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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 04/08/2021 22:48

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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Thread gallery
287
Wakeupin2022 · 23/08/2021 17:57

@NannyAndJohn

Yesterday was the highest ever number of cases on a Sunday for Scotland.

Not looking good.

Looking at the map, the areas being hit now are areas that have not had particularly high cases previously.

I definitely know less people or recently had Covid now that I did in the Euros wave. Actually the only ones I do know of, live in one of the purple areas.

I think there will be peaks and troughs as it works through areas.

My kids English school and the city as a whole has been relatively spared from the worst of Covid spreading through the schools. I suspect we will have it spreading through the schools when they go back.

Quartz2208 · 23/08/2021 17:58

@NannyAndJohn

Yesterday was the highest ever number of cases on a Sunday for Scotland.

Not looking good.

It depends I think on how you look at it.

There are very little if any restrictions in place at the moment - there is a theatre thread talking about needing vaccination proof/LFT and mask wearing that has tailed off. I went on a Isle of Wight ferry today after going on it last week - last week masks were mentioned and around 50% uptake this week nothing - no mention around 10% uptake

Places are packed - half the time the only reason you know is we are in a pandemic is that they are so packed (normally lots of travel abroad). Football stadium are packed, festivals are going on.

The fact we are not on more cases I think is a positive sign - places are undulating, the NHS is holding fairly steady, a month in nothing has fallen apart.

Winter though is going to be tough because of the Flu and other viruses as much as COVID

Stilltalkstotrees · 23/08/2021 18:14

As you mentioned though @Quartz2208 - a lot has changed in a week and it is too soon to see the effect of that change. I do think the UK (England mainly) is behaving bizarrely. Day by day people are returning to normal, they seem to forget we're still in a pandemic situation. I really don't want to catch it - it would be incredibly inconvenient just at the moment. So I am staying away from crowded spaces.

Quartz2208 · 23/08/2021 18:24

I think its being fairly steadily happening over the last month really in AUgust. I think after the 19th July there were two weeks when people followed but since then it really is like there just isnt COVID anymore.

And we have been to various places since then and its all fairly consistent.

The premier league though is a week isnt it?

wintertravel1980 · 23/08/2021 18:27

I am not sure people have forgotten they are in the pandemic. Perhaps, we are moving closer to endemicity with people more willing to take their chances (especially when they are vaccinated):

From the twitter account of Francois Balloux:

I have some revelations to make.

Essentially everyone is expected to catch #COVID19, multiple times during their life. As such, the relevant question is not if people will get exposed to the virus but when they catch it for the first time.

That was the bad news.

The good news is that each successive infection is expected to cause milder symptoms on average.

The even better piece of news for people in rich countries is that morbidity / mortality associated to #COVID19 is dramatically reduced by vaccines.

boys3 · 23/08/2021 18:39

today's England spec date graphic

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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MRex · 23/08/2021 18:55

@wintertravel1980

I am not sure people have forgotten they are in the pandemic. Perhaps, we are moving closer to endemicity with people more willing to take their chances (especially when they are vaccinated):

From the twitter account of Francois Balloux:

I have some revelations to make.

Essentially everyone is expected to catch #COVID19, multiple times during their life. As such, the relevant question is not if people will get exposed to the virus but when they catch it for the first time.

That was the bad news.

The good news is that each successive infection is expected to cause milder symptoms on average.

The even better piece of news for people in rich countries is that morbidity / mortality associated to #COVID19 is dramatically reduced by vaccines.

I buy into this. We're double jabbed, have to be exposed through DS in winter, so we're just moving back to normal as far as possible. Covent garden was weirdly full of Londoners rather than tourists today (delightful actually to chat to so many instead of the usual tourist vibe), and looks like everyone there reached that conclusion. Masks on most faces wherever a sign explicitly requests it, not otherwise and very few staff anywhere in masks.
sirfredfredgeorge · 23/08/2021 19:02

Winter though is going to be tough because of the Flu and other viruses as much as COVID

Then on an individual level it's almost certainly better if you catch covid now, at your seasonal peak of fitness (just from the impact of the heat and being outdoors more and vitamin D levels) than in winter.

And from a population level, it's better if we can get the highest levels of immunity now.

Of course winter is going to be very rough, as covid has really brought home how woefully under resourced the NHS is, and with less immunity in the population from flu.

Wakeupin2022 · 23/08/2021 19:04

I must admit my opinion is changing re masks!

I do wear one indoors but I can see fewer and fewer people doing it. And it's not worrying me at all!

My main risk for catching Covid is my children who are both under 12. I cannot reduce that risk and quite frankly I am not prepared too. I want their lives to be as normal as possible now as they have given up so much. They need to be my priority.

