Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

Essentially the plan is to maintain a policy of elimination/zero community covid while gradually opening up and allowing people coming into the country to self-isolate at home rather than in managed isolation hotels.

That's really not going to work, and it's a bit reminiscent of the way JA keeps blowing hot and cold with Five Eyes-saying she wants to be part of the alliance, while also trying to remain friendly with China. In 2021, that kind of policy isn't going to work any more-NZ needs to pick a side (the Five Eyes side, hopefully).

With COVID, there's a need for clear and honest messaging here. If they want to open up borders, they will need to accept spread of the virus. COVID isn't going anywhere.

And as we have seen in HK, Australia and other countries, if governments refuse to be honest with their electorates and spell out that COVID IS COMING, LIKE IT OR NOT. GET READY OR GET SICK, then a lot of people will decide that since they can afford to be awfully fussy about vaccines, "wait and see," "Why should I get vaccinated it looks like there's going to be next-to-no COVID in the country anyway?" etc.

It seems like NZ is hoping it will be able to treat COVID like measles--"we can keep community spread out and quickly crush any outbreaks that occur." But COVID isn't anything like measles, and is far harder to eliminate.

I think if any of the other states had taken in the enormous number of returning travellers, etc, as NSW - in particular, Sydney - did, they would be most likely struggling with their own outbreaks. Gladys is not perfect, but she has held the helm throughout with dedication and passion, and I can't put the blame on her for fuckwits choosing to create their own 'rules' and charging up to Byron Bay, or doing removalist jobs after testing positive, etc etc.

I'm in NZ and today had my first shot. Combined with the news that we may be able to to open borders in 6 months, this feels like light at the end of the tunnel.
We have been lucky. No one is ungrateful. But I really want to

Want to see friends and family in the UK and at the moment it is impossible because if we leave NZ we can't get back in. It's like being trapped on a luxury holiday.

@Kokeshi123

Essentially the plan is to maintain a policy of elimination/zero community covid while gradually opening up and allowing people coming into the country to self-isolate at home rather than in managed isolation hotels.

That's really not going to work, and it's a bit reminiscent of the way JA keeps blowing hot and cold with Five Eyes-saying she wants to be part of the alliance, while also trying to remain friendly with China. In 2021, that kind of policy isn't going to work any more-NZ needs to pick a side (the Five Eyes side, hopefully).

With COVID, there's a need for clear and honest messaging here. If they want to open up borders, they will need to accept spread of the virus. COVID isn't going anywhere.

And as we have seen in HK, Australia and other countries, if governments refuse to be honest with their electorates and spell out that COVID IS COMING, LIKE IT OR NOT. GET READY OR GET SICK, then a lot of people will decide that since they can afford to be awfully fussy about vaccines, "wait and see," "Why should I get vaccinated it looks like there's going to be next-to-no COVID in the country anyway?" etc.

It seems like NZ is hoping it will be able to treat COVID like measles--"we can keep community spread out and quickly crush any outbreaks that occur." But COVID isn't anything like measles, and is far harder to eliminate.

I was interested in this plan mentioned by pp so googled. This crush it line stood out to me too.

So after vaccinating and letting in low risk to self isolate at home the plan is to stop community spread still? With lockdown?

Yes they’re still planning to eliminate it with level 4 (I.e. very strict) lockdowns. Which will obviously be bad for schools, businesses etc. I’m baffled by it tbh. Clearly delta is going to get in. We can’t keep having level 4 lockdowns over and over (well we could but clearly people will tire of that pretty quickly). I think if we’re allowing people in who just self- isolate we have to accept we’re going to have community transmission and get on with it.

A quarter of a million people got vaxxed in Aus yesterday (270 000+)... yes small by global standards but it is bloody good for aus. NSW is in struggle town but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Aus and NZ and countries that have adopted similar strategies will have a bumpy ride on the exit of this pandemic in comparison to countries like the UK and US who experienced horrific starts and midpoints. Same pandemic differing experiences.

