Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@wintertravel1980

Almost 40000 today, things are starting to look really bad.

Actually they are not.

What we are seeing In Scotland and Wales is the impact of the "re-opening" wave (pubs/nightlife/large gatherings). Both nations are lagging England.

England is 3% up on prior Friday and the bulk of the increase is driven by SW/SE (Boardmasters spread). The areas that were hit hard previously are either flat or down.

My primary concern in relation to England is the increase in cases in 60s+ which drives up hospitalisation rates. I am hoping JCVI will decide on boosters sooner rather than later. I have so far supported all their decisions but I am not sure I understand their hesitation - the case for boosters appears quite compelling based on the data. Even a small boost in protection will relieve pressure on the healthcare system (as we know, a small percentage of a big number is still a big number).

Well that means that 40000 is our new "floor" as opposed to 30000. This time last year, cases were ~100 times lower than they are now.

I would say it’s actually not that bad. I’m on holiday at the moment on the IOW and I would say most have given up now on masks and restrictions from what I have seen. There has been a gradual decline since the 19th in mask wearing which has turned into a rapid one over the past week

I would be very interested to see contacts now as I think that has massively increased over August for a lot of people. The fact England now with no restrictions is looking at a small rise to fairly flat is a positive

the case for boosters appears quite compelling based on the data

Do we have data on hospitalisations from covid in vaccinated older groups? As opposed to with covid etc. ?

@NannyAndJohn there were far more restrictions in play last August and a lot of things weren’t allowed that are now. The two just aren’t comparable

Anecdotally, my son and several of his friends went to Boardmasters - one was performing and they are all double vaccinated 23-ish year olds, so above the typical age for the festival. One of their group so far has tested positive. DS has had a negative PCR today and has had repeated negative LFTs. He did the PCR despite the LFTs as he was so worried by all the Twitter stuff.

I think it should be up to adding household members by now, it was 11-15 Sept

After 11 months you'd've thought it would've managed further than just household.

@wintertravel1980

Almost 40000 today, things are starting to look really bad.

Actually they are not.

What we are seeing In Scotland and Wales is the impact of the "re-opening" wave (pubs/nightlife/large gatherings). Both nations are lagging England.

England is 3% up on prior Friday and the bulk of the increase is driven by SW/SE (Boardmasters spread). The areas that were hit hard previously are either flat or down.

My primary concern in relation to England is the increase in cases in 60s+ which drives up hospitalisation rates. I am hoping JCVI will decide on boosters sooner rather than later. I have so far supported all their decisions but I am not sure I understand their hesitation - the case for boosters appears quite compelling based on the data. Even a small boost in protection will relieve pressure on the healthcare system (as we know, a small percentage of a big number is still a big number).

Do they think the increase in cases in the over 60s is due to immunity waning then?

[quote Quartz2208]@NannyAndJohn there were far more restrictions in play last August and a lot of things weren’t allowed that are now. The two just aren’t comparable[/quote]
I think it's become increasingly clear that we never should have got rid of the restrictions in the first place.

We could be going into autumn with less than 1000 cases a day and precautions in place for when schools open, instead it'll be 50000+ a day with Covid free to rip.

Well that means that 40000 is our new "floor" as opposed to 30000. This time last year, cases were ~100 times lower than they are now

That’s really not how it works though. And anyway it’s irrelevant- what matters is health systems capacity , which is ok atm.

What happened to the confident prediction of 100,000 a day by June, or was it July, or was it August? We're now only onto "50,000 by the time the schools go back".

How could we be 1000 cases a day though without incredibly strict restrictions that would cause more harm

@Quartz2208

How could we be 1000 cases a day though without incredibly strict restrictions that would cause more harm

Nanny loves strict restrictions. The more strict ones you can think (not leaving the house for a year , only for shopping essentials once a week I.e). That way we could have a couple of cases a day

Seems like sw is seeing a big spike because of the festival as well as sedgemoor area. However , Bristol the biggest city in that area is currently decreasing finally in cases. And the hospitales are 1/6 for what they were back in winter

@Bizawit

Well that means that 40000 is our new "floor" as opposed to 30000. This time last year, cases were ~100 times lower than they are now

That’s really not how it works though. And anyway it’s irrelevant- what matters is health systems capacity , which is ok atm.

