SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

@MarshaBradyo well Whitty is advising masks inside, whenever you are around vulnerable people and whenever it would make people feel more comfortable. Maybe we should all follow that?

I'm not a fan of this government, didnt vote them and would never vote them. However I do feel they are dammed if they do dammed if they dont.

Everytime a rule is put in place its;

"They are taking the piss" "this is rediculous" "doesn't matter I've never followed the rules anyway"

When rules are all taken away its

"Oh great so they are just gonna let everyone catch it" "what about variants?"

There does have to be some degree of personal responsibility, if I catch covid from going to a busy pub, I'm not going to blame the Gov for opening the pub, I'll blame myself for going to the busy pub.

Most people have lost sight of the reason we had lock downs, they stay stuff like "oh I had it wasnt even that bad, dont care if I get it again" or "dont know why schools have to isolate it doesnt even bother children". Whenever I point out it was always about hospital admissions, and every positive case is potentially in the chain to leading to a hospital admission and isolations break that chain, people just shrug.

I don't think its possible now to reconnect people with those reasons, as most have declared they are "over this whole covid thing now".

So the current method might aswell go ahead

"The chief medical adviser has warned ministers of a challenging winter but said that England is on course to ease restrictions on July 19.

Professor Chris Whitty said at a cabinet briefing on Monday that the increase in coronavirus cases was not leading to a sharp rise in people needing hospital treatment.

The chief medical officer for England said that summer was the time to ease as many restrictions as possible, provided there was not a rise in Covid-19 patients in hospitals, and that winter would be harder because the virus spread more when people were indoors."

You see, this sounds like a careful opening up so people are able to do more stuff outdoors, rather than a sort of big covid party because herd immunity

@MarshaBradyo

You are the person being political there and you attack me without ground, you declare I am blinkered but presumably do not think you could be yourself.

I simply observed what Conservative MPs are doing. My view is the government is terrified of the inquiry, because what Cummings has revealed is basically true - chaotic decision-making and little regard for life.

However, masks remain a good idea indoors, and Whitty famously said he'll continue to wear them.

On the overground all week everyone wore one. Why can’t you see throughout this pandemic behavioural tools have been used to success?

This is a result of shifting from mandate to rail advice with backing from media messages from Whitty etc.

It wasn’t the free for all you talk about. Also I’ve only been shopping locally but all same rules on masks and numbers are still in place. No change

We have not been a country who has used enforcement to high level but messaging and behavioural comms. It’s why compliance was high and also why Whitty also says the public have been good and thinks we will continue to be. I’d say no one else gets this part better.

The mix of strong expertise on virus but also knowledge of public behaviour together is there

www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext

Possible effects on the brain caused by covid even in people without long covid. It's hard to feel relaxed about inevitable infection when reading that.

I would love to read the emails between CMO and 10DS.

Normally we would have to wait years.

If a properly constituted inquiry, we could see them next year.

[quote lannistunut]@MarshaBradyo

You are the person being political there and you attack me without ground, you declare I am blinkered but presumably do not think you could be yourself.

I simply observed what Conservative MPs are doing. My view is the government is terrified of the inquiry, because what Cummings has revealed is basically true - chaotic decision-making and little regard for life.[/quote]
I welcome the enquiry.

Not by Cummings though. A self protective individual if there ever was one.

[quote MummyPop00]@herecomesthesun

If you want to cower under your bed for the rest of your existence that’s your prerogative. I choose not to. I don’t think that’s stupid. I didn’t cower away in 2018 (last bad flu season, 300-400 deaths per day at the peak) so I’m not going to be a hypocrite now.[/quote]
Ridiculously emotive language.

@Balloonrace

www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext

Possible effects on the brain caused by covid even in people without long covid. It's hard to feel relaxed about inevitable infection when reading that.

This is a big risk in infecting the young.

This sort of risk has always been why I would prefer my child not to get covid again and again (had it once).

@MarshaBradyo

However, masks remain a good idea indoors, and Whitty famously said he'll continue to wear them.

On the overground all week everyone wore one. Why can’t you see throughout this pandemic behavioural tools have been used to success?

This is a result of shifting from mandate to rail advice with backing from media messages from Whitty etc.

It wasn’t the free for all you talk about. Also I’ve only been shopping locally but all same rules on masks and numbers are still in place. No change

We have not been a country who has used enforcement to high level but messaging and behavioural comms. It’s why compliance was high and also why Whitty also says the public have been good and thinks we will continue to be. I’d say no one else gets this part better.