I think the main person to blame in all of this is SloMo. Had he been proactive with vaccination procurement and roll out, we wouldn't be in this situation now. His contempt with Pfizer executives put us massively on the backfoot needing Kevin Rudd to step in. Virtually everyone that has sadly died of Covid in this recent outbreak has been unvaccinated - many of these could have been avoided if he had implemented an earlier and more robust roll out.

With the border policy, Aus had the opportunity to get the population vaccinated quickly and then open up. Instead we are in a cycle of (often) short but increasingly frequent lockdowns which is massively disruptive to businesses and the general population.

Given the number of migrants in Aus, there is a significant number of people distressed at the length of time they have been separated from family in other countries. But I guess SloMo doesn't care about this as he was still able to go and see his trace his family ancestry in Cornwall. Many skilled migrants are now opting to leave which is going to result in brain drain in the coming years which will impact healthcare, education etc. All of this could have been prevented with a faster and more effective vaccine roll out.

With Australia's propensity to sack prime ministers, I am completely bemused as to how SloMo is still in power.

NZ’s plan isn’t going to keep delta out or keep it from spreading when it gets in. Is it supposed to?

@alwayscrashinginthesamecar1

Not all of Australia! We are doing fine here in the West thanks! But yes Gladys totally stuffed it, but thankfully it has people racing to get jabbed, and we are on track to hit 80% by December, when they are heavily foreshadowing we will be re-opening internal borders at least. Meanwhile the WA State Premier statedaddy has made the WA border even tighter, if you want to come in from NSW now not only do you need to quarantine, you also need at least one jab. Fine by me, I get my second jab next week.

'We are doing fine here in the West, thanks.' This is such a naive comment. No area is fine. Covid spreads rampant even if you are jabbed you can catch and spread it.

@TheKeatingFive

NZ’s plan isn’t going to keep delta out or keep it from spreading when it gets in. Is it supposed to?

Yes, apparently it’s supposed to. It clearly won’t. I can’t work out if the govt genuinely think it will work or if they are just gradually preparing us to accept community transmission. I’ve fully supported NZ’s response and I know there are no easy answers. I’m moving towards, get double vaxxed (had my first Pfizer last week), look after my health (I’m in a higher-risk group) and just get on with it

Oh it's so sad to see NSW in such a state. It's like watching a very slow car crash.

We have been incredibly well looked after in NZ and it was great to hear the plan around borders re-opening but boy it's horrible to see the rest of the world suffering. Can but hope the vaccine roll out ramps up.

I can’t work out if the govt genuinely think it will work or if they are just gradually preparing us to accept community transmission

Well the latter would be sensible, maybe that is the strategy,

I’m moving towards, get double vaxxed (had my first Pfizer last week), look after my health (I’m in a higher-risk group) and just get on with it

It’s all you can do. If it’s any consolation, anyone I know who had it post jab had a very mild dose, indistinguishable from a bad cold.

@Cosmos123, not naive in the slightest! Obviously I meant we are doing fine at the minute, I am perfectly aware of how things can change in an instant, particularly with the Delta variant. It just gets tiresome seeing people state 'Australia is fucked' over and over on here, when, no, its only a bit of it that has rising numbers. People seem to forget how big this country is (or they don't realise).

If Gladys was happy to take the praise, and be hailed as the "woman who saved Australia" in that ridiculous, photoshopped puff piece, then surely she should also take the criticism when it goes to shit. Agree with pp though, Scott Morrison and federal government have the most to answer for (in many areas, dont even get me started on their climate change bullshit).

Oh, and his decision to join with Clive Palmer of all people to sue Western Australia over its border policy, wasting $1mill of taxpayers funds tell you all you need to know about his priorities and crappy judgement.

let alone being judged by the company he keeps... that QAnon guy and Hillsong fella are reason enough for him to be voted out.

i really hold out hope that we will see Penny Wong in the top job in the near future

[quote alwayscrashinginthesamecar1]**@Cosmos123, not naive in the slightest! Obviously I meant we are doing fine at the minute, I am perfectly aware of how things can change in an instant, particularly with the Delta variant. It just gets tiresome seeing people state 'Australia is fucked' over and over on here, when, no, its only a bit of it that has rising numbers. People seem to forget how big this country is (or they don't realise).[/quote]
The world is a big place and it made no different.

