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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 04/08/2021 22:48

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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Thread gallery
287
turnshavetabled · 25/08/2021 16:56

@NannyAndJohn Scotland lifted all restrictions right before schools went back so have a double whammy!

MRex · 25/08/2021 17:07

@NannyAndJohn

I've just come across these hospitalisation projections from June.

Look pretty accurate so far.

Shows the need for restrictions in the Winter.

That was based on delaying release of restrictions until September: mobile.twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1401806768519405569?lang=en. If you don't understand what the models actually represent, it's really better not to fret about them. Certainly if you don't understand them it's better not to try to worry others with them.
boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:24

today's spec date graphic for England. This Monday still a little lower than equivalent last week. To follow by region cases numbers for Monday and Tuesday as reported so far this week as compared with the same point last week. All bar North East (slightly up) are flat (eg slight fall) or falling (eg South East and South West in particular)

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:25

regional figs

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:26

again for England position for hospital admissions

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:26

number in hospital

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:27

deaths within 28 days

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:28

cases

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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Puzzledandpissedoff · 25/08/2021 17:32

Placemarking again for the excellent info - for some reason it seems to have slipped off my "active" list

boys3 · 25/08/2021 17:38

just to add the most recent day's data for deaths will not be fully complete, so the last few days shown are likely to increase further ( I would expect not hugely )

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sirfredfredgeorge · 25/08/2021 18:12

why the huge spike in Jan / Feb and not before? Will get cold long before that!

I believe most of the models assuming jan/feb is because that is when almost all influenza like illnesses peak in this country, and the assumption is that covid will have similar transmission advantages in these conditions.

Only Rhinovirus (which peaks in September normally) doesn't follow the pattern, I'm not sure why there's any particular reason to believe covid would follow this after a peak in the previous summer, but as a worst case model, it's reasonable I think.

NannyAndJohn · 25/08/2021 18:16

Then just move the spike forwards a couple of months, @MRex.

Bordois · 25/08/2021 18:20

Um... that's really not how it works 😕

MRex · 25/08/2021 18:42

@NannyAndJohn

Then just move the spike forwards a couple of months, *@MRex*.
Hahahahaha. Just triple it! And make it next week... Er month... Er year... Just just just. You're quite bonkers.
mibbelucieachwell · 25/08/2021 19:32

NannyandJohn Hospital admissions due to covid will put less pressure on them than before the roll out of vaccines as patients are spending less time in hospital.

JanglyBeads · 25/08/2021 20:15

The text of the letter to CEV children received today, and similar letters in Wales:

Important information for you about COVID-19

We are writing to you because your child has previously been identified as clinically extremely vulnerable to COVID-19, meaning they were thought to be at high risk of serious illness if they caught the virus. They may have been advised to shield in the past.

As you know, shielding was paused on 1 April, and on 19 July people previously identified as clinically extremely vulnerable, including children and young people, were advised to follow the same guidance as the rest of the population. Recent clinical studies have shown that children and young people are at very low risk of serious illness if they catch the virus. We are pleased to let you know that your child is therefore no longer considered to be clinically extremely vulnerable and should continue to follow the same guidance as everyone else, which can be found at www.gov.uk/coronavirus. For a very few individual children specific clinical advice may be given, and this should continue to be followed.

You have received this letter as your child was under the age of 18 when it was processed. If your child has recently turned 18, please ignore this letter.

COVID-19 risk for children and young people

At the start of the pandemic, we knew very little about the threat posed by COVID-19 and made the difficult decision to advise several million people, including many children and young people, to shield to protect themselves. That was the right decision at the time and helped keep the most vulnerable safe while we learned more about COVID-19.

We have learnt a lot since the start of the pandemic, particularly around the impact of COVID-19 on specific groups. The results of the recent clinical studies were discussed by a panel of experts who recommended that children and young people should no longer be considered clinically extremely vulnerable and therefore should not be retained on the Shielded Patient List, the national database of people considered clinically extremely vulnerable. This recommendation was agreed to by the Chief Medical Officers of the UK.

