Israel's worrying 4th wave

[onlychildhamster]

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From the FT:

Since late last year, Israel has been a laboratory for the world. After winning early access to BioNTech/Pfizer jab supplies in exchange for sharing data on its effects, Israel was the first country to celebrate fully reopening its entire economy after double-jabbing 70 per cent of its population by early April. Now, one of the world’s most-vaccinated nations is among the first to experience an alarming fourth wave of infections — and hospitalisations — and is rushing to give booster shots. The rest of the world should take notice.

New infections in Israel have surged to the highest in six months, with signs that protection against severe disease has fallen significantly for elderly people vaccinated early this year. The data has caveats, but the trend is clear: six to eight months after second jabs, immunity starts to wane. Most recently, the health ministry found that for over-65s who received a second shot in January, protection against severe illness from the now-dominant Delta variant had fallen as low as 55 per cent, though some analysts question this

Since late last year, Israel has been a laboratory for the world. After winning early access to BioNTech/Pfizer jab supplies in exchange for sharing data on its effects, Israel was the first country to celebrate fully reopening its entire economy after double-jabbing 70 per cent of its population by early April. Now, one of the world’s most-vaccinated nations is among the first to experience an alarming fourth wave of infections — and hospitalisations — and is rushing to give booster shots. The rest of the world should take notice.

New infections in Israel have surged to the highest in six months, with signs that protection against severe disease has fallen significantly for elderly people vaccinated early this year. The data has caveats, but the trend is clear: six to eight months after second jabs, immunity starts to wane. Most recently, the health ministry found that for over-65s who received a second shot in January, protection against severe illness from the now-dominant Delta variant had fallen as low as 55 per cent, though some analysts question this figure.

The government also estimated recently that the vaccine’s effectiveness in stopping new infections among everyone who received second jabs in January had dropped sharply. It remained 82 per cent effective, however, in preventing severe illness, and 86 per cent effective in stopping hospitalisations.

While the unjabbed remain five to six times as likely to end up seriously ill, 90 per cent of Israel’s new infections are among relatively highly-vaccinated over-50s. Health officials have warned that, at current rates, at least 5,000 people would need hospital beds by early September, half with severe medical needs — twice as many as Israel is equipped to handle. Israel has started offering over-60s, and soon over-50s, a third shot. If this proves ineffective, the government has warned that a new lockdown may be unavoidable.

Israel’s case may reflect a particular combination of factors, and may not be exactly replicated elsewhere. It used almost exclusively Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine, with three-week intervals between jabs. Immunity from the Oxford/AstraZeneca or Moderna jabs may prove longer-lasting. Several countries, like the UK, extended the gap between doses to 12 weeks — so second jabs were received later. Not all followed a strict policy of inoculating the eldest first.

But Israel’s experience still has implications. Until more is known about the durability of protection from different jabs, it suggests even highly-vaccinated countries should retain some preventive measures, such as mask-wearing in public places.

@Bobholll

Yet again everyone seems to be completely missing the point that the vaccine is still massively working to prevent serious illness & death. Which is the main purpose of the vaccine. Israel are simply seeing that the vaccines don’t work so well against Delta in terms of stopping transmission. Which we already know in the U.K.

Yes

Without wishing to derail further, I do hope those condemning others for 'bullying' certain posters are equally upset by those posters name-calling, insisting that others on MN are happy to watch people die, needlessly ramping up anxiety and worry with their insistence based on their own projections that there will be 100k cases a day by a random date, and so on.

It's important that those posting misleading, offensive, hyperbolic and potentially dangerous nonsense are called out on it. That's not bullying.

Can we get a breakdown of how many of the deaths/hospitalizations are occurring in fully vaccinated Israelis, versus how many are occurring in unvaccinated people whose vulnerability has only become salient as the extra-infectious Delta variant spreads? I'd like to know how much of this is really due to "vaccine wearing off" (hmm) and how much of this is vax refusers.

