Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Scotland removed isolation for vaccinated and child contacts on the 9th so the massive rise isn't unexpected. Isolating contacts of cases almost certainly does more to reduce transmission than isolating the case, particularly with the outdated symptom list we use.

I think there is a subtle difference in Scotland to the England rules, where even double vaccinated contacts still need to isolate until they get a negative PCR. So I would have thought that would be enough to catch quite a high proportion of contacts? Maybe not.

Then it's going to be even worse on England. They'll be missing a significant proportion of people who've tested too early though.

I still think the increase in Scotland is due to re-opening. They might be going through the "pub/nightclub/football" wave.

Cases in Netherlands started doubling every 2 days after removal of restrictions. The government had to close nightclubs and discos to get infections back down. They didn't need to do anything else, e.g. they didn't have to re-instate mask mandates.

@QueenStromba

Then it's going to be even worse on England. They'll be missing a significant proportion of people who've tested too early though.

I think many will likely not test as no legal requirement too or will test at the same time as the person with symptoms and it will be too early like you say. Some will isolate still from personal choice but many won’t or will be sending children into day care, school etc.

Yeah, I really hope that this board isn't representative.

Regarding timeframes, using the Chinese # days for infectivity; Person A infectious on exposure + 2.7 days, symptoms on day 3.9, test on day 4, with results on day 5/6, they stay home from day 3/4. Person B in their household was exposed on day 3 when they were most infectious and becomes infectious themselves on day 6. The requirement to take a PCR test is already day 5/6, so should be infectious already at the point they go to test.
Yes, they might test as the same time because everyone knows better than instructions, or they might still catch it later if they avoided Person A on day 3 etc, but the majority of infections should be caught whenever they choose to test and earlier the better as long as it's at least 2 days after the first household member got symptoms.

There is also a Singapore study suggesting that viral load reduces quickly in double vaccinated people, so even those who catch it and are asymptomatic present a lower risk: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.

What's the weather been like up the road? Has it been wet enough to drive people indoors. Weather does play a big part in Scotland. It's harder to sit outside all night for instance as it does get a bit cooler. Also west coast especially can be very wet.

Looking at the map quickly (although not working properly on gov.uk) it looks as if Inverclyde and surrounding areas might be hotshots? I think Inverclyde was a lower tier from neighbouring Renfrewshire last year? So not as badly hit? The nightclubs I think will cause problems as Scottish youngsters have had a harder time than most, especially Greater Glasgow so probably less immunity. Not sure the mask to the toilets but not when on the dancefloor will really make much of a difference

Percentages updated to over 16s, so 87.3% first dose and 75.7% second dose.

[quote MRex]Regarding timeframes, using the Chinese # days for infectivity; Person A infectious on exposure + 2.7 days, symptoms on day 3.9, test on day 4, with results on day 5/6, they stay home from day 3/4. Person B in their household was exposed on day 3 when they were most infectious and becomes infectious themselves on day 6. The requirement to take a PCR test is already day 5/6, so should be infectious already at the point they go to test.
Yes, they might test as the same time because everyone knows better than instructions, or they might still catch it later if they avoided Person A on day 3 etc, but the majority of infections should be caught whenever they choose to test and earlier the better as long as it's at least 2 days after the first household member got symptoms.

There is also a Singapore study suggesting that viral load reduces quickly in double vaccinated people, so even those who catch it and are asymptomatic present a lower risk: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.[/quote]
Except the testable symptoms list is woefully inadequate and people are normally ill for a few days before they get any of them.

A chart from TravellingTabby (twitter) breaking down positive cases in Scotland by age group.

The growth is happening across age groups. It is not just pre-school testing.

@QueenStromba - your stated concern that I was responding to was about testing too early. Not testing for other symptoms is a different concern, and wouldn't result in testing too early.

@MRex

Percentages updated to over 16s, so 87.3% first dose and 75.7% second dose.

Have you got the link for that?

@wintertravel1980

A chart from TravellingTabby (twitter) breaking down positive cases in Scotland by age group.

The growth is happening across age groups. It is not just pre-school testing.

Yes, and in the north east (Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Angus etc) cases are still fairly steady. Angus is the area where schools have been back the longest - over a week now. So if it was schools, I would expect to see more of an even increase across all areas.

There are many local authorities in the central belt and around that are seeing sudden increases at the same time.

Maybe it's in Edinburgh festival effect.

Maybe it's in Edinburgh festival effect.

Yes, I personally think a big super spreading event is a very likely scenario.

Similarly, we will keep seeing the impact of Boardmasters throughout the whole week across South West (and, maybe, South East):

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=South%20West

@titchy - coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Fab thanks MRex 👍

James Ward's thread on Broadmasters and the spike in cases in SW and, to a lesser extent, SE:

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1428407480556601345

today's England spec date graphic

anyone now where @jamesward gets more up to date age breakdown for cases? The openly published age band data for cases on the dashboard still has a five day lag; is there a more up-to-date file somewhere else on the dashboard.

now?????? - know

@lonelyplanet

Thank you QueenStromba, Christina Pagel has added a tweet to her thread. "UPDATE: apparently the classification of sequences into the different AY. sub lineages of Delta is very fluid at the moment and has in fact changed in just in the last few days... so likely that many/most of the classified AY3 sequences in Sanger are not AY3."

We'll just have to wait to see if there is it is one sub lineage beginning to grow or just a number, which may be less of a worry if none become dominant.

You may already have this linked, but for the UK the variant report should be published tomorrow here and should highlight any AY.3 confirmed info - www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers.

Vaccine hesitancy England. I just went through this looking for the smoking gun... and yes we can argue the people who do ONS surveys are more compliant generally, BUT there was a standout factor. Unemployed in big cities. Is it the lower levels of engagement with others that mean there's lower peer approval? Any other thoughts? Is anyone addressing this group specifically from PHE?

Sorry, the report: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/datasets/coronavirusandvaccinehesitancycityregions.

ONS economic indicators report is out; fairly good overall with companies closing balanced against rising vacancies: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/19august2021#main-points.
Particularly interesting that NW is showing the strongest growth and London the weakest right now.