Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

today's England spec date graphic. Slightly larger increase for yesterday as compared with last week; however nothing on par with the level of increase when cases were rapidly increasing.

Although not shown the overall 7 day average in England for cases remains pretty flat.

Healthcare numbers creeping up.

[quote PatriciaHolm]No need to wait for the media, they are published here first every day -

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
Thank you 🙂

I live in an area badly hit throughout the pandemic, we were in constant lockdown & additional measures. We were also at one point top in the country for cases when Delta first hit. We really aren’t faring badly now at all, in fact, far bar better than neighbouring areas that didn’t have all the additional restrictions last year.

My other half joked that we’ve reached heard immunity here.. maybe he’s not far wrong 😂

Apparently, the herd immunity is unachievable...:( The new scientific buzzword is "endemic equilibrium":

inews.co.uk/opinion/future-covid-pandemic-look-you-testing-quarantine-1146092

Social distancing restrictions never prevent the spread of infection; they only delay the inevitable. This tactic has served us well during this pandemic: we were much better at treating severe disease in the second wave compared to the first, and for the third wave we had vaccines which we did not have for the second.

But science has delivered most of what it can to reduce the public health harm. I would argue that there is little further gain to be had from delaying the inevitable...

Big increase in Scotland over the last couple of days. May be just increased testing as kids there return to school.

mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1427672530823831552

That is an opinion piece though winter and I am not sure Prof Hunter's views are, at this point, widely shared in the scientific community. He really does seem to want testing to be scaled right back, for example.

He really does seem to want testing to be scaled right back, for example.

In his other interview, he said it is something that should be done "eventually", in 6 months or so, once we get through the winter.

I agree it is only an opinion but, as far as I can see, more and more scientists are slowly accepting this school of thought. Even Devi Sridhar, who was advocating for the zero Covid strategy not too long ago, seems to have changed her views.

But, much more importantly, Piggy, how are you feeling and how is your family?

Does it matter if it's an opinion piece, given that the policy is exactly that in every government in the world, that has stated their policy? We need to look at actions, all of them are pursuing the same end right now?

No-one is going for anything else but allowing infections once there's sufficient vaccination to ensure health care can cope?

I didn't mean it was only an opinion, more that it'll be a while before it becomes a policy as such. I think, personally, they need to be far far clearer about what symptoms are if they are advocating testing for only those with symptoms... the Delta symptoms are definitely not those classic three.

Thanks for asking winter. I feel a bit better. It's that stage where you easily overdo it, because you think you are better than you are! I still have no sense of smell and am very fatigued . Getting there....

Oh, and family are fine. DS1 completely better. DS2 also no sense of smell and still coughing and sweating!

DH one, thankfully, does seem to have swerved it. No idea how or why! Maybe he just naturally socially distances himself more from his children than I do??

lonely, I’ve read the thread and can’t understand that graph - are those points individual area increases / decreases Tue - Tue??

Testing for school return will have been reported Sun - today, assuming people test Sun - Mon and report within 24 hours.

@wintertravel1980

Apparently, the herd immunity is unachievable...:( The new scientific buzzword is "endemic equilibrium":

inews.co.uk/opinion/future-covid-pandemic-look-you-testing-quarantine-1146092

Social distancing restrictions never prevent the spread of infection; they only delay the inevitable. This tactic has served us well during this pandemic: we were much better at treating severe disease in the second wave compared to the first, and for the third wave we had vaccines which we did not have for the second.

But science has delivered most of what it can to reduce the public health harm. I would argue that there is little further gain to be had from delaying the inevitable...

Well that article seems like massive wishful thinking. Firstly, the evidence for Russian Flu being OC43 is circumstantial at best - the evident for it being a H3 type flu virus is just as solid if not more so.

Secondly, if Russian Flu was OC43 then the initial mortality rate must have been miniscule to begin with (~1 in 1,500) as the whole world would have needed to catch it on its path to endemicity. That's much lower than covid's mortality rate and that's without the benefit of modern medicine.

Added to that, OC43 has an estimated R0 of about 2, Delta's is 6-7 - we're probably all going to catch it more often than every four years.

Finally, there's no evidence that OC43 spreads asymptomatically. Covid is most transmissible around the onset of symptoms and doesn't tend to become serious until long after the peak of infectiousness. There is basically no selective pressure on the virus to evolve to become less deadly.

[quote lonelyplanet]Big increase in Scotland over the last couple of days. May be just increased testing as kids there return to school.

mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1427672530823831552[/quote]
the graph seems to plot a single day against the single day a week earlier rather than using comparing 7 day average movement. Scotland has also had a recent bank holiday Monday; bank hols always seem to provide a dip in the number of cases.

Looking by spec date the conclusion looks to be the same though.

@JanglyBeads

lonely, I’ve read the thread and can’t understand that graph - are those points individual area increases / decreases Tue - Tue??

Testing for school return will have been reported Sun - today, assuming people test Sun - Mon and report within 24 hours.

Yes percentage change from previous week but I think there is a dot for every day. Grey dots England, blue dots Scotland.

I just realised I wrote DH one . There isn't another one secreted away....

Sorry x posted

Good that you are feeling a bit better, Piggy. Please take it easy and one step at a time!

I am really wondering why some people (like your DH) appear less susceptible to Covid than others. I have seen so many examples where one spouse caught Covid and the second one was absolutely fine (both now with Delta and earlier before vaccines). I wish we knew what factors were driving it: pure luck? blood type? genes? innate resistance? This would be so helpful.

It really would wouldn't it? I wonder it is even ever possible to work it out.

Don’t know if this is of any interest

www.covidhge.com/about

Can I ask you clever people, is there any evidence that Delta has a shorter incubation period (2-3 days rather than) ?
Timeline here
Sun 8- Dd went to a party (ss event)
Thurs 12- Dd had symptoms
Sat 14 2 of Dd's contacts (who were both already isolating) got symptoms.

From this it seems more like 48-72 hrs but not the 4-5 days previously reported.

@traumatisednoodle - there was some research from China that infectivity started at 2.9 days and symptoms at 3.7 days following exposure. 3-4 days seems common for those I know who've been infected recently. It may be shorter and less variable than previous variants.

That would fit yes. I guess it does make the virus "fitter" as more people get infected in amy given period, effectively increasing R0.

I knew I could count on this thread, Thamk you.

So DH (one of Dd's contacts) caught it Weds 11th he would have been infective Sat 13th onwards. We isolated him from the evening of the 14th, DS &I tested negative on Monday, I am thinking we have likely escaped ? Will do LFT tommorow to double check. Just can't bear the idea of isolation being extended.