SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

Herd immunity you live or you die the the vaccine has improved the odds Brazil let it rip through figures way down now

There is the factor that many adults who are not currently vaccinated are voluntarily unvaccinated. Soon all will have had the chance for 2 vaccines.

Not taking account of worthy exceptions, keeping certain restrictions on everyone, including the fully vaccinated, simply so we can protect these voluntarily unvaccinated from infection can be viewed as unfair.

Of course, there is an ethical argument for protecting the worthy exceptions (people who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons) and those whose immune systems don't generate an adequate response even when fully vaccinated, plus of course the under18s who have been shamefully excluded from vaccination.

Plus every infection contracted raises the risk of nasty variants.
Plus the risk of long Covid with added long-term pressure on the NHS from these cases.

Really the government need to do even more to get everyone vaccinated. That is why they are creating societal incentives, such as travelling without quarantine. Nevertheless, it is the minority of people who are interested in foreign travel right now. The government need to create more incentives closer to home. Nightclubs also only interest a tiny minority. The government need to find a way to get unvaccinated people in their 30s and 40s to see the personal benefit of a vaccine in a sphere other than health and personal responsibility, as these people make up a large proportion of hospital admissions for Covid right now.

Not taking account of worthy exceptions, keeping certain restrictions on everyone, including the fully vaccinated, simply so we can protect these voluntarily unvaccinated from infection can be viewed as unfair

But it was fine to destroy every part of society to protect the vulnerable?

On the other hand it may serve to proofs the vaccinated will only infect each other.

@MarshaBradyo

But it’s this guy saying herd immunity not CMO?

So it’s not the strategy

The way to describe it is peak before winter.

So isn’t this just criticising something not being talked about by current key advisor - Whitty

no it's an idea floating around senior Tories - not I think the brainchild of the CMO.

Johnson decides strategy, not SAGE or the CMO

This guy West is saying this idea is wrong

Prove*

CMO backed July 19

I know you missed it but it’s key in this,

He backed out due to summer timing.

If you think he’s wrong then up to you. But he has backed it.

Then stayed caution - which he says public will be and he’s right.

This independent SAGE guy is using an outdated idea to do politics in The Guardian so he’s not even up to date with what’s possible. Variables around delta have changed situation.

Out - it

Of course CMO is responsible for what he says to MPs.

Winter will be hard so do infections now in summer.

If he didn’t think this he wouldn’t advise it.

I think some people are kidding themselves that it will all be over soon if we just have one last push of mass infections, and that there won't ever be any bad consequences (like population-wide cognitive issues) to those infections.

Collectively we should really be hoping for better treatments, as well as vaccines, right now. The idea that if you're going to get it anyway it might as well be soon doesn't really make sense given how much research is going on and how many new discoveries there are to make still. Similarly, even if we are all fated to get covid multiple times, there's no need to cram those infections in over a short time period when better treatments as well as vaccines might not be that far off.

@MarshaBradyo

CMO backed July 19

I know you missed it but it’s key in this,

He backed out due to summer timing.

If you think he’s wrong then up to you. But he has backed it.

Then stayed caution - which he says public will be and he’s right.

This independent SAGE guy is using an outdated idea to do politics in The Guardian so he’s not even up to date with what’s possible. Variables around delta have changed situation.

I watched the broadcast to the public on July 19

Whitty was NOT backing herd immunity.

Whitty was backing caution and masks, quite rightly.

The outdated idea is very much still circulating on the right and Prof West is reasonable in pointing this out,

Delta has made it even more important for us to be cautious, supporting Whitty's point about masks indoors etc.

You need to watch his address to MPs before that.

Not press conference

It felt contradictory but it’s not. He knows we will be cautious behaviourally and we are.

He is not talking about herd immunity but he his talking about infections now before winter.

OK quote what he said that supports herd immunity then?

meanwhile this is very much the gist of what I have been saying

Prof Whitty told an online seminar hosted by the Science Museum on Thursday evening that the situation in the UK could become very dangerous for individual hospitals.

He said: "I don't think we should underestimate the fact that we could get into trouble again surprisingly fast.

"I think saying the numbers in hospital are low now, that does not mean the numbers will be low in hospital in five, six, seven, eight weeks' time.

"They could actually be really quite serious."

He added: "We've still got 2,000 people in hospital and that number is increasing. If we double from 2,000 to 4,000 from 4,000 to 8,000, 8,000 and so on it doesn't take many doubling times until you're in very, very large numbers indeed."

While Prof Whitty cautioned "we are not by any means out of the woods yet", he added that "we are in much better shape due to the vaccine programme, and drugs, and a variety of other things".

