Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Omg. Not sure where that Thus came from. And the first part should be 53.3m and 54.3m. I’m going back to bed.

Thanks Andrew Pollard of the JCVI told Parliament yesterday that we should stop testing, just count serious illness.

What do we think about this idea?

(I don’t know where the “Thanks” came from either!)

@JanglyBeads

Thanks Andrew Pollard of the JCVI told Parliament yesterday that we should stop testing, just count serious illness.

What do we think about this idea?

I think we should be moving towards that idea. Hopefully the removal of the need to isolate as a close contact of Monday will be the first step towards that.

After all we don't routinely test every sniffle for the flu (yes I know its not the flu and actually considering the fatality rate of the 1919 flu pandemic we should be bloody grateful its not the flu), and we are supposed to be moving towards living with covid in the same way we do the flu.

On the other hand my GP told me yesterday that I should be PCR testing for covid for pretty much any symptoms (sniffles, sore throats, coughs not characteristic of covid etc).

They have seen a lot of negative LFTs that were positive on PCR.

Mind you, I am CEV

I agree with him, but am also quite depressed by the thought of no herd immunity. Probably the most depressed I’ve felt since the start of the pandemic.

I think it’s quite selfish to say “the vast majority our population is now safe so we are giving up trying to contain this”. I think this is a decision that should be made once the world hits an appropriate level of vaccine coverage.

I wouldn’t want to not be vaccinated this winter coming, that is for sure.

Will be a bit sad seeing old folks who’ve had two jabs, been locked up inside for nearly two years, be overlooked for a ventilator, because hoards of anti-vaccine 30/40/50 year olds are on them.

@herecomesthsun

On the other hand my GP told me yesterday that I should be PCR testing for covid for pretty much any symptoms (sniffles, sore throats, coughs not characteristic of covid etc).

They have seen a lot of negative LFTs that were positive on PCR.

Mind you, I am CEV

I would definitely say the same now. Vomiting and nausea/ diarrhoea too. Banging headaches (if also feeling run down as obviously that can be a common thing). All on Zoe app.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

Sorry if it’s been asked recently.

But is the dashboard going to update to reflect adults as 16+?

Or have they never added under 18 vaccinations to the grand total (that they love to tweet about)?

Whilst it may not be on the dashboard yet it is published in the weekly NHS files, 10th link in the OP.

Whilst that is only updated weekly with the next update due out tomorrow afternoon, last week’s showed

240,332 cumulative vaccine first doses to under 18s, and 85758 second dose. Or roughly 1.9% and 0.7% of the NIMS under 18 population published alongside it.

Detail in terms of numbers provided as for every other age band down to MSOA level, although with an element of suppression for MSOAs.

It will be interesting to see how the figures have moved over the space of a week.

A comment which is equally applicable across the younger age bands.

I wouldn’t want to not be vaccinated this winter coming, that is for sure.

Imagine how teens feel. Helpless.

Whatever9999

I know what you mean about the flu. With the obvious disclaimers about why this is not the flu for multiple reasons, ultimately we have to live with a new endemic virus, transmissible via aerosols, that will kill and disable a certain proportion of the human population every year.

Zooming into our privileged country, with the amount of vaccine uptake we have, I’d be really interested in the comparison between flu and covid for hospitalisation and death this winter.

One factor which I think we sometimes miss though when comparing them is that covid is still pandemic and flu is endemic.

There is so much more background immunity for flu, built up over decades of exposure for adults.

With so many millions still naive to the virus and it’s variants (and unvaccinated), isn’t there so much more covid around compared to flu?

I honestly don’t have a sense of this.

Even if this is a “bad” flu year, will the actual amount of the virus circulating be less than covid? Is flu prevalence measured by the ONS in the same way as covid?

And, if vaccination reduces the age-stratified IFR of covid down to the same as flu (?), is covid still way more of a risk to everyone because there’s just so much more of it swilling around that you’re many more times likely to catch it?

Flu prevalence is monitored by testing in certain institutions and by hospitalisations. The details were in the renamed flu and covid surveillance report, if they aren't in the latest then they are in one from last autumn: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.

@everythingthelighttouched

Well with 1/3 flu infections being asymptomatic and the other 2/3 ranging from "a heavy cold" to life-threatening (and yes there are deaths every year, mostly in the same age range hit worst by covid but also in young children where flu is more dangerous than covid), I would say that in a normal year flu is probably near enough as if not as prevalent as covid. But as we don't test for it in the same way among those that are mildly unwell (or not even actually ill themselves) we will never know how prevalent it is.
Considering that we have flu vaccines (that may only be around 50% effective) and still can have 30000+ people die of flu in a bad year, I'm sure that means there are plenty of infections at any one time, especially in the winter.

Prof Finn on vaccinating 16yo due to some severe cases in that age group, and comments that maybe not everyone over 50 will need boosters: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58170048

I hope they don’t stop reporting case numbers. Whilst it’s only a guide, given how many refuse to test, it’s better than nothing and people can risk assess whether doing something is worth it. Particularly when come next week when there’s covid in a household the rest are free to go out and about….. dreading winter.

