Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Hospital covid infections report:
The average proportion of cases caught in hospital was 11% in the first wave but now stands at 2-5% despite the emergence of the more infectious Delta variant, first identified in India.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58186709.

I'll try to find the actual report...

Calum Semple was on BBC this morning talking about this. He mainly spoke about PPE and also about inappropriate guidance on the use of PPE in the first wave.

Here it is (Lancet search is shit by the way): www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01786-4/fulltext

Is there an ONS covid community surveillance report today? Or is it every other week?

I was wondering about that cases caught in hospital thing, superficially it looks a brilliant performance, but 11% to 5% is not good at all if 90% of the people in hospital are vaccinated with 80% success rate at stopping infection - which must be in the ballpark mustn't it?

That would be below 2% just from vaccination changes, so no changes from learnings?

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

Is there an ONS covid community surveillance report today? Or is it every other week?

Still 1:75 in England. Disappointing.

Just shows that testing is a bit pointless really. The major driver of the downward shift was behaviour - the end of the Euros.

Less people are getting tested and numbers have fallen an artificial amount. This is now undeniable.

The silver lining being, from Monday we don’t have to isolate anymore. Clearly those being contacted were not isolating properly. Test and trace has been a complete and utter waste of money.

We need to move to a new phase of “are the hospitals coping?”. The only metric being “yes” or “just about” or “no”.

Still 1:75 in England. Disappointing

But not in the slightest bit unexpected with the known lag on identifying falls due to the nature of the sampling?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Still 1:75 in England. Disappointing

But not in the slightest bit unexpected with the known lag on identifying falls due to the nature of the sampling?

ONS was 1:65 at peak. ONS now 1:75, is this going to get lower?

Cases were 45000ish per day in England at peak. Cases now are 25000ish.

So ONS has dropped 11% from 1.5% to 1.33%.
Cases have dropped 44%.

I’m depressed. Unless you think next week I’m going to hit 1:120?

We’re*

ONS also changed their info presentation of regional spread - what do people think about the new map?

Latest Bristol City Council email says we have case rate of 411 per 100k last 7 days.
Over 1900 mew cases and that won't include outer areas of City that fall under South Gloucestershire.
I know of 3 local young parents with primary age kids in 30s and 40s double jabbed who were covid postive last week.
Vaccinr rates adults only least 1 jab 74% but double vaccinated adults within City is less than 60%.
Bristol 10 to 19 year old seemed to rise faster than other areas of uk end of summer term.
I am really worried about schools going back as think many just not testing.

today's spec date graphic for England

deaths in England within 28 days by date of occurrence ; daily totals and seven day average; then percentage movement in the seven day average

hospital admissions

number in hospital - all of these just England

and finally reported cases (by spec date)

@Piggywaspushed - I got my dates wrong and my friend who had covid between jabs had already had the second Pfizer. She said it was fine; sore arm and a bad headache plus a couple of longer sleeps, nothing else after the first few days.

Ah, OK. Thanks for asking them though!

today's England spec date graphic.

@ILoveAllRainbowsx

this looks at today and then each of the the three previous Saturday's reporting. So compares the like for like position over the past 4 wks.

Hence Day-1 for reporting today is yesterday, Friday 13th ; Day-2 is Thursday 12th, and so on.

Today 5935 cases were added for yesterday, a relatively small (8%) increase as compared with the first day of reporting for Saturday last week (5489 cases); but higher again as compared with cases reported on July 31st for Friday 30th (5029); which was a small fall to that reported for Friday 23rd July on Thursday 24th (5131)

Day-2 relates to the previous 4 Thursdays, and is the two day total. In this instance the total so far for Thursday 12th is 23660, this time last week the total for Thursday 5th was 23,778; hence marginal fall this week.

Day-3 relates to the last 4 Wednesdays, reflecting the 3 day total. Today therefore the total for Wednesday 11th so far is 27,654; as compared with 26,915 as the equivalent reporting point for Wednesday 4th.

Day-4 relates to the last 4 Tuesdays, reflecting the 4 day case total. Again Wednesday just gone at 26,712 is slightly up on the equivalent point last week 26,113; a little higher again that the week before, but significantly lower than the position four weeks ago.

No child ICU beds in Dallas, Texas: amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/08/13/us/dallas-county-no-pediatric-icu-beds-left/index.html.
This has been going on for a couple of days on and off. Hard to see it getting better with cases still rising, it's very worrying.

One thing on the Dallas comments there though, it's not because of children in ICU due to covid taking up all the beds, it's because the ICU staff are on adult wards. (just highlighting so as not to alarm people about child risk change)

Almost certainly worse than here due to the different vaccinated demographics and a lot more high risk people unvaccinated.

Rqinbow, and boys, I understand what the daily graph of tests is showing, but I’m not sure I understand its particular significance?