"But this has got a long way to run in the UK, and it's got even further to run globally," he said.

He doesn’t talk about herd immunity he talks about lifting on July 19 to cabinet on around June 30th. Google it if you need more takes

England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has told government ministers that the remaining coronavirus rules can finally be lifted on July 19.

In what is a strong sign that 'freedom day' is firmly on the cards, Chris Whitty told a meeting of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's top team the recent surge in cases was not driving up hospital admissions and summer was the right time to end restrictions, according to reports in The Times.

But professor West wants a zero covid strategy. He is involved in a FB account saying so. So he's never going to be happy with any sort of strategy that lifts lockdowns until covid has gone.

@herecomesthsun

herd immunity won't work, we tried it already remember

What?! When did we try it? Or are you referring to the few days in March 2020 when the Government were scrambling for a plan. It was hardly a sustained herd immunity strategy. Besides that was pre-vaccine!

We may never know what Professor Whitty said behind closed doors, but my guess is that if his advice had been followed promptly and at all times, many fewer deaths would have happened, and the economy would have suffered a lot less.

Children have had 7 or 8 weeks more home schooling and non-essential shops closed for at least 6 weeks more than would have been the case with prompt action.

Herd Immunity and flattenning the curve is the textbook strategy and has been for years in Pandemic Planning. Saying it's a Tory plot is so so stupid and incorrect.

Some countries ripped up all the planning in early 2020 and went with shut borders/elimination. It worked for a while, but is now resulting in real suffering in many places.

@newnortherner111

We may never know what Professor Whitty said behind closed doors, but my guess is that if his advice had been followed promptly and at all times, many fewer deaths would have happened, and the economy would have suffered a lot less.

Children have had 7 or 8 weeks more home schooling and non-essential shops closed for at least 6 weeks more than would have been the case with prompt action.

You can access SAGE minutes from last year early Feb

WHO Pandemic Planning in 2019 - This is why we followed the initial strategy that we did.

@GoldenOmber

Yeah I’m a bit surprised to see a lot of #FBPE people hanging on Cummings’s every word.

Not many are hanging on his every word. I am personally no fan of him. But I worked in politics and find the current chaos in 10DS both worrying and interesting, his interview was a good watch.

It was also impactful I think, contributing to a week which has seen significant poll changes. These things pass the time.

@Balloonrace

I think some people are kidding themselves that it will all be over soon if we just have one last push of mass infections, and that there won't ever be any bad consequences (like population-wide cognitive issues) to those infections.

Collectively we should really be hoping for better treatments, as well as vaccines, right now. The idea that if you're going to get it anyway it might as well be soon doesn't really make sense given how much research is going on and how many new discoveries there are to make still. Similarly, even if we are all fated to get covid multiple times, there's no need to cram those infections in over a short time period when better treatments as well as vaccines might not be that far off.

People have been totally mislead about this so called exit wave. Unbelievably.

@starfro

WHO Pandemic Planning in 2019 - This is why we followed the initial strategy that we did.

It just wasn't appropriate for the disease we were actually facing. Even now that vaccines have made covid cause fewer hospitalisations, it's still not clear it's the right thing to do. It would probably have been fine for a mild new flu virus (but wouldn't have been for h5n1 flu, for instance).

There's no such thing as one size fits all pandemic planning that's the right thing to do for any disease.

@MarshaBradyo

He doesn’t talk about herd immunity he talks about lifting on July 19 to cabinet on around June 30th. Google it if you need more takes

England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has told government ministers that the remaining coronavirus rules can finally be lifted on July 19.

In what is a strong sign that 'freedom day' is firmly on the cards, Chris Whitty told a meeting of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's top team the recent surge in cases was not driving up hospital admissions and summer was the right time to end restrictions, according to reports in The Times.

The problem is the message that "Freedom Day" gives - along with "irreversible".

"Responsble Caution Day" doesn't sound quite so appealing, especially "temporarily, and so long as we don't hit any really big problems.

That is more like the message he has been giving.

[quote Warhertisuff]@herecomesthsun

herd immunity won't work, we tried it already remember

What?! When did we try it? Or are you referring to the few days in March 2020 when the Government were scrambling for a plan. It was hardly a sustained herd immunity strategy. Besides that was pre-vaccine![/quote]
It was the strategy they were going to use.

Until they realised it was going to be a disaster & capitulated.

The vaccines are not going to give us herd immunity as things currently stand.

He didn’t have to back it

Yet he did

You’ll hear what you want but it’s getting pretty circular now. You could say yes I was wrong he did back July 19 lifting - to cabinet

Fat chance with some though.