Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The study had limitations which were acknowledged in the study. Also, attempting to resolve some of those limitations, such as the one about brain fog could well have created a serious of new, and I suspect, bigger problems in the study. I think what Gurdasani is arguing is that in case people over interpret the study without considering the limitations, the study shouldn’t exist. Kind of like cancel culture for academic papers. She even shoehorns in “gaslit”.

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-study-looking-at-long-lasting-symptoms-from-covid-19-in-children/

There will be more to come

Presumably though in smaller and smaller communities, so the overall figure will continue to fall? We have to assume that large "clubbing" centres would've had their super spreaders in them and it'll now only be the smaller towns that have manage to avoid them.

Based on some discussion I've seen on Twitter, some of limitations were around the way the Zoe app was directing people to a specific questionnaire on long covid - they had to select they are feeling well to get to the extra questions but most people with long covid would not be feeling well so never got to answer the questions. I remember answering the long covid study too but I've never had covid as far as I know.

Zoe study might not be perfect but it is generally consistent with observational evidence that the percentage of true long Covid cases in children appears low. I know many children who had Covid over past 12 months. I do not know a single case IRL where symptoms lasted for longer than 12 weeks. I have no doubts such cases exist and need to be taken seriously - but 10%+ numbers often quoted by the zero Covid proponents simply do not appear credible.

This isn't meant to sound chippy so apologies if it does, but how many children and teens do you know?

I do think it will take a while for these numbers to come through properly. It can take a while until you realise you are still suffering. Lots of asymptomatic kids who didn't even know they had covid may now have 'mystery viruses'.

I don't think we will know for ages (if at all if ME is anything to go by).

But, anecdotally, we definitely have quite a few students just at my school who have not recovered well from covid. Of course, that will probably still be lower than 10% of those who have had it. But one is almost bedbound several months after testing positive.

Anecdotally I know far more children who are suffering long term effects purely from the impact of lockdown, excess weight, lower fitness impacting a significant proportion, anecdotes on this really isn't helpful at all, there simply isn't sufficient data for any of us to judge from anecdotes.

I don't think a school of 1500 is particularly anecdotal though fred. I can't comment on the fitness but haven't seen the excess weight in our students (although don't dispute it will be true for many) . What I have seen (largely white , mc school) is a rise in various anxiety issues to do with school attendance, a rise in anxiety amongst children/families with pre existing health condition , many children with covid of varying degrees of mildness / symptoms, and several students who have not fully recovered from covid.

There are some difficulties in studying long COVID around matching controls. One issue is that we can’t easily be sure who has actually had COVID since some people are never symptomatic. The other is that everyone has had significant stresses put on their health due to the other challenges around COVID, aside from the disease itself. A lot of the symptoms reported for long covid happen to be similar to those caused by stress, anxiety and depression. It doesn’t mean they aren’t real or aren’t caused by covid - it just makes for a much more challenging time to interpret what is going on! Also, it doesn’t look like it is a single syndrome either as there are different symptoms clusters. I don’t find the existence of long covid surprising or unexpected since people are being infected with a novel virus and we know of long lasting effects of many other viral illnesses especially when
first encountered. I agree that even if it’s a small fraction of those infected then multiplying that by large numbers of infections isn’t something to ignore. Also ME was mentioned and there is a theory that ME may be caused by people being unfortunate enough to encounter viruses for the first time in adulthood. However I think we should all have good faith that everyone just wants what is best for children and right now it just isn’t clear what that is!

Related I thought this was a good article: www.theinsight.org/p/novelty-means-severity-the-key-to

That's a very thoughtful and measured post richard.

I sometimes ponder whether I have long covid but have never had a positive diagnosis of covid : so I become one of those 'lost people' with symptoms akin to various post viral stuff...

Long interview with the Gt Ormond Street medic leading the child long Covid study from R4’s Medicine Now last night, discusses issues such as how to separate out lockdown effects:

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000ycx6

That was a good interview thanks @JanFebAnyMonth Highly recommend anyone to listen to it.

Thing is, even the "rare" 2% quoted in the study is a lot of children with long Covid.
It is one child in a small primary school, 30 in a school the size of Piggy's.

And the study was carried out pre-delta and pre “Freedom Day”

New data from Imperial on Delta. Double vaxxed 3 times less likely to test positive and also less likely to transmit due to lower viral load.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

@EducatingArti Absolutely. Although we also need to take into account that within that, say, 2% a lot of the long covid may actually be still fairly short lived under current working definitions.

So, I think we have now officially fallen to Lincoln effect. DS2 (17) tested positive having shared a room / car all week with DS1 whilst on our hol in Barnard Castle ( true story). DS1 had just returned from escapades in Lincoln. Watch out also for spike in Halifax as they all went there too. Sorry Halifax...

Trying to derive dry humour from this....

DS2 (17) tested positive having shared a room / car all week with DS1 whilst on our hol in Barnard Castle ( true story).

Oh Piggy.... it would have been very funny if it had not been so close to home.

Really hope your DS2 will have a mild case and not pass it on to anyone else!

We watched the 1st Hobbit film last night and Gollum SO reminds me of Cummings.

Thanks winter.

@herecomesthsun

We watched the 1st Hobbit film last night and Gollum SO reminds me of Cummings.

Cummings always makes me think of Worm Tongue

Spec date graph for England -slight uptick from yesterday and Monday as compared with this time last week; but some way down of course against the more recent peaks.

From a cases perspective the 20 councils with the highest rates in England (based on a three day lag) and the 20 with the lowest. The latter includes Blackburn.

Fascinating re Blackburn.

Then rates for each Council by English region, and sorted highest to low most recent 7 day rate within the region.

East of England