The mix of strong expertise on virus but also knowledge of public behaviour together is there

1 we have been encouraging mask wearing indoors till July 19th and we need to encourage it still. Yes, it's really good that people are wearing masks.

1. There is an idea, discussed on here, that we should be going for herd immunity over the summer. That would be the "free for all". That would be a bad idea.

No-one thinks Cummings will have role in the inquiry, other than a witness from the room.

It does need to be judge-led and under oath.

@lannistunut

No-one thinks Cummings will have role in the inquiry, other than a witness from the room.

It does need to be judge-led and under oath.

Yep and good.

He shouldn’t have had this much airtime on what he thinks already.

May have been said before on this thread, but how does herd immunity work, when thousands of people come into this country bringing new variants?

1 we have been encouraging mask wearing indoors till July 19th and we need to encourage it still. Yes, it's really good that people are wearing masks.

1. There is an idea, discussed on here, that we should be going for herd immunity over the summer. That would be the "free for all". That would be a bad idea.

—

I was on overground past July 19. Nothing changed very high compliance. Higher than previously oddly.

So it doesn’t match with free for all of these things stay in place.

@lannistunut

No-one thinks Cummings will have role in the inquiry, other than a witness from the room.

It does need to be judge-led and under oath.

There wont be a public and full inquiry, not in any meaningful timescale.

and will take even longer to report - iraq one took 7 years, look at Bloody Sunday to see how long stuff can be made to take.....

So long as Cummings has evidence, such as the recent Whatsapp messages from Bojo, i want to hear what he has to say... anyone who doesn't is showing rather extreme political biase.

If the public were not interested they would not watch. The UK is not China, we have free speech and a free media.

I was interested in the Cummings interview as you so rarely hear from inside the room so soon after an event. Obviously not comfortable watching for the government.

Agree with @jasjas1973 here: So long as Cummings has evidence, such as the recent Whatsapp messages from Bojo, i want to hear what he has to say... anyone who doesn't is showing rather extreme political biase.

I was on overground past July 19. Nothing changed very high compliance. Higher than previously oddly

So it doesn’t match with free for all of these things stay in place

I though TFL had a mask rule?

I live in Cornwall, pubs? no one wears them, staff do, still behind screens, Social club had a big sing song night, packed, no masks, tesco - 50/50.

Peoplewill get more confident not wearing them, Sd, hand washing.

@lannistunut

If the public were not interested they would not watch. The UK is not China, we have free speech and a free media.

I was interested in the Cummings interview as you so rarely hear from inside the room so soon after an event. Obviously not comfortable watching for the government.

The first I watched.

The second no way. Was it interesting?

Couldn’t bear his voice, and for a whole hour too.

I suppose some will enjoy it, but fairly useless other than a couple of quotes for media.

@lannistunut

Agree with *@jasjas1973 here: So long as Cummings has evidence, such as the recent Whatsapp messages from Bojo, i want to hear what he has to say... anyone who doesn't is showing rather extreme political biase.*

Haha at this. He’s tied you up like a kipper. The Cummings show.

@Balloonrace

www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext

Possible effects on the brain caused by covid even in people without long covid. It's hard to feel relaxed about inevitable infection when reading that.

At this point you’ll be infected by COVID multiple times whether you’re vaccinated or not, so I don’t know what you really expect to happen. The vaccine doesn’t stop spread it just lessens the severity. It’s not realistic to think you can stop the spread

[quote lonelyplanet]Herd immunity won't work because you can catch covid more than once. The government's risk assessment for the delta variant has just been updated and makes this clear.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments

Israel are also finding that those vaccinated in January are already losing immunity. Although we can give boosters it will take time and there will be large numbers still vulnerable while we wait.
www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1626980447-vaccine-39-effective-at-halting-virus-transmission-91-against-serious-illness-israel-s-health-ministry-says[/quote]
And all of this.
Cant see how herd immunity will work. But worth a try I guess?

I am coming to the conclusion that the world, and Europe and North and South America in particular, are in a pickle.

@Scottishgirl85

Medicines are approved on benefit risk balance for the individual, not the population. I trust the MHRA to get it right based on the evidence, let's leave it to the experts!

Apologies if this has been mentioned or if I'm misreading this post, but I just wanted to say for the sake of setting the record straight, the MHRA have already approved vaccines for 12+ in the U.K., in June I think. It's the JCVI that have decided not to proceed with vaccinating them just yet.