Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Keep thinking, why hasn’t Boris et al been out celebrating the fall in cases, you’d think they would, is there something they know that we don’t?

Two things occur to me, one logical and sensible:
1 they don’t want to make people think they don’t need to get vaccinated/second jabbed;

2 It is behavioural and they don’t want to admit that people are still scared and are not flocking back to the high street etc (viz. the mobility graphs we’ve seen which show little change post-19th)

I doubt they’re celebrating as who can say for certain what will happen over next few weeks.

I’m very pleased cases are lower but I’d say let’s see what happens

As I said before, I cannot see a mechanism where lower compliance in testing is so completely synchronous across the country and at such a continuous rate that it specifically offsets the appropriate falls.

Remember if there's lower testing compliance there would have to be an increase in cases (or testing and isolation is a completely pointless task that has been harming for nothing) which means there would have to be more drops in compliance to offset the increase etc.

Plotting hospitalisation vs age-adjusted risk of cases would be interesting I think, but I don't have the time sadly.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Keep thinking, why hasn’t Boris et al been out celebrating the fall in cases, you’d think they would, is there something they know that we don’t?

Two things occur to me, one logical and sensible:
1 they don’t want to make people think they don’t need to get vaccinated/second jabbed;

2 It is behavioural and they don’t want to admit that people are still scared and are not flocking back to the high street etc (viz. the mobility graphs we’ve seen which show little change post-19th)

3 They don't believe the data and are rummaging down the back of the sofa for missing cases.

Sorry, should also say
3 the drops are not real.

Just seen this posted onParents United Page, is it correct? Can’t see anything on the dashboard:

“Some manipulation of the Case numbers going on again today. It looks like the case numbers going back at least as far as the 16th July have been revised downwards. On some days by many thousands.”

[quote QueenStromba]Here's an updated deaths versus hospitalisations with seven day lag. Hospitalisations are no longer closely following cases which adds to the argument that the drop in cases isn't entirely genuine.

twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1420049587465826311?s=20[/quote]
Couldn't that be illustrative of covid spreading in hospitals rather than the community though?

Of course, calling any revisions “manipulation” is a value judgement and hopefully untrue!

Disappointing case figures today ☹️☹️

Crosspost @QueenStromba!

Have they done a revision of the positive LFTs followed by a positive PCR? I've been waiting for that because I don't think there's been one for a while.

Does anyone know how the hospitalisation numbers are calculated? Do they include patients with a clinical diagnosis of covid and a negative test? If so, is that data available anywhere?

One explanation for the drops could be a new variant that's been seeded around the country from Wembley/Wimbledon/festivals that gives a false negative on some PCR tests (we've seen this already in some variants such as alpha where the S gene fails to amplify).

Other than the S gene, the genes that are targeted are pretty stable as mutations in these genes would usually be deleterious for the virus but the ability to evade the test would be a massive advantage since a negative test releases people back into circulation.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Sorry, should also say 3 the drops are not real.

Just seen this posted onParents United Page, is it correct? Can’t see anything on the dashboard:

“Some manipulation of the Case numbers going on again today. It looks like the case numbers going back at least as far as the 16th July have been revised downwards. On some days by many thousands.”

twitter.com/RP131/status/1420781700448243714?s=20

Dr Duncan Robertson comments on positivity:
mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1420765010708500483

"Over one in three PCR tests for 10-19 year olds males is positive.

This is a very large percentage and indicates that not enough testing is being done in this age group

So, we can infer that the case detections for 10-19 year olds is significantly undercounted.

In fact, test positivity is in excess of 10% in all age groups between 5 and 80.

So, not enough testing is being performed to generate accurate data on cases.

But the 10-19 year old age group stands out here. For females 3/10 tests are positive, and this figure is increasing"

Thanks @mrex, I was thinking his feed would be the place to go. However I don’t see how it helps in this case? I may well be missing something though.

@lonelyplanet wow!!

Yep. Knew it was all too good to be true.

Very nervous about hospitalisations now.

