SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

[quote Ylvamoon]@herecomesthsun you clearly need to get out a bit more. Wearing a mask and tin foil hat.
Seriously as said many times up thread, the timings are good, we can place restrictions for September if we'd need to.
think about it, it's summer, schools are closed, most people have a week or two holidays booked, vaccinations are available to all adults.[/quote]
nah thanks, I'll keep the mask (in indoor crowded places etc)

think about it, we're in a pandemic, why squander the benefits of the vaccines

I’m not surprised the personal attacks have started already here
Thank you for posting that link. Important to hear what members of SAGE are saying, even if it is hard to stomach for some people.

Is this not obvious though?.

One thing i wonder about, maybe I'll Google, is how long thehistorical plagues/pandemics lasted for. They wouldn't have had any ither choice in terms of vaccines to hope for herd immunity but then were they coronaviruses which seem to be doing a great job of mutating and evading immunity. I think we find ourselves in unusual times.

What else would you suggest? We're in a very different place now than last year due to vaccines. Covid will be here forever, always mutating. Everyone will be exposed at some point, it is unavoidable.

think about it, we're in a pandemic, why squander the benefits of the vaccines

What do you think the benefits of the vaccines are, exactly, if they’re not “keeping illness and deaths down so we can get back to our normal lives again without need of huge restrictions”?

@Westchesterarms

Should be noted that Prof West is very anti Conservative, is also on Independent SAGEs advisory group, and wants a zero covid policy. So he might not be totally objective?

What ridiculous think to say and what you say is a load of rot in any case. Do you think we shouldn't listen to anyone unless they support the Govts veiw? Perhaps someone like Whitty, a Johnson appointee?

Not a fan of Tory policy generally but can't really see a problem with this particular strategy...what else can the government do? We can't stay locked down forever

@musicalfrog

It's a sound policy tbh, I can't think of a better plan can you?

Yep. Offering vaccines to anyone age 12-17 who wants it.

I suspect that will come.

Medicines are approved on benefit risk balance for the individual, not the population. I trust the MHRA to get it right based on the evidence, let's leave it to the experts!

@GoldenOmber

think about it, we're in a pandemic, why squander the benefits of the vaccines

What do you think the benefits of the vaccines are, exactly, if they’re not “keeping illness and deaths down so we can get back to our normal lives again without need of huge restrictions”?

The vaccines have been a big help.

However, we need some other restrictions - eg sensible use of masks - alongside, to avoid as far as possible negative outcomes such as further large numbers of deaths going into the several 100s, huge pressure on the NHS for various reasons, possible future lockdown.

Keeping cases lowish over the summer will help reduce likelihood of all of these and keep life relatively normal otherwise.

So I would say, wear a mask in a supermarket etc

However, we need some other restrictions - eg sensible use of masks - alongside

Loads of people are still wearing masks, even in parts of the UK where it’s optional. What more would you like and for how long would you like it? Because most people signed up to things like masks and no international travel as short-term emergency measures until we got vaccines rolled out, not as a semi-permanent state of affairs for the vaccinated.

I thought your point was about increasing spread of delta in countries with lower vaccination rates which are really going to struggle. But it seems to be more about the vaccines not really being relevant?

Cases have been falling for the last 4 days. It would seem the strategy is already working.

@GoldenOmber

However, we need some other restrictions - eg sensible use of masks - alongside

Loads of people are still wearing masks, even in parts of the UK where it’s optional. What more would you like and for how long would you like it? Because most people signed up to things like masks and no international travel as short-term emergency measures until we got vaccines rolled out, not as a semi-permanent state of affairs for the vaccinated.

I thought your point was about increasing spread of delta in countries with lower vaccination rates which are really going to struggle. But it seems to be more about the vaccines not really being relevant?

The vaccines are relevant but we aren't likely to get enough immunity with just the vaccines without other measures as well.

Maybe we can dispense with the other measures eventually, but we haven't cracked it yet.

@Marguerite2000

Cases have been falling for the last 4 days. It would seem the strategy is already working.

tad too soon to say

@Fluffycloudland77

Is this not obvious though?.

Yes, I’d have thought so.

@Westchesterarms

Should be noted that Prof West is very anti Conservative, is also on Independent SAGEs advisory group, and wants a zero covid policy. So he might not be totally objective?

Instant political attacks on scientists, straight out of Trump's playbook.

@Marguerite2000

Cases have been falling for the last 4 days. It would seem the strategy is already working.

Talk about counting chickens before the eggs have hatched!

The vaccines are relevant but we aren't likely to get enough immunity with just the vaccines without other measures as well.

Maybe we can dispense with the other measures eventually, but we haven't cracked it yet.

Enough immunity for what?

Enough immunity to avoid mass death and overwhelmed NHS, the things we were trying to avoid in March last year, yes we absolutely have ‘cracked’ that. That is what vaccines have achieved.

If you want enough immunity to make the virus go away and not bother us any more, then no, we have not achieved that and we are not going to, no matter how many masks everyone wears to Sainsbury’s.

If your position is that we need to keep the restrictions that you prefer in place forever now to avoid all illness, then, well, good luck with campaigning for that but most of the country would not consider it a reasonable trade-off.

@herecomesthsun

*The vaccines are relevant but we aren't likely to get enough immunity with just the vaccines without other measures as well.

Maybe we can dispense with the other measures eventually, but we haven't cracked it yet.*

That makes no sense. There are only 2 ways to build immunity. Vaccines and getting Covid. So cowering behind your sofa or mask is not helping.

*Enough immunity for what?

Enough immunity to avoid mass death and overwhelmed NHS, the things we were trying to avoid in March last year, yes we absolutely have ‘cracked’ that. That is what vaccines have achieved.

If you want enough immunity to make the virus go away and not bother us any more, then no, we have not achieved that and we are not going to, no matter how many masks everyone wears to Sainsbury’s.

If your position is that we need to keep the restrictions that you prefer in place forever now to avoid all illness, then, well, good luck with campaigning for that but most of the country would not consider it a reasonable trade-off.*

Great points!

The trouble is we are not going to have sufficient immunity to prevent the NHS being 'almost but not quite' overwhelmed. This means high hospitalisations ongoing and many other health processes cancelled.

So we potentially don't have enough immunity by the look of things, no.

Isn’t this obvious though ? Sorry but what are people now missing.

*procedures not processes

“Restrictions forever to protect NHS capacity” is not going to be a compelling message to 95% of the population.

It is however if you want to make this a political battle, going to be a great platform for those who want it gutted and privatised. “Look at all those countries returning to freedom! Alas, we here must keep nightclubs closed forever to protect our wonderful NHS which just can’t cope otherwise. No, there’s no other option. No, vaccines aren’t really relevant. Such a shame but we all love our NHS heroes!!” It would be a great way to turn the public against the NHS as an institution.