I may change, depending on how things go in the winter, but at the moment I am pretty OK with it all.

boys3 · 23/08/2021 19:05

regional movement graph

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 23/08/2021 19:08

7 day average and daily cases in England.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 23/08/2021 19:10

Hospital admissions in England, following a relatively shallow upward path.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 23/08/2021 19:11

Number in hospital , England, again upward

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 23/08/2021 19:13

and sadly deaths within 28 days, again just for England.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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wintertravel1980 · 23/08/2021 19:36

Thanks, boys3, great graphs.

TheSunIsStillShining · 23/08/2021 21:37

What I don't understand is that if we subscribe to having to live with covid why aren't we prepared to do a minimum effort on being safeR?
This is a pet peeve of mine: as an example... in the UK having lice is normalized. In Hungary every year if there is even 1 lice case, all kids get a thorough look through by a nurse (resident or coming for this), everyone who has lice is sent home with prescription shampoo and can only come back "checked and clean". Because it is not normal to have lice. And apart from certain regions most schools don't have lice cases for years. And if there is capacity the local nurse will go to mostly primaries and kindergarden to check for lice randomly. Increasingly less capacity unfortunately, but 10 years ago with DS in nursery they had the nurse every 3 months to check a series of things incl. lice.
Same goes for norovirus.

So ok, let's live with it, but also have the decency to wear a fekking mask when you have some ailment??

And until it's truly endemic wear that effing thing full time, especially those who can't get vaccinated and in enclosed spaces -- schools.

MRex · 23/08/2021 21:44

having lice is normalized
WTF? Urgh. No it really isn't, any cases get informed to all parents, who do checks and get rid of them. There would be no need for nurse checks in Hungary if you didn't have just as many lice cases, it's just a different approach.

cantkeepawayforever · 23/08/2021 22:01

@MRex

having lice is normalized WTF? Urgh. No it really isn't, any cases get informed to all parents, who do checks and get rid of them. There would be no need for nurse checks in Hungary if you didn't have just as many lice cases, it's just a different approach.
In primary schools, even very nice ones, having lice is normal. Yes, he Letter of Doom comes out now and again, and some parents do check, but they are routinely spread around and it is not routine for parents to truly try to eradicate them as they know that a week or two later they'll be back.
Wakeupin2022 · 23/08/2021 22:09

I would recommend the nitty gritty comb! That and loads of conditioner sort the buggers out!

The last time eldest has nits I had discovered them one day and given a real good comb only for her to need an emergency op the next day. I was mortified. When I redid her hair a couple of days later only found one so must have done a pretty good job. Now that was fun as she has a massive cast / padded sling on her arm which she refused to remove.

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/08/2021 22:11

aren't we prepared to do a minimum effort on being safeR?

Surely the problem is preventing spread does not make things safer, being healthier makes it safer, covid sadly is a disease of the vulnerable, even more so than other respiratory viruses (which are often risky in the young as well) You reduce risk by getting antibodies, our vaccines aren't good enough at preventing cases, but they're good at helpiung but we'll still need to catch it. Just like we do other "common cold" viruses.

So I can't accept "safer" is undoubtedly preventing spread as you suggest. It was when so many were at high risk, now I'm not so convinced.

That's not to say your wear a mask argument is wrong, but it certainly needs to be looked at beyond delaying covid infection - if delaying covid infection is even useful - as you need to measure other impacts, will it also prevent routine boosting exposure to other respiratory viruses simply offsetting the delay in getting covid by making them worse etc.

I also agree that having lice is not normalised although I do think the cost of prevention shouldn't be that high, they're little more than an annoyance.

(I always wear a mask indoors outside the home, not because I think it's effective in preventing me from catching it, or because I think it's effective in preventing spread, but simply because I know some people are worried about un-masked people, and I want to ensure they don't lock themselves away.)

Personally, I'd really like to catch covid while I'm healthy, and am wondering where I can find a pox party. (Although given me and the rest of my household have taken no particular precautions at all, it's possible that we all had it without symptoms at some point.)

boys3 · 23/08/2021 22:13

the great lice eradication debate, could of course be a thread in itself. :) I'm personally in the it can be camp.

However back to Covid.

These are age band graphs comparing regions - so same age band on each graph set, and to limit the line confusion three graphs on each, meaning

Top Left - East Midlands, East of England, London

Bottom Left - North East, North West, South East

Bottom Right - South West, West Mids, Yorks & Humber

All based on rolling rate per 100,000.

y-axis have tried to keep the base constant for each age band, but the upper scales may vary. Especially when we get to the 15-19s in the South West.

Just to say some of these really are all over the place.

Going full circle back to initial lice first set is for the 0-4s.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 23/08/2021 22:14

5-9s

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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boys3 · 23/08/2021 22:15

10-14s

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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Piggywaspushed · 23/08/2021 22:15

I caught it while healthy... not awfully terribly nice tbh. No idea why it hit me so hard.

I remember the Nit Nurse! Nitty Nora we called her...

boys3 · 23/08/2021 22:18

15-19s This is where the axis scale gets a bit out on control - anti-clockwise from top left 1000, 1200 and then 2300!!

Both North East and North West no recent upward curve

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
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