Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

South West UTLAs

Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset

The big increase in Sedgemoor already referenced earlier; however Exeter* has seen a good week on week fall in rate.

West Midlands UTLAs

Staffordshire; Warwickshire and Worcestershire

Yorkshire and the Humber covering both the UTLAs and the North Yorkshire districts

finally the overall county areas rather than the constituent districts and boroughs.

@boys3

and the more Love Islandy Essex and Hertfordshire

OT But my part of Essex couldn't be less Love Islandy if it tried, far more muck spreading here, and muck spreading season started about 3 weeks ago, so pleasant running past the newly mucked fields (not).

More on topic I noticed the Tendring had a very slight uptick in the gov stats (not the tiny part of the already very low pop LA that I live in, we're still dropping after going above the average for Tendring for a couple weeks). But it has to be noted that very small numbers can cause a big looking spike, an extra 20 cases over a week in a relatively large geographical area that really only has 2 main towns and then countless villages, gives a 7.3% uptick.

What I find reassuring is that LAs that saw very high levels of prevalence during either Alpha and Delta waves seem to be doing reasonably well.

I have attached a couple of screenshots from the Covid dashboard. The LAs with the highest cumulative levels of historic cases are not necessarily those that we might think of. The actual order is Blackburn, Burnley, Knowsley, Hyndburn. We have not seen any major post July 15 spikes in any of those boroughs.

The second screenshot shows numbers for Bristol as a point of comparison. Its historic cumulative prevalence is 38% lower than Blackburn's. Of course, people who live there might think they were already hit hard but the numbers show a different picture. Bristol has never had to deal with the same levels of infections as NW or NE hotspots.

And then there is an interesting case of London with cumulative historic prevalence of "only" 10,489 cases per 100,000 population. However, the Delta wave has been stubbornly refusing to pick up over here/

One of the possible explanations is that London still holds meaningful acquired immunity from the very first wave (March-April 2020). Those cases were not captured and reported but back then (based on death and hospitalisation stats) London had the highest level of infections in comparison to other regions.

today's England spec date graphic

Thanks, boys3, this is very interesting.

It looks like the cases were flattening on Aug 12 and 13 but had a small spike on Aug 14. Adjusting for the 4 day incubation period, this takes us back to Aug 10, the day of A-level results and subsequent celebrations. I remember that boys3 suggested this may push the cases up.

Let us see what happens over next few days. The 4 day formula seems to be pretty accurate. I think we had wider ranges of incubation periods with other variants, including Alpha.

My dds A' level celebration has brought covid into our house, so you might be right. She went to a club on Tuesday, felt ill on Saturday, positive lft on Sunday and positive pcr today.

@wintertravel1980 I'm going to be a bit of a hypocrite and cite personal anecdote on the data thread, so I'll then be off to the naughty step :) but a number of DS3's friends have tested positive after celebrations last week. Mainly from a nightclub trip back end of the week which DS3 missed as he was working.

Beyond the immediate implications another potential repercussion is the delay to 2nd jab dates particularly for those heading off to Uni from mid Sep onwards.

Same delay for ,my DS1 boys....

A stat for everyone; Scottish schools are back today.

@MRex

A stat for everyone; Scottish schools are back today.

Not all! So it will be interesting to see the different areas. Renfrewshire was back today for instance but I don't know if all schools back on East Coast?

Teacher Training Days are also done at council level so all schools in council have same calendar.

Scotland's cases went up by 84% on the reported basis Monday to Monday. Sunday to Sunday variance is smaller but is still 21%. It will be hard to separate the school effect post August 16 from "general re-opening" we are seeing now.

I am not sure it was wise to delay Scotland's re-opening until August.

@wintertravel1980 - some of that increase could also be due to lots of LFTs for those going back to school/ college.

To clarify, Scotland does not do in school testing. However there has been encouragement for students to start at home testing again so presumably that will start to increase reported infection numbers tomorrow.

The percentage of students reporting home test results by the end of last term was in single digits in some parts of Glasgow. Hence much encouragement, and simplification of reporting processes, now.

Is it me being blind or have no figures come out today?

Saw them on BBC, about 28,000 new cases and a low death number as befits a Monday....

@JanglyBeads

Saw them on BBC, about 28,000 new cases and a low death number as befits a Monday....

Thank you. Really strange, I haven’t been able to find in media…

I say that and they just popped up on sky! 28,438 and 26 deaths.

No need to wait for the media, they are published here first every day -

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/