Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

My DS is going to some godawful rave thing this weekend. He has to show the text about the test but also a photo of the test.

Thank you for the replies. I guess I’m trying to change my mental POV from ‘help, I’ll just avoid covid and never get it, if I can just wait until hers immunity I might escape’ to ‘I’m going to get it at some point, I’ll just be careful within the boundaries of having some kind of life’ . I do get confused as to whether other countries are having the same realisation or if I’m stuck in a country that has a different and relaxed approach compared to the rest of the world

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58357346

“Scotland has recorded a record number of daily Covid cases as the number surged above 6,000 for the first time.
A total of 6,835 new cases were reported on Friday - more than 1,800 above the previous highest figure.
This is the third time this week a new record has been set.”

SAGE report on schools in Sept, says govt should be preparing for exponential growth in education settings

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1013533/S1355_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

@JanglyBeads

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58357346

“Scotland has recorded a record number of daily Covid cases as the number surged above 6,000 for the first time.
A total of 6,835 new cases were reported on Friday - more than 1,800 above the previous highest figure.
This is the third time this week a new record has been set.”

But that can’t be right… they’re still wearing masks…

[quote JanglyBeads]SAGE report on schools in Sept, says govt should be preparing for exponential growth in education settings

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1013533/S1355_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf[/quote]
Glad I didn’t sign up for supply, then.

Gosh, that is quite starkly written...

govt should be preparing for exponential growth in education settings

The government has said there would exponential growth in all settings, everywhere in the country after removing the restrictions, and have repeatedly been reporting it happening, and noticing it in the cases.

What's the news here?

Can someone explain something in the SAGE paper - I’ve never seen R modelled on a day by day basis, am surprised it can be done like that? Or am I misreading?

And what about the “preparing for” part, sirfred??

Perhaps the news is "actually schools didn't spread it much before because there's little acquired immunity in the population", I guess that would be a surprise to many.

today's spec date graphic for England; plus cases by region for this week (from Monday) as reported so far; and the equivalent figures reported this time last week. Almost 4,000 fewer cases so far in the South West; and around 1650 fewer in the South East.

Glad I didn’t sign up for supply, then.

Exactly what I do 😩

What's the news here?

That after a year of claiming that schools are safe, transmission in schools doesn’t happen, schools are not drivers of infection, children don’t get ill, none of this is actually true, and many people have been lulled into a false sense of security believing that their children, their wider families and school staff and their families, will not be detrimentally affected by the policy of reopening schools as though the pandemic more or less vanished over the summer and will be mitigated by lots of testing (with no effective reporting, contact tracing or isolation).
This might come as news to those who thought everything was under control.

Does that report include the fact that children from positive households will be in school?

@MrsMayFly

Glad I didn’t sign up for supply, then.

Exactly what I do 😩

Sorry. Actually, my kids have read me the riot act and told me to stay away…

So they assume 40-70% of kids have already had covid?

Yes @Regulus. One graph shows projected rates in primary and secondary households.

Surely, the only person anywhere near govt who’s used the term “exponential” is Neil Ferguson back in June /July? On SAGE but somewhat discredited in the eyes of the public.
CMO and CSO May have implied it, quietly.

Some parts of SW become Enhanced Response Areas:

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/secondary-school-isles-of-scilly-south-west-plymouth-devon-b952737.html?fbclid=IwAR1R0K5g3BFa_lIEoWWPJRZjEPnRWxInTmOuMf76MXIEQSqYleo2tpY2g70

Unfortunately I think that acquired immunity in most Scottish schools is lower than 40-70%. But give it a few weeks... At least all the kids will get it, while their parents vaccines are still effective

@sirfredfredgeorge

Perhaps the news is "actually schools didn't spread it much before because there's little acquired immunity in the population", I guess that would be a surprise to many.

Yes, quite. Also the understanding that everyone will now get it, perhaps isn't fully here yet. Delta is much more transmissible, especially at lower ages. When it comes, it won't be 3 cases in a class, it will be all the kids. Vaccines will help the parents. This is going to be a bumpy winter.

All the kids off at once would be less disruptive though...

@L1ttleSeahorse

All the kids off at once would be less disruptive though...

Not so good if all the staff were off at once.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Perhaps the news is "actually schools didn't spread it much before because there's little acquired immunity in the population", I guess that would be a surprise to many.

Immunity is thought to wane.

Not sure what point you are making here, and on what basis?

Schools appear to have been a significant source of transmission previously.

Now that almost everyone apart from school students have been vaccinated, and there are even fewer mitigations in schools, they are likely to be an even more major source of transmission. How could it possibly be otherwise?

• L1ttleSeahorse All the kids off at once would be less disruptive though... Not so good if all the staff were off at once.*

If all the children are off, the teachers might as well be too!