Hmmmm!
www.dw.com/en/covid-why-are-infections-rising-in-israel/a-58887131

"Taking a sample from August 16, 2021:
154.7 severely ill patients in Israel were unvaccinated.
48.4 severely ill patients were partially vaccinated
And 19.8 severely ill patients were fully vaccinated"

So, as I suspected; this appears to be more about the busy Delta version uncovering the vulnerability of those who have refused the vaccine (or, in a few cases, perhaps been unable to have it for medical reasons). It appears to be perfectly possible for fully vaccinated people to get very ill, but they are outnumbered by the not-fully-jabbed by a ratio of about 10:1.

People seem to be getting a bit excited about falling antibody levels, but this is normal with many vaccines. The long-term immunity to COVID is probably more about t-cells and b-cells, which "remember" how to kick the virus out. Remember SARS? When the immune systems of people who had had SARS 17 years ago were challenged last year, they showed a strong level of immunity against the virus. Their t-cells and b-cells remembered.

That said, most countries are planning to give the old folks boosters, perhaps together with the flu shot. If it increases uptake of the flu shot (which is still not all that high in many countries), this will be a good thing for everyone anyway.

Thanks @user1477391263 - this actually ties with anecdotal evidence a doctor was chatting to me about in hospital recently. He said those seriously ill & ventilated were 94% unvaccinated, 5% partially and 0-1% vaccinated. The vaccinated were all 85+ in age or with serious comorbidities. Not that those people matter any less or should die but just for context of vaccine effectiveness in the general population.

This is the latest data from the PHE website on the number of deaths per age group on 6 August.

Under 1 year: 1
1 to 14: 1
15 to 44: 39
45 to 64: 105
65 to 74: 100
75 to 84: 129
85+ : 127

I'm not sure that ties in with the idea that the most seriously ill are unvaccinated. Surely the most seriously ill are the ones who ultimately die and they are mainly over age 75. The uptake of the vaccine in the over 70s is really high.

@bumbleymummy

This is the latest data from the PHE website on the number of deaths per age group on 6 August.

Under 1 year: 1
1 to 14: 1
15 to 44: 39
45 to 64: 105
65 to 74: 100
75 to 84: 129
85+ : 127

I'm not sure that ties in with the idea that the most seriously ill are unvaccinated. Surely the most seriously ill are the ones who ultimately die and they are mainly over age 75. The uptake of the vaccine in the over 70s is really high.

Yes but hey are also more likely to die.......

Vaccine has reduced there chance of dying very significantly bit there risk from Covid was so high, that even a 95% reduction (not checked data) in them dying from Covid, there risk is still greater than an unvaccinated youngster.

That is why that group will hopefully receive boosters in the next few months, but they will only ever reduce the risk not remove it.

Appalling spelling grammar on the above....

Oh, yes, I’m not disagreeing that the vaccine has reduced their risk of serious illness. Just questioning this part:

those seriously ill & ventilated were 94% unvaccinated, 5% partially and 0-1% vaccinated. The vaccinated were all 85+ in age or with serious comorbidities.

I agree with this, I find the very personal comments really disgusting, there are two or three posters who are bullied for having a different point of view

I cannot abide the way the word bullying is thrown around a forum for adults as though we are in the playground. Calm down or tell the teacher if you're that bothered.

The poster in question is absolutely toxic and I, for one, will continue to call them out constantly. Really anxious worried people come on here and are seeing the repeated shite from this poster and it is always inaccurate, false and misleading and mostly made-up predictions. Why you would seek to defend someone like this is beyond me, and please don't hide behind "it's bullying". Grow up.

@WouldBeGood

Nice scaremongering *@onlychildhamster*

Maybe be aware if this before you post. This pish worries people needlessly

Linking to a FT article is not scaremongering.

I have absolutely no problem with posters who challenge false / misleading claims and data - in either direction - by posting alternative data or explaining why the claim is unlikely to be true.

I ONLY have problems with those whose contribution is a personal attack (here is X again; I bet X is happy; I’m sure X will be along soon) or a general derogatory comment (‘the doom mongers - or the covid deniers - will be along soon’) with no other contribution to the debate and often no link to the specific thread at all.

I do report to MN, but I can see that a dispersed attack of snide comments is much harder to police than a small number of egregious personal attacks on one thread.

@onlychildhamster

I am particularly worried that this might mean another lockdown even as a highly vaxed country since i dont think we started administering booster shots in time for winter. An increase in cases + winter flu could tip the balance.

