Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

East Midlands

Inner London

Outer London

North East

North West

South East

South West

West Midlands

Yorkshire and the Humber

Wow some of those places have gone from over 1000 to around 300 in 2 weeks. How

An awful lot of areas has sky high case rates in the last week of school. This does rather fit with the reports of terrible attendance in schools in July. Would need to see age breakdowns of course.

I have a theory that I don’t even know how to begin to evidence tbh.

I know that the effect from vaccinations will be becoming ever more pronounced but I’m also wondering if the so-called ‘pingdemic’ has had a notable effect on the decline in case numbers (and consequently hospital and fatality numbers). If a significant proportion of people isolated when pinged by the app (I read figures of >1 million at one point) then maybe that’s what tipped us back into a downward trend.

Pure supposition but it would be an issue if that’s what it was because so many have deleted the app I suspect it would take something dramatic to get them back on board.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@EducatingArti Absolutely. Although we also need to take into account that within that, say, 2% a lot of the long covid may actually be still fairly short lived under current working definitions.[/quote]
This may be true or not, we don't know yet but even 4 to 6 months of illness can really scupper learning for an entire school year an could have a major effect on exams/qualifications for some children.

It is interesting as I live on the borders of 2 (Epsom and Ewell and Sutton) and both were at 539 and 514 two weeks ago and now both are 222.

Schools though in these two finished at different times - around here High Schools varied between the 9th to the 23rd (and these were dates set the 9th High School goes for longer school days longer holidays) and Primaries varied between the 16th to the 23rd.

A couple of local High Schools were hit with closures and some werent hit at all - yet both are following the exact same trajectory

@JanFebAnyMonth

Fascinating re Blackburn.

And Swale!

I just don’t understand. I haven’t known anyone to have Covid the entire pandemic. I now know at least 20 - all parts of the country. Caught from Wembley, school, festivals, pubs and holidays. All different types of people - some working out to the house, some from home. All different ages.

Yes @Cornettoninja, at least one newspaper (? maybe not, might have been the DM!) did refer to the “pingdemic” as lockdown by the backdoor. And it doesn’t matter that much whether they have the app or not in 12 days’ time anyway.

Did I hear that there was a rise of 7,000 cases day on day today? (Just been out walking)

@Cornettoninja

I have a theory that I don’t even know how to begin to evidence tbh.

I know that the effect from vaccinations will be becoming ever more pronounced but I’m also wondering if the so-called ‘pingdemic’ has had a notable effect on the decline in case numbers (and consequently hospital and fatality numbers). If a significant proportion of people isolated when pinged by the app (I read figures of >1 million at one point) then maybe that’s what tipped us back into a downward trend.

Pure supposition but it would be an issue if that’s what it was because so many have deleted the app I suspect it would take something dramatic to get them back on board.

It's interesting about deleting the app - I heard a figure on the BBC last week, I think around 300,000, of new downloads for it that week. It's quite surprising to think so many who haven't had the app all through this time have now downloaded it. Maybe people are taking more personal responsibility and wanting to protect their family and friends now that restrictions are gone? Obviously we don't know how many deleted the app or deactivated the tracking function so overall its use has probably still gone down.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Did I hear that there was a rise of 7,000 cases day on day today? (Just been out walking)

A rise of 1578 from a week ago.

A bit concerning, but we’ll have to wait and see the trend.

I think it’s largely academic until mid September now. The next wave needs to hit some sort of immunity barrier, otherwise it’s going to be a long winter.

If we can keep it to 20,000-30,000/day I think you’d see numbers in hospital slowly reducing.

England are now 2.2% down for the week, number in hospital, with 3 days to go.

There are always high jumps between numbers reported on Tuesdays and Wednesday.

The numbers reported today are up on prior Wednesday which shows cases are now increasing (in line with boys3 dates by specimen graphs). The uptick is driven by LAs who managed to avoid the Euro 2020 wave (e.g. Lincoln, Exeter, etc).

I am guessing every single local authority will have to go through the summer wave until cases stabilise and, hopefully, start falling again.

I think you’d probably see 10% falls per week at current infection levels. So by mid-Sept we should be somewhere down to 3000-3500 in England. It’s not great. I would have preferred sub 1000, but alas people don’t like vaccines.

Anybody know how the ups and downs correlate with vaccine uptake in those areas? Where I am is at 73.7% adults double vaccinated, and rates look like they’ve dropped 2/3 in a fortnight. Are rates dropping just as quickly in places with lower uptake?

So Newham has the lowest uptake of two doses and it’s rates are dropping slower but they were never that high to begin with