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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 04/08/2021 22:48

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
287
InMySpareTime · 19/08/2021 21:22

The rise of hybrid working will have given a lot of companies the nudge they needed to relocate out of London. If employees are working mostly remotely then there's less need to have offices in the capital (with all the associated costs).
I'm glad Northern cities are picking up the slack on this, it was about time the Northern Powerhouse did something.
Hopefully govt funding for transport and infrastructure will keep up.

JanglyBeads · 19/08/2021 22:02

Unemployed in cities likely to have multiple other deprivation factors maybe?

CaptainMerica · 19/08/2021 23:11

@boys3

anyone now where *@jamesward* gets more up to date age breakdown for cases? The openly published age band data for cases on the dashboard still has a five day lag; is there a more up-to-date file somewhere else on the dashboard.
Travelling tabby's UK page has numbers per age band for the last day, week and to date. The source link on his chart goes to cumulative age band data on the dashboard.
borntobequiet · 20/08/2021 06:59

Unemployed in cities may have circumstances, personal issues or personality types that make them both less likely to be employed and to engage with healthcare services.

everythingthelighttouches · 20/08/2021 07:51

Lonelyplanet

“ Variant to watch is the AY.3 version of delta. It is most prevalent in the US but is increasing (still in very small numbers) here.”

All these sublineages of delta are just delta but with some markers of different origins. So AY.3 is not a variant at all.

Within a variant e.g. delta there are mutations which have no impact whatsoever on the virus protein structure, but they are useful for epidemiologists to follow where things are coming from and going to (e.g. I would expect someone at PHE is right now having a bloody good look at Broadmasters). These are the sublineages.

However, it is important to point out these sublineages are reflecting transmission already ongoing not reflecting any particular benefit of that sublineage or any transmission driven by that sublineage.

A number of well known and well respected academics came out yesterday to add this context to what Christina Pagel was saying, because she was leaving the impression there was cause for concern.

QueenStrombalinked to Andrew Rambaut’s thread on it on Twitter, which is excellent.

Like MRex, I am awaiting the PHE technical report today with interest. Not because of any delta AY.X sublineages (although that will be interesting), but because I want to see their update on B.1.621 originally from Columbia and present in Spain. This is “Beta-like” and I expect it to be promoted to VoC, although crossing fingers it is not able to outcompete delta.

lonelyplanet · 20/08/2021 08:47

I too am awaiting that report with interest. I don't think the B.1.621 is a worry at the moment as there have only been 14 cases in England in the last month.

Beakerandbungle · 20/08/2021 08:53

Sorry this is an anecdote but I know someone who works where one of the B.1.621 cases were discovered. It was taken extremely seriously by PHE have to say, including blood tests ( which intrigued me), wide spread requests to self isolate and PCR test and repeated PCR. Luckily no further cases were picked up in that location at least.

everythingthelighttouches · 20/08/2021 08:54

Yes, I agree cases low fo far, may come to nothing but one to watch.

It is well and truly seeded in Florida and seems to at least be holding ground against delta, rather than being outcompetes, however larger numbers are needed to know for sure.

there has been an issue logging it with GISAID internationally (resolved last week) so it is expected there is a backlog in it being recorded and underestimate. We’ll see later today I guess…

JanglyBeads · 20/08/2021 09:12

What could be the reason for blood tests I wonder?

QueenStromba · 20/08/2021 09:20

Probably looking for IgM antibodies which indicate very recent exposure as PCR tests aren't reliable enough to rule out infection.

JanglyBeads · 20/08/2021 12:18

Ah OK. So just a super quick COVID test? Which indicates they were very worried about it spreading??

QueenStromba · 20/08/2021 12:26

When I said very recent I meant in the last few weeks (rather than within months or years for IgG antibodies). But yeah, they'll have been wanting to make sure they haven't missed any cases so they can isolate their contacts. I don't understand how they were so lax with delta when they've been so thorough with this and beta.

JanglyBeads · 20/08/2021 16:24

I see R is up to around 0.8-1.1 or 0.9-1.2. Reported in The Sun and I can’t make a link!

JanglyBeads · 20/08/2021 17:07

Thanks. Interesting how BBC don’t report much in the “routine” stats.

boys3 · 20/08/2021 17:13

today's England spec date graphic. Whilst yesterday is down compared with the first day's numbers for the past two Thursdays; today 20% of reported cases had a spec date of yesterday; around the 24% mark both the previous two Friday report days.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 20/08/2021 17:14

@CaptainMerica thanks, I suspected that might be it as I could not see another openly published option

OP posts:
Bizawit · 20/08/2021 18:30

@boys3

today's England spec date graphic. Whilst yesterday is down compared with the first day's numbers for the past two Thursdays; today 20% of reported cases had a spec date of yesterday; around the 24% mark both the previous two Friday report days.
This has been a developing pattern. Is it that they are getting slower at recording cases in the daily report figures?
NannyAndJohn · 20/08/2021 18:38

Almost 40000 today, things are starting to look really bad.

We'll likely be well over the 50000 mark before children have even gone back to school.

wintertravel1980 · 20/08/2021 18:52

Almost 40000 today, things are starting to look really bad.

Actually they are not.

What we are seeing In Scotland and Wales is the impact of the "re-opening" wave (pubs/nightlife/large gatherings). Both nations are lagging England.

England is 3% up on prior Friday and the bulk of the increase is driven by SW/SE (Boardmasters spread). The areas that were hit hard previously are either flat or down.

My primary concern in relation to England is the increase in cases in 60s+ which drives up hospitalisation rates. I am hoping JCVI will decide on boosters sooner rather than later. I have so far supported all their decisions but I am not sure I understand their hesitation - the case for boosters appears quite compelling based on the data. Even a small boost in protection will relieve pressure on the healthcare system (as we know, a small percentage of a big number is still a big number).

JanglyBeads · 20/08/2021 19:17

Speaking of which:
www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58275495
Over 50 Swansea Bay Area cases linked to Boardmasters Festival.

By ‘linked’ will they just mean “they’d attended”?

MRex · 20/08/2021 19:17

@NannyAndJohn

Almost 40000 today, things are starting to look really bad.

We'll likely be well over the 50000 mark before children have even gone back to school.

You've been gone for so long. What have you been up to, I was starting to worry that you'd left the house?
MRex · 20/08/2021 19:18

@JanglyBeads

Speaking of which: www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58275495 Over 50 Swansea Bay Area cases linked to Boardmasters Festival.

By ‘linked’ will they just mean “they’d attended”?

I think it should be up to adding household members by now, it was 11-15 Sept.
MRex · 20/08/2021 19:19

Eh... AUGUST. Obvs.