Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

It’s high for summer I’ll agree.

But, without sounding too much like Jeremy Clarkson, people will need to think hard about how many deaths are acceptable in the winter. Personally, if we have no restrictions, I think

World beating vaccination. Gut we can't manage to vaccinate teens.

And there are reasons for that! And Germany are not routinely vaccinating over 12s despite what the Health Minister may have said today. That may change in next few days.......

Sturgeon has implied that over 16s will be vaccinated in Scotland. That may mean JVCI are going to change recommendation.

I suspect its a fine balance. Why should teens step up to protect adults who chose not to get vaccinated (not those who are genuinely medically exampt).

As Germany is triple vaccinating anyone who had AZ or j&j both similar types vaccine thought to be less efficient than pfizer/moderna

We really don't know much yet. All vaccines are excellent bit AZ has continually had bad press and much of it has never been warranted. All do an excellent job of stopping people dying and I don't think we could have imagined we would be so fortunate on the vaccine front a year ago......

Germany and Netherlands are also holding off with vaccinating healthy teens (for good reasons).

Many scientists advocating for vaccinating teenagers keep referring to the incomplete and aggregated CDC (US) data while ignoring information from Israel. The latter makes the choice for healthy boys much less straight forward.

FWIW, I think all the JCVI recommendations so far have been thoughtful and balanced. They may have been too prescriptive on the age based vaccinations (e.g. we could have accelerated vaccine roll outs to under 50s back in April instead of chasing hesitant 50s+) but in general their approach (e.g. spacing out doses) and clear prioritisation saved many lives.

Nicola Sturgeon says that JCVI about to announce vaccines for 16&17 yo across UK

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/all-over-16s-in-uk-set-to-be-approved-for-covid-vaccination-nicola-sturgeon-reveals_uk_61094f09e4b038cedb3829b7?fbclid=IwAR2RQ26JThmUNzrCRyQmaaoJQS5LefxgTNvigj44HbVMCYmUhygmfMm395s

Some scientists previously suggested that the risk of myocarditis for healthy boys can be significantly reduced by extending the gap between doses. The vast majority of cases in the US and Israel were occurring after the second vaccination. Both countries meticulously stuck to the three weeks gap.

I am wondering whether the EU data confirmed this hypothesis so JCVI got comfortable with recommending the "go ahead".

I’ve appreciated JCVI decisions too.

And other decisions that were made when not all other countries were. Over 65 for example. We’ve held and it was correct.

In the Republic of Ireland they are already vaccinating 16 & 17 year olds (there have been long queues for first doses at walk in centres over what is a Bank Holiday W/E here) and now saying they are going to start vaccinating 12-15 year olds with Pfizer/Moderna hopefully all having 1 dose prior to returning to school at end of August.

Anyone know what impact this will have on our “deaths per million” tally? I don’t know what population number they’re using currently, but I’m guessing after Thursday it’ll be a higher population and therefore a lower per million rate?

Next to no difference. ONS info:
The population of the UK at mid-year 2020 was estimated to be 67.1 million, an increase of about 284,000 (0.4%) since mid-year 2019.

No idea how they got to that, I would suspect 72m is more accurate.

@MidtoLon

In the Republic of Ireland they are already vaccinating 16 & 17 year olds (there have been long queues for first doses at walk in centres over what is a Bank Holiday W/E here) and now saying they are going to start vaccinating 12-15 year olds with Pfizer/Moderna hopefully all having 1 dose prior to returning to school at end of August.

Their current vaccination is impressive - they overtook NI in terms of adults fully vaccinated over the weekend (76% vs 72%).

BBC ran a story on the growth of cases in Lincoln. Unsurprisingly, the outbreak was linked to a nightclub:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-58069324

I am guessing other LAs that managed to avoid the Euro 2020 wave are likely to see similar spikes in cases. I was previously concerned about nightlife re-opening but I'm now thinking that we might as well deal with it in August and, hopefully, come out on the other side sooner rather than later.

Re: vaccinate levels in NI vs Ireland

UK is taking a calculated decision not to reduce the gap between two doses for younger population. I am guessing JCVI are more worried about the autumn-winter period and feel extra few percentage points of vaccine efficacy will be worth it in the long run.

We have got vaccine supply and we could have accelerated second doses if JCVI'd felt it was the right thing to do.

Ireland has gone for 4 week spacing so was always likely to catch up. Double vaccination required for entry to indoor settings was a bit of a motivator.

Told you DS went clubbing in Lincoln...

@MRex

Next to no difference. ONS info: The population of the UK at mid-year 2020 was estimated to be 67.1 million, an increase of about 284,000 (0.4%) since mid-year 2019.

No idea how they got to that, I would suspect 72m is more accurate.

Thanks. Worldometers shows 68.2m I think.

Told you DS went clubbing in Lincoln...

Really? I missed that, Piggy. Hope he was in a different place.

This is the maths of cases and big events; there were always going to be some superspreaders because Covid has a high K factor. If it wasn't Lincoln then it would be another place, in fact it certainly was a few places because the additional cases slowed the decline by a significant amount, possibly a few thousand per day. There will be more to come, but when the total number of additional infections stays low, it looks manageable.

Just delurking to ask a data question. On the gov dashboard there is a lovely square grid of percentages single and double jabbed. I understood that it gives the percentage of the adult population (ie over 18)

I’ve been today with a 16yo to a walk in centre because she lives with a CEV parent. Will she feature in tomorrow’s number? Or are they sophisticated enough to weed her out of the vaccination numbers?

I know of a fair few 16-17 yos who are jabbed now especially since they dropped the general age to 17 and 9 months. Have they revised the adult population number down to match or could we go over 100%? (I know we won’t but in theory!)

@wintertravel1980

Told you DS went clubbing in Lincoln...

Really? I missed that, Piggy. Hope he was in a different place.

So do I, given the council won't name the club, which doesn't seem very sensible for public health. Surely they ought to say anyone who was there should get a test?? Anyway, he will find out through jungle drums.

Two of his friends have definitely taken themselves off for tests since their night out.

Hello data people!

Just a quick one - when are we expecting to see case rates grow after 19th July lifting? It’s been over two weeks and the case numbers are still falling - reason to be optimistic?

@VanGoSunflowers

Hello data people!

Just a quick one - when are we expecting to see case rates grow after 19th July lifting? It’s been over two weeks and the case numbers are still falling - reason to be optimistic?

Nightclubs impact should have already fed into figures as there have been 4 infection cycles since opening. I would expect regular outbreaks through the summer because nightclubs are high risk environments for transmission, but they are each individually small enough to be local outbreaks.

I world personally next expect rises at the end of September when the schools have been back for a few weeks and we get a cold dry snap of weather. It might be delayed if there is enough rhinovirus about to prevent kids catching covid for a few weeks.

MSM reporting long Covid in children “rare” - the study and reporting criticised by Deepti Gurdasani:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1422800835562647554.html?fbclid=IwAR3_8OKHCYCWyheWTPbbenLxhVPFGWCx8MGl-9Xqr97aupaVdv9B41Be9AE

the study and reporting criticised by Deepti Gurdasani

Well whadda surprise.