Leicester

Apparently Scotland have been working through a backlog which may explain the higher than expected number of cases today. Will be interesting to see where these cases go in when looking at specimen dates.

@notgotthejob
or maybe they will. If there's a new variant that evades vacc protection then we can start this whole rollercoaster from the total beginning. Hence the point of limiting potential spread by using a combination of measures that work.
This is exactly the type of event that I would classify to "better be safe than sorry". But as I said: it seems that i am in the very minority with this view.
Most people are fine with letting it rip and let's see what happens. Because it is only dangerous to the elderly (and they are vaxxed) and it poses zero danger to kids, as they can't catch it. Why would they bother with actual facts?

@wintertravel1980
I think you have your head in the clouds (not an insult) but I really hope that for some strange reason you'll be right. we'll see.
Although last year sept onwards showed a diff pict.

Most people are fine with letting it rip and let's see what happens. Because it is only dangerous to the elderly (and they are vaxxed) and it poses zero danger to kids, as they can't catch it. Why would they bother with actual facts?

If you actually listened to people you would realise this is not the case.

Many of us have come to the realisation that restrictions are beginning to do more harm than good. It may be they are required again, but at this time they ain't really going to help.

Its easy to criticise everyone else when you are in your own little bubble. I get it, I am too and its been easier to keep my family of 4 Covid free. But I am also realistic enough to realise that it's not the case for everyone else.

@TheSunIsStillShining well yes a new variant the totally evades the vaccine would put us back at square one. But right now, that's not the case and this is a data thread - not a worst case speculation thread.

Can anyone tell me what the 'big number ' is ?

Scotland reported just over 7k cases today, and England just over 27k. Total UK cases were 41,192 reported

The "big" number reported for Scotland was 7,065.

At the national level Scotland has currently got the 7-day prevalence of 792. Blackburn peaked at roughly 665. South Tyneside went all the way to 1,400. Scotland has got high levels of vaccination and an average level of acquired immunity so it will probably peak somewhere in between the two.

IPSOS Mori polling found 7 in 10 patents are concerned that their child will get covid. 43 percent think schools may have to close. I think some MM boards are dominated by voices of the 3 in 10 but the concern is there which is a pointer perhaps to vaccine uptake, should it be allowed by CMOs.
Will try to find link.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@notgotthejob
or maybe they will. If there's a new variant that evades vacc protection then we can start this whole rollercoaster from the total beginning. Hence the point of limiting potential spread by using a combination of measures that work.
This is exactly the type of event that I would classify to "better be safe than sorry". But as I said: it seems that i am in the very minority with this view.
Most people are fine with letting it rip and let's see what happens. Because it is only dangerous to the elderly (and they are vaxxed) and it poses zero danger to kids, as they can't catch it. Why would they bother with actual facts?[/quote]
But you aren't offering 'facts'.

You're offering vague, worst case scenario speculation, based on nothing in particular.

And can we please ban the expressing 'letting it rip'? Unless it's a hilarious fart thread, obviously!

fair enough to be told off that this is a data thread.
overheard conversations outside my bubble terrify the hell out of me as more and more i hear how people are fed up and don't give a fuck any more. and I see this when I am out and about. I get asked why am I still wearing a mask and even got told today to take it off, because it makes me a sheep to have it on. I was minding my own business, why the eff do ppl think it is alright to bully others? I don't tell others to wear that effing mask, I go out of the shop if there are too many ppl. But it feels very unfair that I have to limit my life because the general joe public are idiots.

Fair enough that restrictions are bad. They are, but the most logical, common sense mitigation measures aren't even used. why?
Why are we allowing gov neglect to take us into another set of big restrictions when we could do our own small part to prevent that?
Last sept we started with a fraction of the cases we have right now and look where we ended up
Fair enough that now we don't have a new vacc evading variant. then why create good circumstances for it to appear?

Obviously I meant parents and MN boards. MM boards are a whole new level!

@TheSunIsStillShining

fair enough to be told off that this is a data thread. overheard conversations outside my bubble terrify the hell out of me as more and more i hear how people are fed up and don't give a fuck any more. and I see this when I am out and about. I get asked why am I still wearing a mask and even got told today to take it off, because it makes me a sheep to have it on. I was minding my own business, why the eff do ppl think it is alright to bully others? I don't tell others to wear that effing mask, I go out of the shop if there are too many ppl. But it feels very unfair that I have to limit my life because the general joe public are idiots.

