Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I don't think the messaging is clear enough though and the overall aim remains a mystery

I'm not sure the aim is a mystery. The government are hinting that boosters will only be given to the extremely vulnerable and they are allowing/ encouraging people to attend events that clearly cause spread.

BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098

Results of the government's mass event test scheme are in pre print. Link in the news article below to the paper, but I can't seem to attach.

It concludes:

"EURO2020 tournament and England’s progress to the EURO final generated a significant risk to public health across the UK even when England played overseas. This risk arose not just from individuals attending the event itself, but included activities undertaken during travel and associated social activities."

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/20/9000-covid-cases-linked-to-euro-2020-games-in-mass-events-scheme

[quote lonelyplanet]Results of the government's mass event test scheme are in pre print. Link in the news article below to the paper, but I can't seem to attach.

It concludes:

"EURO2020 tournament and England’s progress to the EURO final generated a significant risk to public health across the UK even when England played overseas. This risk arose not just from individuals attending the event itself, but included activities undertaken during travel and associated social activities."

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/20/9000-covid-cases-linked-to-euro-2020-games-in-mass-events-scheme[/quote]
That can’t be a surprise surely.

Yet haven’t they removed the requirement for masks and bubbles in schools where there’s travel, activities and large gatherings where most are unvaccinated

There are no vaccines for school children under 16 unless CEV, no vaccines approved anywhere for under 12 and there is no potential for herd immunity. I don't actually have a clue what plan there can be; surely the "choice" is all children living their lives normally in until they catch covid or all children living with intolerable restrictions until teenage years, most of them catching covid anyway. Take your average 4 year old starting Reception this year; what long term plan do people perceive is actually going to work for that kid to not catch covid and live a normal enough life to develop the social skills they need?

Original Wuhan variant hardly touched kids, Alpha affected lots of older teens, Delta had increased infections for primary schools... at each stage the disease has been more virulent, not less. I would personally argue for child vaccines; low dose of Pfizer/ AZ, or sniffable original Wuhan variant if nothing safer can be found. But if MHRA/ JCVI do not agree that it is best to vaccinate children, are children better getting infected before the variant turns up that makes young children very unwell? I'm not suggesting pox parties, because heavy exposure could be very dangerous, but once everyone has had a chance to be double jabbed (September for youngest second doses), trying to actively avoid exposure risk for children seems fairly pointless to me. I'd be interested to hear any theory that gives some other end result.

All CEV children are not being offered vaccine; the categories are very limited.

The plan is very different to, say, the US and Israel, who seem to be moving in the direction of vaccinating all school children eventually. There isn't approval yet, but there are certainly studies looking at under 12s.

My suspicion is that the plan is rather sketchy, with everyone very thankful of course that children are relatively unaffected, especially the very little ones.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more categories of CEV/ CV children offered vaccine.

@MRex

There are no vaccines for school children under 16 unless CEV, no vaccines approved anywhere for under 12 and there is no potential for herd immunity. I don't actually have a clue what plan there can be; surely the "choice" is all children living their lives normally in until they catch covid or all children living with intolerable restrictions until teenage years, most of them catching covid anyway. Take your average 4 year old starting Reception this year; what long term plan do people perceive is actually going to work for that kid to not catch covid and live a normal enough life to develop the social skills they need?

To be honest I don't think there is a plan, I was being flippant. I think there are different choices that some countries are making. Personally I would like to see vaccines for over 12s, masks in indoor public spaces and a pause to mass events/ clubs until cases drop much lower. You are right, children need normality; I suspect they won't get it next term with the current guidelines for schools.

I think there are different choices that some countries are making

Outside of China, which I'm less conifdent of, I can't actually see any country doing anything other than "vaccinate as many as possible", then let it spread. Obviously countries like Aus/NZ aren't at the let it spread stage, but they have said that's the policy.

The vaccinating children etc. seems like less of a public health measure, and more of a vaccination promotion / public reassurance measure, the benefits are really,really low with the vaccine not being neutralizing enough to provide herd immunity.

@lonelyplanet

To be honest I don't think there is a plan, I was being flippant. I think there are different choices that some countries are making. Personally I would like to see vaccines for over 12s, masks in indoor public spaces and a pause to mass events/ clubs until cases drop much lower. You are right, children need normality; I suspect they won't get it next term with the current guidelines for schools.

I just don't get the point of continuing suppress the virus like this. The measures you suggest are unlikely, by themselves, to cause a significant drop in numbers unless population immunity was sufficient for this to happen naturally. Even if they were, as soon as you open up again, numbers would likely rise within a few weeks again and you'd be back to square one. It would be more restrictions for no real gain, just kicking the can down the road...

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think there are different choices that some countries are making

Outside of China, which I'm less conifdent of, I can't actually see any country doing anything other than "vaccinate as many as possible", then let it spread. Obviously countries like Aus/NZ aren't at the let it spread stage, but they have said that's the policy.

The vaccinating children etc. seems like less of a public health measure, and more of a vaccination promotion / public reassurance measure, the benefits are really,really low with the vaccine not being neutralizing enough to provide herd immunity.

Even China will have to face up to reality at some point... The only alternative is to try and seal themselves off as the rest of the world gets on with life, and they won't want that. It hardly fits with their ambitions.

