Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The seven day average uses a lag, in case of incomplete reporting, but the daily data goes up to 24th. Click in any data tab and the figures or uptake percentages go to 24th. Come 4pm ish this afternoon it will include 25th Aug.

.

@Words have you NCd??

No Jangly sorry, just a lurker place marking.

Umm...

🤷🏻‍♀️

today's England spec date graphic

and week in progress cases regional figures. Cases with Mon-Wed spec dates this week as reported today, compared with exactly the same reporting point last wk.

BoardMasters a bit of a flash in the pan , although I don't believe they reformed to play there. Especially with the in needing to be an and . Given Corwall's limited infrastructure I could imagine that some could still be waiting for a train.

boys3 🚆😂

Latitude festival had 40,000 attendees with approx 1,000 positive cases. (1:40)
Yet Boardmasters had 65,000 attendees with an estimated 5,000 cases (1:13). That’s a heck of a ratio. Wonder why so high. Younger unvaccinated?
This weekend Reading is due to have 100,000 attendees and Leeds 75,000. So potentially thousands of new cases. Hopefully with a ratio more like Latitude than Boardmasters. If the latter we could be looking at 13,500 new cases.
They’re asking for proof of negative LF test/vaccine post 14 days etc. Did Boardmasters & Latitude do this? What are the reasons for Latitude’s positive cases to be so much lower than Boardmasters? Less Delta due to only recently lifted restrictions in the case of Latitude?

Boardmasters was part of the ERP so would have required testing /vax status checks.

When was Latitude?

Maybe there were a couple of super-spreaders at Boardmasters, that’s always the wild card isn’t it?

The Boarmasters organisers are very firm that they had all the procedures in place. Latitude is a more mature crowd so perhaps behaviours are a little different. I have never been into festivals, but I certainly get the impression that Reading is a teen rite of passage involving lots of - ahem- bodily contact. At Latitude, tent sharing was more likely with household members . I fear Reading and Leeds are more akin to Boardmasters. Hopefully, more whose vaccines have kicked in, although my DS caught covid out clubbing and he's jabbed.

@NotDonna

Latitude festival had 40,000 attendees with approx 1,000 positive cases. (1:40) Yet Boardmasters had 65,000 attendees with an estimated 5,000 cases (1:13). That’s a heck of a ratio. Wonder why so high. Younger unvaccinated? This weekend Reading is due to have 100,000 attendees and Leeds 75,000. So potentially thousands of new cases. Hopefully with a ratio more like Latitude than Boardmasters. If the latter we could be looking at 13,500 new cases. They’re asking for proof of negative LF test/vaccine post 14 days etc. Did Boardmasters & Latitude do this? What are the reasons for Latitude’s positive cases to be so much lower than Boardmasters? Less Delta due to only recently lifted restrictions in the case of Latitude?

There were a lot of comments on the boardmasters Facebook page about disgusting toilet facilities (worse than usual festival facilities). I wonder if this, in part, increased spread. For example, diarrhoea and vomiting are now symptoms of covid and traces of these, if not cleaned, could presumably spread disease, especially if combined with no hand washing or gel.

Can I ask, from a stat POV, now we know current vaccines don’t completelystop transmission and symptoms, is it inevitable and accepted that everyone will catch Covid during their lifetime and the aim is to stave off serious effects, not stop spread? Are all countries going to or currently following this thought process or are other places intending to limit long term spread more cautiously?

@reastie, short answers from a non specialist:
Yes
No.

Read somewhere that the number of tests performed increased by over 100,000 yesterday, but can’t really tell form the dashboard (on a phone): is this correct and why might that be, any idea?

I think the earliest any English in-school testing starts is Tuesday.

[quote JanglyBeads]@reastie, short answers from a non specialist:
Yes
No.

Read somewhere that the number of tests performed increased by over 100,000 yesterday, but can’t really tell form the dashboard (on a phone): is this correct and why might that be, any idea?

I think the earliest any English in-school testing starts is Tuesday.[/quote]
Lots of people testing (and recording) in advance of Bank holiday trips (either abroad or to visit family) and the upcoming festivals/theatre trips/sporting events that a bank holiday entails. It seems like half my company is off today for the long weekend.

[quote JanglyBeads]@reastie, short answers from a non specialist:
Yes
No.

Read somewhere that the number of tests performed increased by over 100,000 yesterday, but can’t really tell form the dashboard (on a phone): is this correct and why might that be, any idea?

I think the earliest any English in-school testing starts is Tuesday.[/quote]
There were testing shortages in Scotland the past few days which were resolved yesterday, apparently. So maybe a bit of catch up, from people who were waiting for tests?

Might explain why the cases in scotland have jumped to 6,835 today, with test positivity up too (14.2%).

Crikey re Scotland!

But lurker I wouldn’t have thought that those factors would make that much of a difference?

Interesting to ponder whether someone who does the odd lateral flow test is more likely to record it (because the instructions say you have to) than someone who does them regularly and reaches CBA stage

I think it would - just googled reading & Leeds had 105,000 attendance in 2019, so if even a reasonable proportion (say 20%) of those people tested before going that would account for a lot of people, plus the increased numbers travelling over bank holiday weekend (so private PCR tests etc.) plus all the concerts/theatres/comedy shows/sports events etc. that are politely requesting people test before attending, and usual larger gatherings with bank holidays, combined I don’t think it’s too much of a leap to suggest it’s bank holiday related. I think that if people have “expensive plans” they’re more likely to record a negative result, just in case there are any issues - we went to a few large sporting events recently and triple checked testing requirements to make sure we didn’t have an expensive mistake!

NI schools are also back so that will have an impact on test numbers, but population is low, so not sure how many that would include.

Ok maybe then @lurker101

I thought you were discussing huge increase in PCR testing not LFTs. Reading & Leeds add up to 175,000 attendees (100 Reading & 75 Leeds) - if they’re not 14 days post double vaxxed then they need a negative LFT test from the NHS app/text in order to be admitted.

I thought the increase I saw quoted was a combined figure, not sure though.

"they need a negative LFT test from the NHS app/text in order to be admitted."

But - when you do a LFT you self-report it to the app, then they send a text back telling you that you are negative. Which of course you know, as you just did a test.
Is it going to be very difficult to lie here?

Well spotted Endo....

Very easy to lie.
The discussion above was about the increase in number of tests in general. I’m agreeing with lurker as to possible reasons. Regardless of whether attendees are lying or not they are uploading negative tests to the nhs app. A possible 175 thousand festival attendees. Those that arrived early on Wednesday or Thursday to camp will have to do a second test whilst there. That’s a fair amount of LFTs in just a few days.