I don’t know if there is NHS capacity. I know my local gp practice is run off their feet. Then many hospitals have a backlog of people who should have been treated earlier as they were busy with covid last year. There might not be the huge numbers in hospital with covid that there were in the first wave but that doesn’t mean we are back to pre covid status.

I don’t know if there is NHS capacity. I know my local gp practice is run off their feet

I guess GPS are back to seeing people in person more? Both DS & I have seen GP in the last week or so. No virtual consultation 1st. A lot of people have probably stored things up though! I know I mentioned 2 things. One of those I put of making an appt for months!

There are many things we have learnt since last summer. One of them is that the starting point (1,000 or 50,000 cases a day) matters much less than the rate of growth. Scotland's 1,000 of daily cases turned into 3,000+ over a week. I would argue waiting until August 9th to "re-open" was not a very smart move.

England is currently growing at 4% per week. This gives us a double time of 17 weeks, nearly 4 months. It is not really a cause for concern.

There is a risk that 4% per week may go up but we have not yet seen any of the earlier hotspots returning to rapid growth. All the areas rising currently (e.g. South West) were previously spared from Delta or Covid generally.

Do they think the increase in cases in the over 60s is due to immunity waning then?

It is one of the possibilities, especially for people who got Pfizer in December-January with the 3 weeks gap.

I am hoping JCVI has got more data than we do.

@wintertravel1980

Do they think the increase in cases in the over 60s is due to immunity waning then?

It is one of the possibilities, especially for people who got Pfizer in December-January with the 3 weeks gap.

I am hoping JCVI has got more data than we do.

This study suggested some immunity waning, and that dose interval may not be relevant. I've downloaded and been through it yet can't spot several items from its conclusions, including the one that dose interval doesn't matter nor how they've controlled for age and vulnerabilities. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-08-19-vaccines-still-effective-against-delta-variant-concern-says-oxford-led-study-covid

For boys3 - James Ward has explained how he is getting the latest case data by age groups:):

...there’s a trick to getting the more recent non-truncated data, which uses the femaleCases and maleCases metrics from the PHE dashboard, adds them together and subtracts the previous day’s results - but it only works down to regional level in England...

My dad is taking part in a booster study, he's been for regular blood tests and reported symptoms (none so far). Not sure when results start being reported, but would hope there would be something fairly soon.

@MemoryGame

My dad is taking part in a booster study, he's been for regular blood tests and reported symptoms (none so far). Not sure when results start being reported, but would hope there would be something fairly soon.

Thanks. Do you know if they are doing the same vaccine or a range of vaccines for boosters?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58281665
Four ambulance trusts in England receiving support from 97 (total) military personnel currently.

split of MSOAs by region above and below the overall MSOA median rate in the most recently reported week; which of course has a 5 day lag.

Good article @JanglyBeads the interesting bit for me is

“ Patients with conditions which might not have been reported earlier in the year are coming forward.
Added to that there is staff sickness and summer leave.
With COVID pressures to handle as well ambulance services are under great strain.”

@CaptainMerica

I think there is a subtle difference in Scotland to the England rules, where even double vaccinated contacts still need to isolate until they get a negative PCR. So I would have thought that would be enough to catch quite a high proportion of contacts? Maybe not.

I don't think the messaging is clear enough though and the overall aim remains a mystery. Many people have just heard that in the UK most don't need to test, don't have to isolate, cases don't matter so do what you like. I don't think people are paying attention any more.

Patients with conditions which might not have been reported earlier in the year are coming forward

I'm confused a bit with the narrative in these articles that this is a bad thing, they don't explicitly say these people are wasting the NHS's time by coming forward, so presumably they should be (ie people should have come forward before.)

COVID hospitalisations are still a tiny proportion compared to pre-pandemic normal load on the NHS, and whilst acute beds and the complexity in preventing transmission makes it disproportionate once in hospital, I don't really see how the ambulance service itself would be impacted simply by extra covid numbers - even if all the covid admissions were ambulanced in?

Is there some other reason for ambulance crew shortage, same as Nando's lack of chicken was being blamed on "pingdemic" in the media many times until they straight out said it was brexit?