If the U.K. and other western countries are "comfortable" enough with a certain degree of death and disease once vaccination programme are complete, I can't see why China wouldn't...

Yes, I agree most countries seem to follow the same strategy irrespective of official messaging.

I guess the nuance is that each country is also assessing its healthcare capacity and trying to "manage the spread" by keeping some of NPIs (e.g. restricting mass events like Netherlands).

Lots of countries are offering vaccines to 12 to 15 year olds. This list is from Reuters:

• Denmark will administer vaccines for children aged 12-15
• France has started vaccinating those from 12 years upwards, provided they have parental consent
• Austria aims to have over 340,000 children aged 12-15 vaccinated by the end of August,
• Italy on May 31 approved extending the use of Pfizer's vaccine to 12-15 year olds.
• Lithuania's prime minister said the country could start vaccinating children from age 12 in June
• Spain plans to start vaccinating children between 12 and 17 years old around two weeks before the academic year starts in September,
• Switzerland approved on June 4 vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds with Pfizer's shot, ahead of the country's plan to start inoculating younger people starting as early as July.
• San Marino has opened vaccinations for children aged 12-15
• Israel is urging vaccination for all children aged 12-15, after eligibility was extended to this age group in May.
• Dubai has started offering the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to 12 to 15-year-olds, after the United Arab Emirates approved the shot for emergency use for the same age group in mid-May.
• Indonesia on June 28 recommended China's Sinovac vaccine for children aged 12-17
• China on June 5 approved emergency use of Sinovac's vaccine for those between three and 17.
• Hong Kong said on June 3 it would open its vaccine scheme to children over the age of 12.
• Singapore opened up its vaccination programme to adolescents aged 12-18 from June 1.
• Japan on May 28 approved the use of Pfizer's vaccine for those aged 12 and above.
• Mexico on June 24 approved Pfizer's vaccine for use in children aged 12 and older.
• Brazil on June 11 approved use of Pfizer's vaccine for children over 12.
• Chile has approved use of Pfizer's vaccine for 12 to 16-year-olds.
• U.S. states began inoculating young adolescents in mid-May.
• Canada in early May approved use of Pfizer's vaccine for use in children aged 12-15

Lots of countries are offering vaccines to 12 to 15 year olds

Yes, but none that I know of other than China are locking down to prevent infection until those age groups are vaccinated, hence I cannot accept that vaccination of those age groups is because they need to be vaccinated before these governments accept transmission.

Does anyone have details of what much of Eastern Europe are doing? They mostly look to have relatively low vaccination, relatively low cases and few restrictions, is this because they've given up testing, or somehow no delta has got to them yet or have they already gone through the delta wave?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Lots of countries are offering vaccines to 12 to 15 year olds

Yes, but none that I know of other than China are locking down to prevent infection until those age groups are vaccinated, hence I cannot accept that vaccination of those age groups is because they need to be vaccinated before these governments accept transmission.

I haven't suggested we should be locking down, just being cautious with mass events.

I haven't suggested we should be locking down, just being cautious with mass events

I realise that, I wasn't suggesting you were, or indeed anyone, but this goes back to Mrex's point to actively avoid exposure risk for children seems fairly pointless to me which is that none of the countries, even those who are offering the vaccine to under 18's are putting any meaningful restrictions in to stop spread.

I think the stopping mass events simply doesn't do enough to make it worthwhile, simply delaying the infections, which is no longer a useful goal so long as healthcare capacity is good, which may even mean accelerating infection to avoid peaks of healthcare demand.

England's numbers are pretty much flat week on week (26,982 cases reported today vs 26,700 a week ago). The Boardmasters effect must be wearing off.

today England spec date graphic. Day -3 and -4 (Wednesday and Tuesday up); most recent two days slightly down.

sirfredfredgeorge
"I don't really see how the ambulance service itself would be impacted simply by extra covid numbers - even if all the covid admissions were ambulanced in?

Is there some other reason for ambulance crew shortage,"

I think part of the issue is staff being off due to burnout from previous waves and many taking overdue annual leave.

Regional movement ; three day lag; table with the rate per 100,000 for each; then one graphic showing the move in percentage terms and the other is absolute rate change. South West the clear, and hardly surprising, outlier.

from www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/08/20210812-Statistical-Note-AQI.pdf

July 2021 was the first month where the Ambulance Services of England answered over a million calls. In fact, it was also the first month that they answered more than 900,000 calls. Response times continued to increase in tandem with call volume, and none of the standards in the NHS Constitution1 were met

South West - graphic showing current 7 day rate and movement compared to the prior 7 days. The table then shows the data including the previous seven day rate, and where the current rate ranks each in England overall. Sorted by biggest week on week increase. Again based on a three day lag.

and why the BoardMasters effects possibly isn't wearing off yet for the South West. This is the same movement graphic but using a two day lag and showing it side by side with the 3 day. Plus the data table showing for each SW council the rate per 100,000 using a 3 day and 2 day lag, highlighting all those where the latter is higher.

and plotting the region graphic based on the 2 day lag; y and x axes scales both need to be increased

Thanks @boys3, so it is busier, but it's not covid busy (covid admissions aren't high enough to make much of a dent in a million a month.)

So is it extra demand due to delayed illness? (seem unlikely we're still low on deaths)
Extra demand due to lack of GP access?
Extra demand due to riskier behaviour/out of practice when doing various activities?