Double vaccine and herd immunity is what will reduce the deaths.
If one region is not so affected it is only a matter of time.
Lockdowns etc merely delay the inevitable.

Sadly I don't think Penny Wong would do it despite being the best political leader of her generation. Just hope that the loathing and disappointment expressed about Morrison in this thread is translated into the polls and we can get on and work against the climate emergency.

Apologies that my thread title excluded the non East Coast.

Lockdowns have given us the breathing space and time to administer millions of vaccines, saving tens of thousands of lives in Australia. I think that is a pretty worthwhile outcome. Of course we will have to open up in time, but I think lockdown has been very effective and worthwhile here. Hopefully we ill be able to stop lockdowns soon once more of us are vaccinated, that's the plan anyway.

Australia is in a mess atm ( now following U.K. plan as I knew they would despite comments of What! We’ll never do what the U.K. does!! ) but they’ll be through it and out the other side quicker. Although I think states will end up with different vaccination rates and I’m not sure what they will do if that happens.
However I think NZ is the country in the worse situation although they don’t realise it just yet. Some do, most don’t.
A small example, Amazon has just moved lord of the rings production to the U.K.. This is a big deal in NZ and I would bet my mortgage their quarantine policy is to blame. Other sectors/ businesses will follow suit as why would you do business in a country that is still aiming for zero Covid in a post vaccine world when you don’t have to. Loss of jobs, income much bigger threat than Covid.

@HamAndTomato

I’m in NZ and think it’s been dealt with brilliantly here so far. The plan announced yesterday - I’m really not so sure. Essentially the plan is to maintain a policy of elimination/zero community covid while gradually opening up and allowing people coming into the country to self-isolate at home rather than in managed isolation hotels. I just can’t see how that won’t result in someone breaking the rules and we end up with outbreaks. The 2 policies seem incompatible.

I wonder if we’re being prepared for letting covid in and just hoping numbers stay low through high vax rates.

I thought the point of the plan is recognising that there cannot now be herd immunity just from vaccines, because 80% is known to not be a sufficient vaccination rate to prevent spread. With Delta that's been estimated as an impossible 97%; even if sufficient adults could be persuaded, there aren't vaccines for children. Logically what will happen when NZ borders open is that you'll start to get lots of hopefully mild cases, it's just unavoidable because your unvaccinated including children have no immunity at all. You're starting the "flatten the curve" stage 2 years later but with huge numbers vaccinated, so it will hopefully not be too bad, but with experiences having been quite different than most of the rest of the world, it may be a shock initially. The smaller number of more severe cases from those who won't be vaccinated or who didn't get sufficient immunity will then unfortunately escalate. I don't know the capacity of NZ hospitals, but it's probable that you'll need some measures to suppress the spread to slow that down. The emphasis on "gradual" opening up is I think the start of preparing you all that it'll be a bumpy ride out, but that there is a route out.

FGS, NSW does not equal Australia! Victoria had 15 cases today and will likely be out of lockdown in a week or so, lots of QLD also coming out of lockdown this weekend. Other states are doing fine just now! Australia is not in a mess, although NSW isn't doing well, hopefully they will get a handle on it soon.

It’s quite annoying from a U.K. POV to see Australia and NZ now pivot to following the U.K. vaccine policies. Both countries were hugely publicly critical of our emergency approval of the vaccine ( we’ll sit back with front row seats, it’s not a race etc) and the dosing gap / possible mix and match ( WE will follow the manufacturer) but now both 180 degree flip.
Perhaps a message to learn generally is don’t comment negatively publicly on other countries when you don’t really understand what you are commenting on to avoid egg on face when you copy them.