SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

Cant see how herd immunity will work. But worth a try I guess?

You can’t stop the spread. So herd immunity is going to happen whether you like it or not. Unless you manufacture more effective vaccines that actually stop the spread. NPIs don’t work, they haven’t worked anywhere to stop the spread.

We’re at the stage where people hang on to Cumming’s view but dismiss CMO.

Presumably because they need it to align with own views. Funny though who people will turn to.

Yeah I’m a bit surprised to see a lot of #FBPE people hanging on Cummings’s every word.

Reinfection after having covid is pretty rare. In the observable timeframe obviously. Infection seems to offer much better protection against getting covid again than the vaccine does.

I came to the conclusion a year ago, that the virus will likely continue to circulate the world for decades if not centuries.
And I for one am not going to cow to it.
Having said that, I do have the luxury of being perfectly healthy.

We’re at the stage where people hang on to Cumming’s view but dismiss CMO.

Bizarre 😆

@UsedUpUsername

Cant see how herd immunity will work. But worth a try I guess?

You can’t stop the spread. So herd immunity is going to happen whether you like it or not. Unless you manufacture more effective vaccines that actually stop the spread. NPIs don’t work, they haven’t worked anywhere to stop the spread.

Except that it won't happen, because

herd immunity won't happen naturally,

the vaccines though effective aren't effective enough to give herd immunity

immunity appears to wane

So there will be, not herd immunity, but repeated cycles of people getting infected, with some people dying, some people getting disabilities of various sorts, and the NHS taking blow after blow.

Restrictions that can reduce that process are worth pursuing, while we look for better scientific answers, which we can be fairly optimistic about.

After all, we got multiple vaccines in less than a year.

@TheKeatingFive

We’re at the stage where people hang on to Cumming’s view but dismiss CMO.

Bizarre 😆

but literally no one is doing that

bizarre indeed

Of course people are doing that.

Scroll back. Talking about how they alone get the role of CMO etc and then importance of what Cummings is doing

Unlikely alignment from that political section but there you go

Initial thoughts reading first few posts..
The 2017 to 2018 flu season was totally different though. It was bad not the same at all. Deaths were significantly lower and this was with no mitigation. COVID deaths were with mitigation.
DH wasn't ECV than either.
I don't actually think people are cowering away in real life. Certainly not in my friendship group and family. My ecv dh is out and about now doing stuff n a sensible manner.
FWIW I think heard immunity was always at the back of Boriss mind. He said as much at the start.

I guess we have to risk it at some point. Onlyvtine eill tell whether it is the right decision but I think the decision is very much linked to cold hard cash. The economy needs to open up.

@MarshaBradyo

Of course people are doing that.

Scroll back. Talking about how they alone get the role of CMO etc and then importance of what Cummings is doing

Unlikely alignment from that political section but there you go

nah.

The whole Cummings thing is sort of interesting in a horror show sort of way.

However, poor Chris Whitty, whom I hugely respect, gets his views distorted all sorts of ways - he really isn't arguing for herd immunity guys.

We need to up our STEM education big time.

herd immunity won't happen naturally

Needs evidence. Currently we know that natural infection confers just as much protection as the vaccine, maybe even better. Already we know that SARS antibodies have lasted nearly two decades.

So far looks promising:

www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.amp.html

So there will be, not herd immunity, but repeated cycles of people getting infected, with some people dying, some people getting disabilities of various sorts, and the NHS taking blow after blow

Treatments have improved since the first cycle, it’s something we’ll have to live with, there’s no alternative. Our fate was sealed once the virus left Wuhan.

Restrictions that can reduce that process are worth pursuing

Have any NPIs been demonstrated to be effective? I don’t think they have.

@TheKeatingFive

Reinfection after having covid is pretty rare. In the observable timeframe obviously. Infection seems to offer much better protection against getting covid again than the vaccine does.

I am coming to that conclusion too.

and @herecomesthsun's post.

We need to up our STEM education big time.

Nicely patronising but no dice. You are the one who put herd immunity in title and keeps going on about it.

His strategy is infection in summer before winter. He didn’t talk about herd immunity anyway.

www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/whitty-5-years-before-vaccine-can-hold-line-against-covid-variants.html

Whitty says here that it will be 5 years, he estimates, before vaccines will "hold the line" against covid. Presumably, intelligent use of masks etc would be a good idea till things are a bit more sorted.

"England’s top medical officer has warned that the coming winter will continue to be difficult for the country’s health system despite the country’s successful coronavirus vaccination program.

A further easing of lockdown restrictions in England was delayed this week [June 2021]due to a surge in cases of the delta variant first discovered in India.

In a speech to the NHS Confederation Thursday, Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said the current wave of Covid infections due to the delta variant would likely be followed by another surge in the winter.