It is important that your child continues to attend their school or other educational settings. A lack of schooling is known to have a significant negative impact on children, reducing their life chances and making physical and mental health issues worse. All early years providers, schools and colleges are continuing to put in place measures to help minimise the risk of spreading COVID-19. More information can be found at www.gov.uk/coronavirus/education-and-childcare

A very small number of children and young people will have been advised to isolate or reduce their social contact for short periods of time by their specialist, due to the nature of their medical condition or treatment rather than because of the pandemic. If this is the case for your child, they should continue to follow the advice of their specialist.

COVID-19 vaccination

Vaccination is now available for all 16-17 year olds. Some 12-15 year olds are also eligible for vaccination because of the very specific risks they face and the particular benefits they will receive from the vaccine. However, being eligible for vaccination does not mean that your child is considered to be clinically extremely vulnerable or needs to shield.

Accessing NHS services

It is important that your child continues to receive the care and support they need to stay safe and well. Providers of social care and medical services are making every effort to ensure services remain open and as safe as possible.

Your child should continue to seek support from the NHS for their existing health conditions. They can access a range of NHS services from home, including ordering repeat prescriptions or contacting their health professional through an online consultation. To find out more visit www.nhs.uk/health-at-home, or download the NHS App. If you are concerned about your child’s health, speak to their GP, hospital clinician or use NHS111 or, for a medical emergency, dial 999.

The pandemic and successive periods of lockdown and easing has increased stress and anxiety in some children and young people, and this can be a perfectly normal response. NHS experts have published blogs with practical tips for young people (www.england.nhs.uk/blog/what-to-do-if-youre-a-young-person-and-its-all-getting-too-much-2/) and families or carers (www.england.nhs.uk/blog/advice-for-parents-guardians-and-carers-on-how-to-support-a-child-or-young-person-if-youre-concerned-about-their-mental-health/) and signposting to further help such as the Every Mind Matters website (www.nhs.uk/every-mind-matters).NHS mental health services are working as usual and children and young people, their families and carers should ask for specialist help when needed. The NHS has online information on how to access mental health help and support (www.nhs.uk/mental-health/nhs-voluntary-charity-services/nhs-services/how-to-access-mental-health-services/).

We know that the pandemic has been a difficult time for everyone and recognise that it has been particularly hard for those who have been advised to take extra precautions. The decision to include your child as part of the clinically extremely vulnerable group was made to help keep them safe, based on the information that we had at the time. Now that we have more evidence, we hope that you will be pleased to know that your child is no longer considered to be clinically extremely vulnerable to COVID-19.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Jennifer Harries OBE
BSc MB ChB MPH MBA FFPH FCMI
Chief Executive Officer
UK Health Security Agency

boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:39

Series of tables showing cases per 100,000 for the past five weeks, with the last up to 22nd August (therefore a three day lag). Also shown is the actual cases as reported today for Monday and Tuesday so far and the equivalent number at this reporting point last week.

Sorted within region by highest latest week rate per 100,000. The very first column shows the rank for the latest case rate as compared with all English councils.

Overall England and median council rate per 100,000 for each week at the top of every table to give a broader context.

This is the South West As such Cornwall highest rate in England, but, no pun intended, the tide may be turning. 605 cases reported for Monday and Tuesday so far as compared with 713 equivalent last week. This is a common theme for the councils in the SW with the highest rate until 13th placed Plymouth is reached.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:40

Rest of the South West

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:41

West Midlands

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:44

Yorkshire and the Humber More LAs here with slightly more cases at the start of this week as compared with same point last week. But none with any significant increase.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:46

East of England Only 6 councils have a rate above the latest overall England rate.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:50

East Midlands As can be seen Lincoln has dropped significantly as compared with its rate a few weeks back, although still in highest 40 councils in England, and looks to have plateaued somewhat at the moment. Just 7 Councils with a current rate below the England median

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:55

London Inner Boroughs all continue to have falling rates, with 4 amongst the lowest 15 councils in England. Lewisham and Haringey showing a start of week increase, the latter by just 4 cases so I'd not read anything into that. The former a bit more : 128 to 151, but again nothing on a scale seen in the SW.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 20:57

London Outer Boroughs by contrast a lot a little up at the start of the week, often though not much more than a handful of cases difference. Only 1 on the latest full week had a rate above the median, but again not by much.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 25/08/2021 21:00

The North East Most a little up on the start of the week comparison. On the weekly rates though all quite removed from the shades of red in the first week shown.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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