SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

plus of course the under18s who have been shamefully excluded from vaccination

Actually the only good decision they’ve made. No healthy child in the UK has died from COVID. They know which kids to target—a broad brush is inappropriate.

Plus every infection contracted raises the risk of nasty variants

Vaccine doesn’t stop transmission, unfortunately, and there’s evidence that the Pfizer may not provide long term immunity. This may be the only way out.

Plus the risk of long Covid with added long-term pressure on the NHS from these cases

Need evidence of this. So far seems self-reported and limited.

The government need to find a way to get unvaccinated people in their 30s and 40s to see the personal benefit of a vaccine in a sphere other than health and personal responsibility

No. The only factor should be individual choice. We live in a free society, government should not be coercive. If people seriously thought they could die, they would.

But stats of those hospitalised skew towards the obese and individuals with pre-existing conditions. These risk factors should be made clear to gently nudge at-risk people to make better decisions.

twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1359863858609999877?s=19
A thread about Covid becoming "endemic".

No healthy child in the UK has died from COVID.

We really need to move the debate on from this very simplistic view. The policy on vaccinating children should consider the risk of children sustaining organ damage from Covid or suffering from long Covid. It should take into account that children may wish to get vaccinated to reduce the risk of infecting more vulnerable family members, and the impact on a child's life of a parent developing long Covid.

No healthy child in the UK has died from COVID.

I am not even 100% sure that is true. I am sure data has been shared and a small number with no pre existing conditions died.

Six children with no known medical conditions in last 5 years apparently died.
So not entirely impossible

@MarshaBradyo

He didn’t have to back it

Yet he did

You’ll hear what you want but it’s getting pretty circular now. You could say yes I was wrong he did back July 19 lifting - to cabinet

Fat chance with some though.

No issue with that from me.

I just think Whitty will back whatever his political masters decide to do.

I think you need to read more widely than what the CMO says, there is a whole world of scientific opinion out there, most of which completely disagrees with the Johnson approach.

I do notice other scientific opinion.

I don’t do Twitter but do listen a lot to experts on R4. I’m always interested in hearing a range.

In terms of what we’ll be following I take interest in CMO and CSA as they heavily influence strategy through their advice / choice of strategy.

no one knows what kind of side effects these young people may get from contracting covid - the hospital numbers are continuing to rise & while the numbers have dropped - I suspect some may not be testing & school kids as a vector have dropped , but we have a couple of music festivals going on now & goodness knows what the result from that will be. Add on people travelling abroad for holidays.
As I pessimistic? Experience trumps optimism from the past year. Combine protestors & people who have not been vaccinated or had a very mild version mixing without masks? & Oh, that brilliant combination in the London tubes where they have cancelled them, People have been told they need to go back to work - so they are even more crowded - brilliant recipe

can I say again just because a child or adult hasn't died doesn't mean they are not very ill or don't have serious side effects
People should stop focusing on death as the only bad effect

25 children have died from covid in the UK, I can't remember if any did not have medical conditions.

And yet cases are falling ☺️.

@MarshaBradyo

He didn’t have to back it

Yet he did

You’ll hear what you want but it’s getting pretty circular now. You could say yes I was wrong he did back July 19 lifting - to cabinet

Fat chance with some though.

ok

I never said he didn't give formal assent to the July 19 lifting did I?

I said he
1 advised a lot of caution
2 never advocated herd immunity
3 expressed a lot of concern about the winter

You could back off with the straw man stuff maybe

@Bizawit

And yet cases are falling ☺️.

that's good.

and?

Unbelievable.

Doubling down on not being wrong. Tiresome.

You didn’t even know it happened a minute ago. I had to google it for you.

@MarshaBradyo

Unbelievable.

Doubling down on not being wrong. Tiresome.

You didn’t even know it happened a minute ago. I had to google it for you.

This is purely anecdotal, around here cases are rising fast, many people have CV, inc DD and her BF, difficulty in getting tests, deaths have risen, yet numbers of positives falling but the R number is stil around 1.2 to 1.4...

So shouldn't numbers still be going up?

I wish i wasn't so cynical!

btw R4 has some great science programs doesn't it.

@MarshaBradyo

Unbelievable.

Doubling down on not being wrong. Tiresome.

You didn’t even know it happened a minute ago. I had to google it for you.

But. Read what I wrote not what you imagine.

I didn't say Chris Whitty didn't give formal assent to the lifting.

Read for comprehension?

Why did you need me to google it? You said twice quote where he said this.

If you knew already why ask twice?

You haven't provided a single quote in which anything I have suggested was proved to be wrong.

Quote Whitty saying

• we shouldn't be cautious
• we won't have a difficult winter
• we will have herd immunity

He said he gave assent to the July 19th lifting in the broadcast to the nation. I watched that with careful interest.

If he said anything different in whatever it is you have read or seen then quote it.

If you can't then with respect can you be a bit more reasonable in discussion as my son is insisting I play Dungeons and Dragons with him and it's getting distracting. Thanks

@herecomesthsun

You haven't provided a single quote in which anything I have suggested was proved to be wrong.

Quote Whitty saying

• we shouldn't be cautious
• we won't have a difficult winter
• we will have herd immunity

He said he gave assent to the July 19th lifting in the broadcast to the nation. I watched that with careful interest.

If he said anything different in whatever it is you have read or seen then quote it.

If you can't then with respect can you be a bit more reasonable in discussion as my son is insisting I play Dungeons and Dragons with him and it's getting distracting. Thanks

I have provided his backing of July 19

If he wanted masks to stay or any other restrictions he could have said that instead.

We will have difficult winter that is WHY we are lifting now.

I haven’t said once he talked about herd immunity - as Delta makes this harder. But he is going for using summer to peak infections.

Caution is in built into our behaviour.

All got leaving you to do other stuff as pissing me off too.

The fact is we will see rise of cases pre Winter to natural peak - backed by Whitty.

Whitty on masks if anyone's interested

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57728218

So it is not a legal requirement to do this - but it is his opinion and advice.

@herecomesthsun

can I say again just because a child or adult hasn't died doesn't mean they are not very ill or don't have serious side effects
People should stop focusing on death as the only bad effect
Exactly this.

Yes indeed. After all paediatric Long COVID services have been established. This wouldn't happen if it wasn't an issue.
Also just because they had medical conditions didn't mean that their death wasn't brought forward. Thankfully some ECV children will be vaccinated but not all.

JCVI on Long Covid in kids:

Concerns have been raised regarding post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (long COVID) in children. Emerging large-scale epidemiological studies indicate that this risk is very low in children, especially in comparison with adults, and similar to the sequelae of other respiratory viral infections in children.

So the risk to kids is the same as they face when getting cold or flu.

In the words of the great Captain Kirk “you have a better plan? now’s the time”