He said that Covid-19 “has not thrown its last surprise at us and there will be several more [variants] over the next period,” according to Sky News. He added that it would likely take five years before there are vaccines that could “hold the line” to a very large degree against a range of coronavirus variants.

And until then, he said that new vaccination programs and booster shots would be needed."

@MarshaBradyo

We need to up our STEM education big time.

Nicely patronising but no dice. You are the one who put herd immunity in title and keeps going on about it.

His strategy is infection in summer before winter. He didn’t talk about herd immunity anyway.

er the article mentions herd immunity and a lot of the other posters do too, so I'm responding to that.

I don't think Whitty wants herd immunity but I think there are a lot of Conservative politicians who might retain an emotional attachment to the idea. And they, not Chris Whitty, are the elected representatives making the decisions.

The thing is even if we don’t reach it he is still advising infection now to peak in summer.

The herd immunity part isn’t what’s driving it as it may not be reached. I’d say it’s unlikely but hard to be sure as pp has other info. Used post haven’t read link but that one. Maybe it could be I can’t say.

It doesn’t change what we do now though which is peak but slowly enough to keep within capacity before winter.

It just means it isn’t over, but the difference in what we do now is negligible - ie cases rise to natural peak.

@UsedUpUsername

*herd immunity won't happen naturally

Needs evidence.*

So there have been various calculations that suggest herd immunity isn't feasible with delta .

for example

www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-why-hasnt-herd-immunity-stopped-covid

edition.cnn.com/2021/03/30/health/herd-immunity-covid-shifts/index.html

and Kit Yates in the BMJ (16.07.21) on why vaccinating about half the population and leaving the rest to get infected is not a good way forward

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/16/kit-yates-how-can-we-reach-herd-immunity/

"Currently, around 47% of the UK population are not yet fully vaccinated. Denying everyone in the country the best chance of being protected through vaccination and relying instead on “caution, vigilance, and personal responsibility” to tackle an airborne and highly contagious infectious disease is an abdication of responsibility, which will involve exposing millions to the acute and long-term impacts of mass infection."

Actually I have to revise that

What happens when we reach the natural peak and decline?

This is his current strategy - to do this before winter

@MarshaBradyo

The thing is even if we don’t reach it he is still advising infection now to peak in summer.

The herd immunity part isn’t what’s driving it as it may not be reached. I’d say it’s unlikely but hard to be sure as pp has other info. Used post haven’t read link but that one. Maybe it could be I can’t say.

It doesn’t change what we do now though which is peak but slowly enough to keep within capacity before winter.

It just means it isn’t over, but the difference in what we do now is negligible - ie cases rise to natural peak.

Well, Whitty is saying he himself would wear a mask inside and he is advocating caution.

I think our actions will influence what happens over the summer and into the autumn. It is hard to see how, collectively, they would not.

For example, gathering together to watch TV and sing Flower of Scotland probably influenced Scottish covid rates (very sorry they didn't get further, go Scotland & etc).

It is still foolish to put ourselves in the way of catching it

You’ll always be in the way of catching though. It’s an invisible entity that no matter how much society tries to control it, they can’t. You can see it so every time you leave your house, restrictions or no restrictions, there’s a chance you’ll catch it.

Yes they can slow the spread by locking every one up for weeks on end, but it doesn’t disappear does it? It’s still out there waiting until everything is opens up then it starts again.

So you see, it’s a never ending cycle and it could literally go on for years. This is why it’s pointless having restrictions, because they just postpone the inevitable.

Most people will catch it now so the sooner they do, the sooner herd immunity will kick in.

You can’t see it

@EnemyOfEducationNo1

I wonder if the herd immunity proponents would feel the same if catching the virus led to a hugely increased risk of Parkinson's, Lewy body dementia, or similar in the near future. They have already proved that even mild infection leads to cognitive impairment, and a study on rhesus monkeys found Lewy bodies and brain damage in ALL monkeys, even those who had it asymptomatically.

Links??

Good luck avoiding something you can’t see, hear or feel…..!!

@TableFlowerss

*You can’t see it*

lol at seeing it

• it's not inevitable

• being careful does help

we will be going on holiday, but to the UK.

We won't be going to amusement parks.

We might go to the theatre but if so will go to an outdoor performance.

We might take the kids out but to an uncrowded beach or gardens.

We won't be holding indoor parties but will be meeting our neighbours for picnics if the weather is good.

We can manage fine like that. We are lucky in some respects that we have easy access to gardens, beaches and outdoor space.

And I will be getting shopping online and wearing a mask to the supermarket, if I go.

And yes, if a lot of us do this sort of thing, it will help. It will dampen peaks of any waves and it will ease the burden on health service. There will be fewer deaths and fewer people with long term symptoms.

we will be going on holiday, but to the UK

Why would this make you less likely to catch it?