Scaremongering

It is a point of view, with reasons given. You can cry ‘scaremongering’ with no supporting evidence, or can state ‘No, my opinion is that, despite the increase in Covid and flu, vaccination and boosters should protect hospitals’, or can gove personal experience ‘I have already heard from my GP to expect a booster within the next month so I think they are being offered in a timely manner’. Just shouting ’scaremongering’ is like those MPs booing or cheering rather than bothering to engage with the Parliamentary debate - useless sound and fury, signifying nothong.

@WouldBeGood Emphasis on the word' might'. it may happen, may not happen. Either way, its good for people to think about it so they can plan ahead rather than start threads several months later about trips they booked, and plans they had which were all scarpered by winter lockdown.

I think it indicates a serious mental health problem if people are triggered by the vague possibility of a lockdown that may or may not happen. Its sad.

@WouldBeGood

People just need to get a grip

Your opinion

Nope
An opinion
People are allowed to have different views from you

The prospect of lockdown will indeed trigger serious mental health problems. You don’t sound very sad about it.

@bumbleymummy

This is the latest data from the PHE website on the number of deaths per age group on 6 August.

Under 1 year: 1
1 to 14: 1
15 to 44: 39
45 to 64: 105
65 to 74: 100
75 to 84: 129
85+ : 127

I'm not sure that ties in with the idea that the most seriously ill are unvaccinated. Surely the most seriously ill are the ones who ultimately die and they are mainly over age 75. The uptake of the vaccine in the over 70s is really high.

Sir David Spiegelhalter ( eminent statistician who is always very balanced on how he discusses the pandemic) was speaking on radio 4 a couple of weeks ago, he said that he as a double vaccinnated nearly 69 year old was still at far greater risk of dying from COVID than an unvaccinated 30 year old....there will always be double vaccinnated people in the death stats but hopefully in the future far fewer of those dying or seriously ill will be younger double vaccinated people.

@WouldBeGood we are all different but if there was going to be a lockdown i would rather be mentally prepared for it. Its not something I can change or do anything about, so why be upset about it. However, i would be angry with myself if i booked anything and then was unable to go. Thats just my opinion though!

Of course the people who don't think there is going to be a lockdown should carry on, but I would say probably best to book things that are good with refunds/deferrals just to be on the safe side.

[quote onlychildhamster]@WouldBeGood Emphasis on the word' might'. it may happen, may not happen. Either way, its good for people to think about it so they can plan ahead rather than start threads several months later about trips they booked, and plans they had which were all scarpered by winter lockdown.

I think it indicates a serious mental health problem if people are triggered by the vague possibility of a lockdown that may or may not happen. Its sad.[/quote]
And yet you advocate avoiding planning anything lest the “vague possibility of a lockdown that may or may not happen” results in those plans being cancelled.

@Aposterhasnoname I mean , its a risk we all have to assess for ourselves! I wouldn't say life is 'normal' now so there is definitely a higher risk in booking anything compared to pre covid. A lot of holidays/days out are quite expensive now, so I don't think people would be too happy about losing money or having plans ruined. I would say its more prudent to see how things go at this point but thats my view.

Your post shows a fundamental misunderstanding of mental health issues.

Unsurprising in this type of thread.

Remember SARS? When the immune systems of people who had had SARS 17 years ago were challenged last year, they showed a strong level of immunity against the virus. Their t-cells and b-cells remembered

This is really useful info. Do you have a source?

I'm double vaccinated but I'm actually worried about receiving annual boosters because it feels like pumping my body with experimental drugs which noone knows the full after effects of yet

Isn’t this the wave we experienced earlier in the year? We have little to no restrictions in England however cases/hospitalizations/deaths haven’t spiked like SAGE said it would and is in within the government’s estimates. PHE said today that the vaccines have stopped nearly 100,000 deaths which is far better than we could have ever imagined.
It seems the vaccines though aren’t as good at preventing transmission as we hoped but the same article says “The government also estimated recently that the vaccine’s effectiveness in stopping new infections among everyone who received second jabs in January had dropped sharply. It remained 82 per cent effective, however, in preventing severe illness, and 86 per cent effective in stopping hospitalisations.” So surely that means the vaccines are doing what they’re supposed to?