Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

~800 of ~4700 Boardmasters cases were from Cornwall, and 470 got sent home or couldn't attend due to positive tests: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-58318695.
I'm not surprised, nor concerned (actually pleased for the teens and young adults that it went ahead); just providing the updated figures because it was under discussion.

Forgot the link above to covid zoe symptoms; rather different for vaccinated than non: covid.joinzoe.com/post/anosmia-loss-of-smell-best-covid-predictor

The trouble with using anosmia for a trigger for testing is that, reliable as it is as a symptom, it doesn't particularly seem to be an early one.

South West bit of a mixed bag

Again just looking at yesterday compared with the first day of reporting for last Monday.

Cornwall still not far off 1 in 5 cases in the region. 180 yesterday v 190. At least down.

Wiltshire biggest absolute fall 47 vs 75

Torbay 33 vs 57 last Monday

Bournemouth 30 vs 45

*Plymouth up a bit 97 vs 83

ditto Exeter 43 v 31

Sedgemoor down though 21 v 33

Bristol slight fall 63 v 67

Swindon down a bit 23 v 29. Swindon if of course almost as near to York as it is to Newquay.

I've been mulling over why they don't update the symptom list for test. I and everyone I know started with headache

But headache is such a non-specific symptom, I imagine a very high percentage of the pub football wave woke up with a headache the day after watching the matches in the pub, but only maybe 1% of them caught covid…

As well as not catching many more as @mrex says, it will also discourage testing - "oh I tested last week for a headache, not going to do it again for these snuffles" etc.

4323 cases reported in Scotland today. Of which, 34% are in the under 19s. 14.5% test positivity rate.

It used to be that they said the vast majority had additional symptoms, but over 90% had them accompanied by one of the key 3. The reasoning for not including non-specific symptoms like headache on their own way that it wouldn't bring in many additional cases. It may be that has changed with Delta; certainly there seems to be more vomiting and everyone I know who's had it while vaccinated had stuffy nose rather than loss of smell/ taste, while only unvaccinated / kids seem to still have the fever and cough. It would be useful to see analysis on the symptoms taken all together

DH is double vaxxed and has Covid now, he is coughing (and had low oxygen yesterday), he also has an amazing rash. But no loss of smell/taste interestingly

That may come... Kicked in for me about day 7 or 8. Day 11 for DS2.

ps hope he's coping OK.

Day 10 today

Email Bristol Council today covid infections rate gone up again to 408 per 100k past 7days with just over 1900 new infection past 7 days thats just Bristol City not south glos.
It was 397 few days ago.
74% adults had least 1 vaccine.

Looked at Scotland figures today is it all school.
Still a lot if deaths in double vaxxed hut don't know anything about ages or why they died.

@3asAbird see @Perihelion’s post above

@3asAbird - this is a useful graphic to explain.

Seen stuff on Fb saying absolutely all CEV children, including those previously advised to keep shielding have received letters from DHSC telling them to stop and return to school and normal life. Certainly in England and Wales?

Just over 5,000 new cases reported in Scotland today. Wednesday is usually the day with most reported cases, but since last Thursday numbers have mostly gone up instead of dipping on Sun, Monday and Tuesday. It Will be very interesting to see tomorrow's numbers.

If restrictions are reimposed and these slow down the spread of infections won't that just postpone another spike until the autumn? Or reduce cases numbers by a bit but mean highish numbers for longer?

Come on James Ward, let's have some medium term modelling for Scotland please.

Reports of difficulty in getting PCR tests in a couple of areas of Scotland. If testing infrastructure is a problem that might influence the Scottish Government. However compliance among young people might well be lower, especially now so many are vaxed and it's likely that very high numbers will result in voluntary modification of behaviour so the cost benefit ratio might be lower than previously?

The latest from Devi Sridhar:

I (personally) think, given vaccines, we need to move away from # of cases to disease severity (how ill are people who get COVID, how many end up in hospital, have they been fully vaccinated, how many experience 'Long Covid' & how long do symptoms last)

It is an interesting turn for someone who advocated for “zero Covid” not too long ago. It is encouraging to see scientists who are willing to change their views based on new evidence.

149 deaths 35847 infections today

@wintertravel1980

The latest from Devi Sridhar:

I (personally) think, given vaccines, we need to move away from # of cases to disease severity (how ill are people who get COVID, how many end up in hospital, have they been fully vaccinated, how many experience 'Long Covid' & how long do symptoms last)

It is an interesting turn for someone who advocated for “zero Covid” not too long ago. It is encouraging to see scientists who are willing to change their views based on new evidence.

Did Ms Sridhar really advocate Zero Covid long term though? My understanding was that she recommended keeping case levels as low as possible while we had no or little defence - now that vaccines have changed things our response to the virus needs to evolve.

Did Ms Sridhar really advocate Zero Covid long term though?

Yes - throughout whole summer of 2020. Internet remembers…

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2669

…leading to a continued push a “zero Covid” Scotland…
… working towards ending community transmission and local cases, and moving towards a future where the main risk of Covid-19 is from imported cases…

My understanding was that she recommended keeping case levels as low as possible while we had no or little defence - now that vaccines have changed things our response to the virus needs to evolve.

This is suppression rather than elimination/zero Covid and yes, this is her new point of advocacy (that I personally agree with). But the starting point was zero Covid.

And here is a more recent letter signed by Devi Sridhar - “Aiming for zero COVID-19: Europe needs to take action”.

www.bruegel.org/2021/02/aiming-for-zero-covid-19-europe-needs-to-take-action/

At least, we are no longer expected to “commit to eliminating COVID-19…” With Delta it is clearly not happening and it is encouraging to see some scientists can change their views (even when they are not willing to acknowledge that they have actually done it).

I've just come across these hospitalisation projections from June.

Look pretty accurate so far.

Shows the need for restrictions in the Winter.

Oh, and Scotland's current doubling time is 6.1 days.

A sign of things to come for England when schools go back?

It is one of the “worst case scenarios” modelled by James Ward on twitter. His baseline case is much more optimistic (and equally accurate).

He is supposed to update his model over next few days so we can all see what the output will be.

@NannyAndJohn

I've just come across these hospitalisation projections from June.

Look pretty accurate so far.

Shows the need for restrictions in the Winter.

Better than some of the other stuff you've posted that you were equally adamant proved we were heading for restrictions...

@NannyAndJohn why the huge spike in Jan / Feb and not before? Will get cold long before that!