Fair enough that restrictions are bad. They are, but the most logical, common sense mitigation measures aren't even used. why?
Why are we allowing gov neglect to take us into another set of big restrictions when we could do our own small part to prevent that?
Last sept we started with a fraction of the cases we have right now and look where we ended up
Fair enough that now we don't have a new vacc evading variant. then why create good circumstances for it to appear?

I'm not entirely sure what your opinions about the 'idiocy' of 'the general joe public' have to do with a data thread?

If you want to 'vent' about masks and 'mitigations' why not start another thread, or post on a relevant discussion, instead of trying to hijack this one?

@TheSunIsStillShining

I might have lost the plot... "the UK’s vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi suggesting that healthy 12- to 15-year-olds could override their parents’ decision on vaccination in the right circumstances, as the government prepares to overrule advice and extend jabs to younger teens."

1. although MHRC apprived Pf long ago there is no option for kids to get vaxxed because JCVI won't allow it. Gov says they want to but alas they can't because of JCVI. As if that ever stopped them before.

1. parents et al are totally fine with imposing a mandatory future health risk to the next generations. It's acknowledged that every kid who goes to school will eventually get it. No one bats an eyelid.

1. we do not let 12 year olds decide on medical treatment, but in theory -the ones we are not vaccinating- should be able to choose if they get vaccinated or not. Why not let them choose if they want polio, mmr, any other vaccination? Too young? Never mind, wait until they are 12 and can decide. Because at 12 they are fully capable of viewing complex issues and making rational decisions that will effect the rest of their lives... why not ask them to choose an occupation that they will have to stick with?

This gov has taken batshit crazy to a whole new level and ppl are complacently sitting around and are fine with it.

It is not "gov has taken batshit crazy". The right to consent or refuse treatment turns both ways. Gillick competence is a matter of law; the decision taken by the House of Lords was that children with the intellect and competence to understand what is involved in medical actions have a right to consent. Comparing medical procedures that may have a time impact, with a career that should be changed at any time, is facile at best.

Here is the history: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gillick_competence.

@TheSunIsStillShining

3. we do not let 12 year olds decide on medical treatment, but in theory -the ones we are not vaccinating- should be able to choose if they get vaccinated or not. Why not let them choose if they want polio, mmr, any other vaccination? Too young? Never mind, wait until they are 12 and can decide. Because at 12 they are fully capable of viewing complex issues and making rational decisions that will effect the rest of their lives... why not ask them to choose an occupation that they will have to stick with?

This is all to do with Gillick Competency and has been around since 1985 - brought about in part due to contraception rather than anything else

[quote wintertravel1980]And, of course, Leicester still seems to be doing fine:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Leicester[/quote]
Sorry,I'm a bit confused,what do you mean? I live in Leicester and am a lurker on this thread. But I struggle to understand the data shown!

IPSOS Mori polling found 7 in 10 patents are concerned that their child will get covid. 43 percent think schools may have to close. I think some MM boards are dominated by voices of the 3 in 10 but the concern is there which is a pointer perhaps to vaccine uptake

I am "concerned" that my child will get covid, because of the impact it will have on their life, the restrictions they'll face, the isolation, not because of any risk to health. That statement says nothing on my view of vaccination or indeed why I am concerned.

Sorry,I'm a bit confused,what do you mean? I live in Leicester and am a lurker on this thread. But I struggle to understand the data shown!

In case winter isn't around... I think they are referring to the fact schools went back in Leicester a couple of weeks ago, but there hasn't been a big increase in cases because of this.

Well, I think that's all part of the picture of parental concerns though fred.

Anyhoo, since it is data , here are the details of the poll:

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/parents-concerned-over-children-catching-covid-at-school-poll-shows-3372433

It has to be said, 7 in 10 is the same figure as the proportion of parents in June who said they would support vaccination of children, although that may have shifted since June, of course.

It's a bit bleak actually : much pessimism...

For information, Scotland still has s mask mandate and I believe secondary pups are still wearing masks in school........

I think they are referring to the fact schools went back in Leicester a couple of weeks ago, but there hasn't been a big increase in cases because of this.

Yes, exactly. Thank you, Bordois.

Leicester case trajectory seems nice and flat even though schools went back on August 25.

People who are beating the drum about Scotland (iSage) tend to completely ignore Leicester.

What about parents of younger children. I am at the point of accepting they will catch it. Kts not something I would expose them too unnecessarily but on the other hand they are too young for vaccination and I think I would rather them have it before (if at all) a vaccination is available to them.

My distance from family plays a large part in my thinking- we are not regularly seeing vulnerable family.