Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

I just feel that after vaccination, there's nowhere else to go, we don't have any more 'tools' after that because lockdowns forever will see me moving back to England.

I'd send my kids to school of that were an option. We are an active family, I have taken them scuba diving, parasailing, mountain biking, horse riding, skiing etc.

All inherently risky.

I understand the need to lockdown for now. But once everyone has had a chance to get vaccinated (whether they choose to or not) my compliance will end.

@Emsmaman

It's interesting isn't it, my friends in South Australia are posting on social media about getting the vaccine so that they can travel again. It doesn't seem to be related to keeping safe from covid (which I understand). However I still have the impression a lot don't realise that they haven't dodged covid completely and it will still be coming their way? Sorry for garbled post, only just woke up.

People have different priorities and fears. If they're young and healthy perhaps that's their main concern at the moment.

My view is that people need hope and a line in the sand date. Boris set the 19th July here in the U.K., there was massive pushback worldwide, U.K. is reckless, Petri dish of the world, etc but all wrong. That is leadership imo,
Australia needs to do similar, set an achievable date, push vaccines as much as possible, keep working down the age range ( it’s a mistake to open to everyone all at once imo as you get higher rates but not necessarily the higher risk people) , fly vaccines out to remote communities, get religious leaders on board. Beg , borrow vaccines from other countries where they have reached their targets. And stop criticising other states ( and other countries for that matter) who are further along the road than you are.

@user1477391263

History has shown (I'm thinking of the post-September 11th years and the unending bloody War On Terrorism) that populations can be trained to be terrified and keep being terrified of statistically tiny risks.

It does make me wonder what's going to happen over the next foreseeable.

No doubt most Australians are getting ready to take a more nuanced view of COVID and live with the virus.

But, just as with the post Sep 11 thing, you'll probably have a substantial minority of the population who keep on being frightened of the (ever smaller) risk, allowing it to take over their lives. The inevitable spread of the virus in Ozwhen it comes, as it must domay prompt many some v frightened people to whisk their kids out of school, stop going to shops or restaurants or domestic travel, and avoid contact with other people. It might take a few years for the fear thing to burn out.

Well, yes, there will always be overly anxious people in every country. There are clearly some in the UK as well, judging by mumsnet! But the rest of us will get our vaccinations and get on with our life, as you're doing in the UK now.

@sashagabadon

My view is that people need hope and a line in the sand date. Boris set the 19th July here in the U.K., there was massive pushback worldwide, U.K. is reckless, Petri dish of the world, etc but all wrong. That is leadership imo, Australia needs to do similar, set an achievable date, push vaccines as much as possible, keep working down the age range ( it’s a mistake to open to everyone all at once imo as you get higher rates but not necessarily the higher risk people) , fly vaccines out to remote communities, get religious leaders on board. Beg , borrow vaccines from other countries where they have reached their targets. And stop criticising other states ( and other countries for that matter) who are further along the road than you are.

They have - 70% for an end to major lockdowns and 80% for international travel. They're also floating the idea of different rules for the vaccinated.

We ARE getting more doses from abroad as I posted above - a million coming tonight.

On current trends the70% will be by November and the 80 by December. So it's not at all like when the UK was locked down and there was no vaccine available and no end in sight. There's a very clear end in sight, and, in many areas, we are not locked down at all, kids are in school etc etc.

@MarshaBradyo

Oh yes. Have a look at any Australian parenting Internet forum at the moment. It’s all ‘lets’s keep locking down til all children are vaccinated’ or ‘I just can’t sleep at night knowing little Isla or Henry might get Covid and be disabled for life’. The crazy is real.

Blue do you mean for all dc even under 12s?

Yes. Some people are convinced that if we open up before young children can be vaccinated that under 12’s will be filling ICUs and struck down with long Covid.

70% is pretty low in terms of an unexposed population with little natural immunity. There will still be lots of cases and deaths at that level, though obviously much lower than without vaccination. I wonder are people ready for that?

NSW hit 50% single doses today, huge achievement.

They have opened up AZ to anyone 18+ that wants it.

They are also having what they are calling super sundays where the big hubs are targeting different groups, last weekend it was supermarket workers of any age as they are part of the groups transmitting now as essential workers.

This weekend I think is tradies so we can get construction back to work more safely.

There does seem to be a decent bit of strategy, rather than everyone go get vaccinated which makes me feel very happy.

@AllHailTheGreatGoddess

I'd send my kids to school of that were an option. We are an active family, I have taken them scuba diving, parasailing, mountain biking, horse riding, skiing etc.

All inherently risky.

I understand the need to lockdown for now. But once everyone has had a chance to get vaccinated (whether they choose to or not) my compliance will end.

I am a mad keen skier and used to be a horse owner. No doubt this contributes to me not being scared of Covid and being itching to travel again.