Thanks whatever9999
Just working this one through,

“ I would say that in a normal year flu is probably near enough as if not as prevalent as covid.”

We’re just guessing. It might be way lower

“But as we don't test for it in the same way among those that are mildly unwell (or not even actually ill themselves) we will never know how prevalent it is.”

I suppose this is my point really. We should be testing samples collected through the ONS survey (of a random selection of the population) for both flu and covid.

It would give everyone more context.

I’ve just started looking back through some old reports via the link MRex posted and yes, it was never recorded in the same way. Multiple different systems were used but even the old “sentinel “ system was random testing of GP and hospital-collected respiratory samples, so presumably symptomatic.

There is also flusurvey (from LSHTM) which is more akin to the Zoe app.

I know I am fragile atm but that last bit really worries me. Last week, before DSs tested positive double vaccinated old me was wandering around, spreading covid whilst catching it from them - and spreading it onwards. Not at work atm but if I was. Feel jittery about how that will go.

Answer a q data bods who might have seen this. How long before I am not a 'spreader'? Trying to factor in cancelled meet up with grandparents (outdoors in pub garden), one of whom is CEV. They aren't related to me (DH's mum and stepdad), so I'd just cancel but it's not my call.

@JanglyBeads

Thanks Andrew Pollard of the JCVI told Parliament yesterday that we should stop testing, just count serious illness.

What do we think about this idea?

I think its a good idea. We can get an idea of cases via hospital admissions. We don't need to know the exact number.

labtestsonline.org/news/new-tests-detect-novel-coronavirus-and-influenza-single-sample

In the US they are rolling out tests that will detect both flu and covid.

And with the "why not treat covid like flu" question, I think the more interesting question is "what if we treated flu more like covid?". Not in a lock down and restrictions way, but in a more widespread testing way, maybe advising masks when cases were high, potentially self isolation payments to encourage low paid workers to stay home when ill with it. We accept a lot of flu deaths in a bad year, but covid has shown what measures do help (and what measures feel intolerable and which aren't that restrictive). We could also look into improving ventilation standards in public buildings and workplaces.

We should be testing samples collected through the ONS survey (of a random selection of the population) for both flu and covid

But why just these two respiratory diseases, why not others? And what would we actually do with the information? There was a good reason with covid, it was novel such that huge numbers were at elevated risk, so we needed interventions which caused harm to protect people. But with normal respiratory diseases there aren't huge numbers, and for many actually catching the infection while younger and/or healthier is required to boost immunity to deal with it when more vulnerable to disease.

So what would you do with the information? I don't agree that providing information to individuals about their own risk when vulnerable is useful, overall prevalence is much less useful than contact surveillance - the people you hug, eat dinner with etc. are much more relevant than the people in the park. With peoples inability to judge risk in the area anyway, it would not be actionable information for them.

@Piggywaspushed

I know I am fragile atm but that last bit really worries me. Last week, before DSs tested positive double vaccinated old me was wandering around, spreading covid whilst catching it from them - and spreading it onwards. Not at work atm but if I was. Feel jittery about how that will go.

Answer a q data bods who might have seen this. How long before I am not a 'spreader'? Trying to factor in cancelled meet up with grandparents (outdoors in pub garden), one of whom is CEV. They aren't related to me (DH's mum and stepdad), so I'd just cancel but it's not my call.

Go by symptoms not time, and definitely not test as that can still pick up dead virus. Lingering cough and loss of taste/smell plus some fatigue = most likely not.infectious. Any D&V, fever etc and I would leave 3 days minimum post symptoms before meeting.

Thanks MRex, that's what test and trace say too. It's counter intuitive, isn't it, as a cough seems the most contagious thing!

@Piggywaspushed

Thanks MRex, that's what test and trace say too. It's counter intuitive, isn't it, as a cough seems the most contagious thing!

I'll see if I can find useful research for you. My friend works in ICU and said the cough is mostly dead lung cells, but they were testing higher viral load from other symptoms. Earlier cough when it's dry might be more infectious, just mucous one less so?

Imo not quaranting household with a positive is crazy still at this stage.
I can see non household vaxxed contacts maybe.
I mean that will include say those household people going to dentist or hospital appts.
Potentially theatre.
Dp has a meeting of 100 people and a buffet.
Weddings which could have hundreds.
Will they be allowed to fly?

Also those who vaxxed x2 (probably AZ) and get severe symptoms would likely like to get a booster/pay in the longer term.
As if there is a very large wave even without contact isolation how many will be off with moderate symptoms over 10days.

If we stop testing completely

• diagnosis of LC could be harder would have to assume exposure
• seeing older relatives who you want to be careful around could be difficult going from one cold to the next.

Will vaccines get better at preventing symptoms completely over time. 95% on some obviously very good but thats still a lot on a country scale

is there any data of how many cases are being imported currently? being contacted by t&t after traveling from spain post visiting my family and have to isolate. seems from other threads many planes from spain are coming back with a case ... which is annoying because I fear they'll put extra measurements for spain and I'd like to go back any time soon to visit my family ...