What may be interesting is to compare week on week variances between Wednesday July 21 and Wednesday July 28 based on the date of specimen (England only). People infected on Saturday are likely to test positive on Wed (following the Euro 2020 pattern). Wed July 21 will be the "clean" starting point (ex Euro). Wed July 28 will include the first impact of re-opening

@wintertravel1980

this looks at today and then each of the the three previous Thursday reporting.

Hence Day-1 for reporting today is yesterday, Wednesday 28th; Day-2 is Tuesday 27th, and so on.

Today 6449 cases were added for yesterday, a relatively small (7%) fall as compared with the first day of reporting for Wednesday last week (6935 cases); but a considerable decline as compared with cases reported on July 15th for Wednesday 14th (11932); and almost identical to that reported for Wednesday 7th on Thursday 8th (6466)

Day-2 relates to Tuesdays, and is the two day total

Day-3 relates to Mondays, reflecting the 3 day total

Day-4 relates to Sundays, reflecting the 4 day total

So, we can infer that the case detections for 10-19 year olds is significantly undercounted

But is it more or less undercounted than in previous times? We know that positive tests undercount, and we must surely know that they undercount differently in different groups - not least because symptoms are different in different groups and symptoms are required for a test.

In that age group they are likely to be used to doing LFTs and may well do one if they have minor/hay fever symptoms therefore would only get a PCR if the LFT is positive. That's what all of DD's uni cohort did. Few log negative tests, so possit

Sorry-
So positivity is likely to be higher.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Sorry, should also say 3 the drops are not real.

Just seen this posted onParents United Page, is it correct? Can’t see anything on the dashboard:

“Some manipulation of the Case numbers going on again today. It looks like the case numbers going back at least as far as the 16th July have been revised downwards. On some days by many thousands.”

jan this shows for England, the change in case numbers for

• the past 6 days (26,858 cases added), and
• for cases with spec dates from 1st April to 22nd July,

So yes the odd daily downward revision of very low single digit cases between 1st April and 22nd July, but overall a net addition of 168
cases.

Finally, although not graphed, there was a net addition of 15 pre-dating 1st April (2021).

Thanks a lot, boys3! Can we please have these charts running for a few days? They are great:).

Day-1 comparisons between this and the prior week show that the drop in cases might be slowing down. However, the trend is still down which is good.

In light of the Euros getting many mentions regarding spread, maybe it's worth remembering Eid al Adha was celebrated around 20th July; the earlier Eid al Fitr involved a lot of online prayers, but coming straight after "Freedom Day", this latest one naturally saw more personal mingling

I'm just wondering if this too might cause a temporary bump?

@boys3

What may be interesting is to compare week on week variances between Wednesday July 21 and Wednesday July 28 based on the date of specimen (England only). People infected on Saturday are likely to test positive on Wed (following the Euro 2020 pattern). Wed July 21 will be the "clean" starting point (ex Euro). Wed July 28 will include the first impact of re-opening

@wintertravel1980

this looks at today and then each of the the three previous Thursday reporting.

Hence Day-1 for reporting today is yesterday, Wednesday 28th; Day-2 is Tuesday 27th, and so on.

Today 6449 cases were added for yesterday, a relatively small (7%) fall as compared with the first day of reporting for Wednesday last week (6935 cases); but a considerable decline as compared with cases reported on July 15th for Wednesday 14th (11932); and almost identical to that reported for Wednesday 7th on Thursday 8th (6466)

Day-2 relates to Tuesdays, and is the two day total

Day-3 relates to Mondays, reflecting the 3 day total

Day-4 relates to Sundays, reflecting the 4 day total

This is so helpful!!

@sirfredfredgeorge

So, we can infer that the case detections for 10-19 year olds is significantly undercounted

But is it more or less undercounted than in previous times? We know that positive tests undercount, and we must surely know that they undercount differently in different groups - not least because symptoms are different in different groups and symptoms are required for a test.

Not if you live in certain areas or have a positive LFT. Kids were doing loads of LFTs previously. Most have stopped.