Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

No expert but surely heavy humid air makes it fall quicker?
It's easier for particles to move through cleaner dry air?

I imagine as our jabs wear off in six months from both jabs, rates will be go up again and boosters will help keeping older folks out of hospital.. But younger people will get ill.

@Panickingpavlova they wear off after 6 months.....?

@Panickingpavlova - It's fine to speculate, but please would you moderate how you express that on the Data thread. There is not at this time evidence that immunity wanes within 6 months; a small reduction in antibodies may be occurring, but the evidence may also be pointing more to the higher viral load of new variants. In this thread at least we could wait for evidence before declaring facts. If jabs did wear off then younger people would get boosters too.

Mrex I was going on isreal and people becoming ill again because they thought the vaccine was wearing off.

Unfortunately this is an open thread and you can't ask people to moderate anything on the data thread. You can report me to mumsnet if you like for my un self moderated post.

The evidence from Oxford University suggests that antibody levels remain elevated from baseline for at least one year following a single dose of AZ.

Bridey

Pfxier said it looks like they might be wearing off, flu vaccine does as well.

We just don't know.

PHE has recently published a study confirming that a longer interval between the two mRNA doses indeed increases vaccine efficacy in the long run.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.26.21261140v1

Israel has rolled out Pfizer with the 3 week gap (as recommended by the manufacturer) which might have influenced the end result. UK extended the interval.

Ongoing SIREN study suggests that immunity from vaccines and prior infections may be long lasting - 6 months+ (although we are seeing breakthroughs in both cases).

Article about today’s change to the NHS app meaning contacts for the 48 hrs prior to a positive test are “pinged”, rather than the previous five* days’ worth - contains lots of useful stats on the app’s use and estimated effects:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58062180

*nope I had no idea it worked on five days worth of contacts, and have no idea why they made this different to manual T&T. Were we ever told this when the app was launched??

@Panickingpavlova

Mrex I was going on isreal and people becoming ill again because they thought the vaccine was wearing off.

Unfortunately this is an open thread and you can't ask people to moderate anything on the data thread. You can report me to mumsnet if you like for my un self moderated post.

It’s how it is written though… ‘might wear off in 6 months’ is very different to ‘wear off in 6 months’.

As it’s a data thread people tend to post things that they then back up with a link / the data behind it. Randomly just saying ‘jabs wear off in 6 months’, when no one knows if that is correct, isn’t helpful.

@Panickingpavlova

Mrex I was going on isreal and people becoming ill again because they thought the vaccine was wearing off.

Unfortunately this is an open thread and you can't ask people to moderate anything on the data thread. You can report me to mumsnet if you like for my un self moderated post.

That may not be the case as they had been interpreting the data incorrectly

mobile.twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1420061874327072773

Were we ever told this when the app was launched??

We were told that the app uses different criteria for distance (e.g. it will ping people who were further than 2 meters away in case of prolonged contacts) but I do not remember any references to the 5 day "look back". My understanding is it only applies to asymptomatic cases but this approach still sounds way overconservative.

My understanding is it only applies to asymptomatic cases but this approach still sounds way overconservative

insanely, especially if you consider many (most?) asymptomatic cases at point of test are pre-symptoms.

@Panickingpavlova

Mrex I was going on isreal and people becoming ill again because they thought the vaccine was wearing off.

Unfortunately this is an open thread and you can't ask people to moderate anything on the data thread. You can report me to mumsnet if you like for my un self moderated post.

You're factually challenged:

1. It's Israel.
2. If people were becoming ill based on thinking a vaccine is wearing off, then that would be a psychological illness. If you mean actual infections then present the statistics, they clearly aren't what you think and seemingly were not correct.
3. The figures on Israel, even as they are, relate to only one of 3 vaccines used in the UK, all of which have been given to the majority with a longer dosing interval.
4. I can ask people anything I like. If I want to point out your errors, then I'll do that.

It's rather strange not to just agree to flag any other speculative guesses as speculation, for reference it makes your motives look suspect.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Article about today’s change to the NHS app meaning contacts for the 48 hrs prior to a positive test are “pinged”, rather than the previous five* days’ worth - contains lots of useful stats on the app’s use and estimated effects:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58062180

*nope I had no idea it worked on five days worth of contacts, and have no idea why they made this different to manual T&T. Were we ever told this when the app was launched??

Agree I'd not seen that written anywhere. It didn't explain why it's 5 days prior even if you have symptoms either. That Chinese study of Delta had 2.9 days from exposure to infectivity and 3.7 days to symptoms; so a test result could be back within 24 hours but the first 3 days the person wasn't infectious. 5 days is catching everyone you came into contact with who might have been exposed at the same time for backwards tracing, but also may include people you saw before you were even exposed as well as people before you could possibly be infectious. It does explain why some people were getting pinged so "late" though.

And delta wasn’t around when the app was designed.

Does anyone know if the vaccine is likely to work for longer in younger people due to generally stronger immune systems? I did wonder if that is possibly the case and therefore even more reason to focus boosters on the elderly and CV/CEV?

@RainbowCrayons I've seen a paper which suggested it was more likely to wear off faster in the old, it was looking at blood antibody levels so not real world infection rates. I suspect it was linked to off here, I'm working now but will have a dig around to see if I can find it again later.

Thanks! I suppose fewer young people were vaccinated early on to give us the data but I wonder if there is data from doctors and nurses because I can see logically how their immunity may not fall despite dec/jan vaccinations while potentially an elderly person with underlying conditions may well do. It fits with the idea of only giving boosters to the groups 1-9 but then again I'm not sure the government have it as well planned as that!

I had a look and all the references in official NHS releases and Matt Hancock’s words were to it alerting people who’d been a close contact “in the last few days”. Which I guess we all took to mean the last 48 hours, wrongly we now know. Hmmm.

If I remember correctly the UK vaccination programme started in early December. The change to a 12 week gap didn't come in until the end of December. So there were a cohort of people who were fully vaccinated last year and are now over six months after their second dose. You'd expect that if there was any dramatic fall in immunity you'd see an effect in this group. Do we have any figures for that?

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

Weekly total in hospital in England to 31st July was +635, aka +14%.

Previous weeks:
to 10th: +45%
to 17th: +42%
to 24th: +30%

Currently sat at +0% for the week so far.

Could be a drop in patients in England for the week.

Dashboard showing a toenail into green for admissions today - down by 0.4% 🥳

Unfortunately looks as if the deaths from the peak are coming through now, although a silver lining is they will surely drop in a few days too.

@Tupla

If I remember correctly the UK vaccination programme started in early December. The change to a 12 week gap didn't come in until the end of December. So there were a cohort of people who were fully vaccinated last year and are now over six months after their second dose. You'd expect that if there was any dramatic fall in immunity you'd see an effect in this group. Do we have any figures for that?

The Tories don’t care.

They have doses. They want good publicity. They will start putting them into whoever’s arm will take it.

They’ll add a new metric to the dashboard for tripled vaccinated, and proclaim they are number 1 in the world with triple vaccinated people.

World beating vaccination. Gut we can't manage to vaccinate teens.
Correct me if I'm wrong haven't we used as % AZ more?

As Germany is triple vaccinating anyone who had AZ or j&j both similar types vaccine thought to be less efficient than pfizer/moderna
Its all gone quiet on novavax.
138 deaths today seems high.

Tuesdays are always high 131 last week 96 the week before often follows lower Weekend/Monday

It also follows that deaths are sadly still in the peak - cases dropped first, hospitalisations next then deaths last