My problem is that it’s my immediate family that seem terrified. This has lead to many heated debates and disagreements at family gatherings. I could keep my mouth shut but I’m passionate about getting this country back and running and ending the fear. I’m pretty sure I’ve read about UK Mumsnet having similar arguments with family and friends so we’re not really that different

At 70% there will still be lockdowns as a last resort and they will be targeted areas rather than just everywhere.

From their projections it looks like closing the gap between 60% to 80% is quite a short time, maybe a month?

I mean an actual date though blue. Not a percentage vaccine target as that does not motivate people in fact can have the opposite effect where people just say well I’ll wait until we are 60% vaxed or whatever. I’ll wait for moderna or pfzier. Plus as others have commented what does 70% mean? It’s a forever moving target.

Well I’d prepare myself for a lot of lockdown in the future then. Delta really gets around.

Targeted local lockdowns have been abject failure anywhere I’ve seen them be applied.

NSW is going great guns now. I really hope it works. I think it will. And then watch the other premiers do a complete 360 as public opinion turns ( as it will, as it slowly is already)

I don't think percentages are the right way to think about it. There will be people who don't want to and as above people who want a particular vaccine over another. Fine with me. But the rest of us should not need to wait for then.

Once everyone has been offered/had the opportunity to get vaxxed then it is done.

Vaccination is not perfect. But nothing is.

@sashagabadon

I mean an actual date though blue. Not a percentage vaccine target as that does not motivate people in fact can have the opposite effect where people just say well I’ll wait until we are 60% vaxed or whatever. I’ll wait for moderna or pfzier. Plus as others have commented what does 70% mean? It’s a forever moving target.

Well I don't see the point in setting an arbitrary date. I think the exact opposite to you! It really incentivises people to get on and get vaxxed quickly so we can get back to normal ASAP! Otherwise, if we're opening up on x date regardless of vaccination rates then there's no real hurry (especially if you're in an area with no COVID).

@TheKeatingFive

Well I’d prepare myself for a lot of lockdown in the future then. Delta really gets around.

Targeted local lockdowns have been abject failure anywhere I’ve seen them be applied.

Lockdowns have been very effective in QLD.

@sashagabadon

NSW is going great guns now. I really hope it works. I think it will. And then watch the other premiers do a complete 360 as public opinion turns ( as it will, as it slowly is already)

What do you mean by 'complete 360?'

Lockdowns have been very effective in QLD.

You need to think about the impact of delta and the fact that lockdowns will naturally be less effective and more damaging every time you do them.

I realise I’m sounding very negative, I’m not doing that just for the sake of it. I just think reopening will be a big challenge and best to have realistic expectations going into it. Big push on vaccinations and prepping the population to accept a certain number of cases and deaths strike me as important right now.

Maybe a 180 not 360. I mean watch them pivot to a living with the virus position as they realise they will be left behind within Australia itself and also globally if they continue with a lockdown at high vaccination rate strategy. The public might be pro lockdown now, but just like in the U.K., it’s unsustainable politically once people are double jabbed.

I don't think opinion is turning towards NSW. I think it is obvious that Gladys does not listen to her embattled health advisors and tis making a foolish gamble with the vulnerable. At the moment only 8% of Aboriginal communities have been vaccinated. We have to get this right so we don't decimate the oldest living culture in the world.

The reason I say a date is that immunity seems to build over time, a longer gap between doses also helps as you probably need say 3 months, first jab, 8-12 week gap, second jab, 2 further weeks to full immunity.
So waiting is foolish with a date in play, say 1st February 2022 ( or whatever)

@sashagabadon

Maybe a 180 not 360. I mean watch them pivot to a living with the virus position as they realise they will be left behind within Australia itself and also globally if they continue with a lockdown at high vaccination rate strategy. The public might be pro lockdown now, but just like in the U.K., it’s unsustainable politically once people are double jabbed.

Oh I think it's only the WA guy that has said that. The others are on board with the 70/80 % thing.

Mark's response is a lot more nuanced than that, he's just not committing to a total opening up when nobody knows what the healthcare situation will look like. If you read the whole interview, it's more positive than the headlines are making out ( and more realistic than making guarantees at this stage). Bear in mind WA economy is booming, lockdowns would protect our economy if it prevents mines / oil and gas from being impacted.

@TheKeatingFive

Lockdowns have been very effective in QLD.

You need to think about the impact of delta and the fact that lockdowns will naturally be less effective and more damaging every time you do them.

I realise I’m sounding very negative, I’m not doing that just for the sake of it. I just think reopening will be a big challenge and best to have realistic expectations going into it. Big push on vaccinations and prepping the population to accept a certain number of cases and deaths strike me as important right now.

Yes, we've had delta outbreaks here twice and twice eliminated it with a short sharp lockdown. It's obvious now that people still catch it when double jabbed, so yeah there will be cases, we all know that. But we want that to happen after everyone 12 and over has had a chance to be vaccinated.

In which case the infections will mainly be mild and low rates of serious illness/death. They're already reporting deaths in NSW as 4 unvaccinated, 1 with a single dose etc. so everyone's getting the picture.