SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

Seems like the only option we have now. Hopefully it will work.

@TheVampiresWife

we will be going on holiday, but to the UK

Why would this make you less likely to catch it?

1. travelling in a car as one household is very likely to safer - for us - than in a plane on a boat on a train etc

1. international mixing will mean any new variants get spread about - my DH is especially unhappy about the cost to society of this, ethically.

Not that it is very easy to travel abroad right now, for other reasons.

@annie335

Seems like the only option we have now. Hopefully it will work.

no it's not and um no it wouldn't

Most people will get Covid multiple times in their lifetime.

Any new variant that is more transmissible with become the dominant strain within months.

However reducing the number of times we get it, at least initially, and reducing the speed of introduction of random variants would be good things.

So what's your answer? More lockdowns?

DS working in a posh restaurant. He serves international customers so even if we can't go abroad they're still coming here. For politeness and tips germans, french. For zero tips and rudeness this year the Nigerians are top of the board 😂 usually it's the Americans

@herecomesthsun

However reducing the number of times we get it, at least initially, and reducing the speed of introduction of random variants would be good things.

But to achieve that you need a doors-welded-shut type lockdown. And you need to do it in every country in the world.

And then you never re-open again, because if you do open up the virus will spread even better due to immnuity waning and you end up with an even worse problem.

I said reducing not 100% never getting. We know how to reduce risks (see rest of thread)

@herecomesthsun

I said reducing not 100% never getting. We know how to reduce risks (see rest of thread)

Either R1 and it rises to the herd immunity threshold before decaying away.

There is no magic middle ground.

The SAGE advisor may be right about the impact and outcome, but I have my doubts it is a plan. Mr Johnson does not do detail and planning.

Johnson does do vague and woolly concepts that suit Telegraph readers and herd immunity would fit right in there

@TheKeatingFive

We’re at the stage where people hang on to Cumming’s view but dismiss CMO.

Bizarre 😆

Well, its not DC's veiw, its Johnsons, DC has the messages to prove BJ said x y or z - i find it bizzare that this is ignored.

What bj has said is pretty much in line with Trump, Bolzarano.

No one has dismissed the CMOs veiw but tbh its quite contradictory and also goes against pretty much what the RoW is doing.

Keeping people locked away isn't going to help anymore and the consequences of doing so are huge. Look at what's happening in NZ - children are suffering with respiratory illnesses because their immune systems haven't been exposed to germs/viruses.

@annie335

Keeping people locked away isn't going to help anymore and the consequences of doing so are huge. Look at what's happening in NZ - children are suffering with respiratory illnesses because their immune systems haven't been exposed to germs/viruses.

no one is suggesting keeping people locked away

**lol at seeing it

• it's not inevitable

• being careful does help

we will be going on holiday, but to the UK.

We won't be going to amusement parks.

We might go to the theatre but if so will go to an outdoor performance.

We might take the kids out but to an uncrowded beach or gardens.

We won't be holding indoor parties but will be meeting our neighbours for picnics if the weather is good.

We can manage fine like that. We are lucky in some respects that we have easy access to gardens, beaches and outdoor space.

And I will be getting shopping online and wearing a mask to the supermarket, if I go.

And yes, if a lot of us do this sort of thing, it will help. It will dampen peaks of any waves and it will ease the burden on health service. There will be fewer deaths and fewer people with long term symptoms**

And that is absolutely fair enough if you feel safer doing the above then that’s up to you.

Other people don’t want to live like that and that’s their choice too.

@TableFlowerss

**lol at seeing it

• it's not inevitable

• being careful does help

we will be going on holiday, but to the UK.

We won't be going to amusement parks.

We might go to the theatre but if so will go to an outdoor performance.

We might take the kids out but to an uncrowded beach or gardens.

We won't be holding indoor parties but will be meeting our neighbours for picnics if the weather is good.

We can manage fine like that. We are lucky in some respects that we have easy access to gardens, beaches and outdoor space.

And I will be getting shopping online and wearing a mask to the supermarket, if I go.

And yes, if a lot of us do this sort of thing, it will help. It will dampen peaks of any waves and it will ease the burden on health service. There will be fewer deaths and fewer people with long term symptoms**

And that is absolutely fair enough if you feel safer doing the above then that’s up to you.

Other people don’t want to live like that and that’s their choice too.

I agree with Tables

So what you’re suggesting OP is that we play lockdown bingo for the foreseeable until scientists find something to cure an endemic, mutating virus? And how long do you think that will take? Decades of this? There’d be nothing left to save.

Of course, we all have choices.

Just saying that these are our choices and it is possible to live just fine with them. Some of these could be options for other people, depending on circumstances.

And that there is a potential benefit for us (and some benefit for everyone else) in choosing some of these.

@Sittingonabench

So what you’re suggesting OP is that we play lockdown bingo for the foreseeable until scientists find something to cure an endemic, mutating virus? And how long do you think that will take? Decades of this? There’d be nothing left to save.

No, I never said I wanted a lockdown.

I am suggesting we adopt the policy of caution recommended by Chris Whitty - to avoid lockdowns.

And also saying that the glimmer of an idea of herd immunity bumbling around Johnson's brain is a false hope.

I don’t think people need you to say what to do. Obviously you can try but it rarely changes people’s behaviour to say do this on mn.

Although I know Whitty wearing of mask is key so I checked out Sainsbury’s as I shopped just now. Still really high compliance. This and train means I haven’t seen anything like free for all feared.

@starfro

there seems to be a scientific consensus that we won't reach a "herd immunity threshold " with delta

there is no magic herd immunity

also

#bloody thing is more of a reinfection risk which is going to complicate things further www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/phe-upgrade-delta-variants-risk-level-due-to-reinfection-risk

What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup

This

@MarshaBradyo

I don’t think people need you to say what to do. Obviously you can try but it rarely changes people’s behaviour to say do this on mn.

Although I know Whitty wearing of mask is key so I checked out Sainsbury’s as I shopped just now. Still really high compliance. This and train means I haven’t seen anything like free for all feared.

1 this was in the context of people saying there is nothing we can do, or these are our only options. Well, there are other options, these are some

2 it is great there was high compliance in Sansbos. But we are discussing the general point that a free for all would be a bad idea. Because pursuing this in the hope of herd immunity would be misguided.

But it’s this guy saying herd immunity not CMO?

So it’s not the strategy

The way to describe it is peak before winter.

So isn’t this just criticising something not being talked about by current key advisor - Whitty