Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

England population over 16 on latest ONS stats is 45,496,780; 1,391,235 in the 16-17 range. www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/demographics/age-groups/latest#:~:text=by%20ethnicity%20Summary-,The%20data%20shows%20that%3A,aged%2060%20years%20and%20over
Population on the main page is 52,882,251 (calculating backwards from first dose figures and percentage).
You're correct; unless Scotland, Wales and NI have a much younger population they are doing a percentage against the 18+ instead of 16+.

Travelling Tabby has done his own stats and identified 19% under 16 plus 11% unvaccinated: www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

[quote MRex]Travelling Tabby has done his own stats and identified 19% under 16 plus 11% unvaccinated: www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/[/quote]
Ah cool. So we are 70% of 16 and over single dosed?

That sounds better than 75% of 18+ dosed.

But Tory-caveman like big number tweet. Big number good.

Using this - www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2020#age-structure-of-the-uk-population

I make it 86.7% of 16's and over single jabbed. The 70% from Travelling Tabby above is of the whole population.

There are 54,353,665 16 and overs in the doc above stats for mid 2020 in UK. Vacc numbers from Gov site are 47,170,968 for UK -
which equals

...86.7!

Didn't mean to split, sorry...

Ah yeah, long day. My previous post was nonsense.

Hopefully they’ll update the dashboard to reflect the changes soon.

To continue from my previous post re school air quality, some commentary on what the government’s doing here, and contrasts in other western countries:

www.independent.co.uk/news/science/covid-cases-schools-children-vaccine-latest-b1900958.html?fbclid=IwAR3Cm75wUsqr0KoLV5llm5xYFO1zCPzkSu27jCEmNDoGlTS5hDyUIkRr62Y

We would qualify for free NHS, but happy to organise our own, and I don't want both at the same time thank you very much!

If you qualify for free flu jabs, you get them free at Boots.

The current English councils with the highest seven day case rates.

Several on a downward trajectory (such as Lincoln for example).

The amber highlights any council whose latest rate is the highest of any of the five weeks shown.

Only 1 council from the North West - Blackpool - features in the highest 25; and on a downward trajectory

I council from the North East - Middlesbrough - features in the highest 25; big drop from its peak rate although has plateaued.

Councils in England with the lowest 7 day rate.

Thread favourite Swale appears.

Largely, although not exclusively, MC England.

Councils with the biggest absolute week on week rate per 100,000 movement. Sedgemoor appears here unsurprisingly.

Councils with the lowest absolute week on week rate per 100,000 movement. Lincoln the biggest drop of any council in England.

Noticing, by the way, quite a trend now for people with positive LFTs and symptoms not bothering with PCRs. If that's widespread then that's a concern, although I understand hospitalisation numbers won't alter because of that fact.

Lots picking it up after days with wider family a few days beforehand, so the no need to isolate if in contact thing could be an interesting experiment in the making.

Gone brain dead at this stage in the proceeeings - why is no follow up PCR a problem piggy? Just because no possibility of sequencing?

Im not sure people with mild symptoms are testing either. Or kids...

@JanglyBeads

Gone brain dead at this stage in the proceeeings - why is no follow up PCR a problem piggy? Just because no possibility of sequencing?

I guess if you don’t report back to the government you’ve had a lft + then you can carry on as normal. If you get a pcr + then it’s legal to isolate

I hadn't even thought about the isolation issue as the ones I am aware if are bedridden but yes it does mean no contact tracing.

I more thought inaccurate case numbers, and lack of sequencing, yes.

Is contact tracing stopping after the 16th? They arent going to call just to let us know if we are a close contacr if we aren't having to isolate will they?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58191293
Covid booster: US approves third jab for the immunocompromised

US drug regulators have given approval for immunocompromised Americans to get an additional Covid jab as a booster to help stave off infection and illness.

The order issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) affects around 10 million people, including transplant recipients and cancer patients.

It marks the first time that US health officials have indicated that booster shots may be necessary to fight Covid.

Several others countries have begun providing booster jabs to some groups.

The issue of booster vaccines will be discussed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccines panel at a meeting on Friday. If approved by the group, boosters could become available by this weekend.

Experts say the two-dose Moderna and Pfizer vaccines or the single-dose Johnson & Johnson may not sufficiently protect some people, especially those who have a weakened immune system.

All three vaccines are currently approved in the US under an emergency use authorisation. Pfizer, which has applied for full authorisation, has lobbied US and European regulators to approve a third booster dose.

@L1ttleSeahorse

Is contact tracing stopping after the 16th? They arent going to call just to let us know if we are a close contacr if we aren't having to isolate will they?

It's supposed to continue as PCRs are encouraged.

@L1ttleSeahorse

Is contact tracing stopping after the 16th? They arent going to call just to let us know if we are a close contacr if we aren't having to isolate will they?

I think it’ll continue but they’ll encourage you to take a pcr … but you don’t have to if you don’t want to

I suppose I was thinking of LFT positives per se as opposed to LFT positive which isn’t reported. Those are still included in the daily numbers etc.

*Those = Positive LFTs which are reported

There have always been people avoiding testing, or not using the whole family etc. The proportion changing would affect test positivity, but that dropped then stabilised along with cases. I would think not needing to isolate as a contact might make more feel comfortable with testing, because they'll affect themselves and not their whole household being stopped from going out to work. Or bake no difference at all. We'll see what happens to the positivity rate, I think that's the main signal of any under-testing.

Yes, agreed.