Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

If my 70 something year old in laws are anything to go by they have been testing with LFTs anytime they go out to meet anyone but didn't know they were supposed to report it.... I'm sure they are not alone.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@sirfredfredgeorge indeed! I’ve read something yesterday where someone was advocating that we start testing for flu a/b too.[/quote]
I’d be all in favour of mass testing for Flu a/b if there was any chance that MN posters would stop saying “I’m 87 and I’ve only ever had flu once and I was unable to leave my bed for a week and nearly starved to death because that’s what actual flu is like so you can’t possibly have flu if you are able to open your eyes”.

@YouthfulIndiscretion hahaha. To be honest I absolutely did not realise that most flu infections are asymptomatic and would not have ready about studies like this if it were not for covid www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext

To be honest I absolutely did not realise that most flu infections are asymptomatic

I'm sure if you really thought about it, you would've realised that an infectious disease can't only be completely debilitating unless it sits around not harming you for ages (like e.g. HIV) as otherwise it couldn't possibly spread. But as Youthful says that never fits the narrative.

Kids were doing loads of LFTs previously

Wasn't it less than 10% reporting based on twice a week? And do you not think there would still be a bias towards female students and possibly younger age groups - or particular parental demographics, rather than being a true representative sample?

An interesting thread from James Ward on why we may be seeing first signals of July 19th re-opening in today's data:

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1420823811415490567

@sirfredfredgeorge

To be honest I absolutely did not realise that most flu infections are asymptomatic

I'm sure if you really thought about it, you would've realised that an infectious disease can't only be completely debilitating unless it sits around not harming you for ages (like e.g. HIV) as otherwise it couldn't possibly spread. But as Youthful says that never fits the narrative.

Quite possibly I would have but I didn’t spend much time thinking about infectious diseases in the before times.

why we may be seeing first signals of July 19th re-opening in today's data

It's also now that all the people isolating from the peaks are back out again, and have had time to be infected, even if just out to the pub - or church whist drive.

The old fave vaccination uptake by age group shown again on the news earlier, just before the JVT clip.

These are the council areas with the biggest differential (based on the NHS weekly stats file published this afternoon) in terms of 18-24 first dose uptake exceeding uptake in the 25-29s; across England just over 200 councils have a greater take up in the 18-24s than 25-29s.

The first 7 are all University towns / cities; then slightly further on Exeter appears.

I'm less convinced about South Holland, Rugby and Boston hosting a hitherto unknown university(ies).

Bit of a mish mash thereafter. Eden appears although its take up rate in both age groups is over 75%, and in the top ten councils in England, quite why slightly more 18-24s in Eden have taken it up.....??

at the other end - Councils with the biggest gap the other way.

Mainly London Boroughs, and for the majority take up rates pretty dire in both groups.

then these are the MSOA level stats for Norwich and Charnwood.

I do wonder about the NIMS pop figure both council's MSOAs with the word university in them.

Bigger (into the low 70s) uptake in the Norwich MSOAs (Earlhams and Eaton) that are popular for 2nd / 3rd yr (and beyond) student houses. Then a big fall back in the, likely more town than gown 25-29s in those areas.

Beyond the track suit dress code I have next to no knowledge of the ins and outs of Loughborough.

and for the majority take up rates pretty dire in both groups
This may be an issue of unrealistic expectations; a few of those "dire" areas exceed overall vaccination rates for France, Germany and USA just for a young age band. All of them even just for the young age bands would be in the top 10 countries globally for vaccination.

@QueenStromba

Does anyone know how the hospitalisation numbers are calculated? Do they include patients with a clinical diagnosis of covid and a negative test? If so, is that data available anywhere?

One explanation for the drops could be a new variant that's been seeded around the country from Wembley/Wimbledon/festivals that gives a false negative on some PCR tests (we've seen this already in some variants such as alpha where the S gene fails to amplify).

Other than the S gene, the genes that are targeted are pretty stable as mutations in these genes would usually be deleterious for the virus but the ability to evade the test would be a massive advantage since a negative test releases people back into circulation.

That's a very interesting observation, I've noticed an increase in posts here on mn with people reporting positive LFTs followed by negative PCRs, myself included (multiple times over the course of being symptomatic, in my case).

I wonder if the Zoe study has any data on that?

Yes, LFT data would would also be affected. Does anyone know if there's any data for the numbers of positive LFTs with positive and negative PCRs?

I know of least 3 people positive lft neg pcr.
Also couple negative lft and postive pcr.
Is it possible given they mass produced at speed in China that some lft are dodgy batch?

Is there any studies on how obesity can affect you if you get covid.
Do the risks have sort sliding scale of risk between bit overweight and seriously obese?

Also thought for a long time the UK has fairly reactive helath service very hard go gp and get a checkup or spend any significant amount time with gps.
Because of this is it possible theres many ranging from age 12 to 50 with underlying medical conditions they are unaware if that makes them more at risk.
For some reason they don't seem class general ashma as huge risk factors just serious ashma.
Is it possible those living in cities maybe not as healthy due to air pollution.

Just puzzled by sweping message the young don't get very ill yet we see some on the news and younger age groups are being admitted to hospital.
1004 under 18s in July is not a insignificant number.

If hospital stats are more telling at the moment in terms of indicating the virus spread with LFT testing having dropped please may I ask:

Are hospital admission stats showing those who are admitted because of illness due to covid or anyone in hospital who tests positive? (virus spreading in wards)

Also if the virus is circulating particularly amongst the unvaccinated (typically younger) then how does this skew those hospital figures given they are much less likely to become severely unwell due to their youth.

Basically how clear an indicator can hospitalisations be even if figures (around testing parameters) are more consistent outside of term time.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58014779

Half a million pregnant women unvaccinated. This is a high proportion not only of the population, but also of that demographic, assuming age 25-35.

Are hospital admission stats showing those who are admitted because of illness due to covid or anyone in hospital who tests positive?

This is the stat that has been requested by PHE from NHS. From within the industry (healthcare/NHS), it is widely accepted that 50%+ infections of Covid occur IN hospital. The reluctance to provide such data would seem to be that it puts NHS is a bad light.... well yes.

www.edgehealth.co.uk/post/saved-by-the-whistle-or-the-bell

More on the football effect (Wales and Northern Ireland supported England!).

We were told yesterday in staff briefing that cases in hospital (both general admissions and also covid admissions) might have peaked (highest figure 27th, and now falling) Obvs early days and might change course but felt an optimistic briefing.
This is a large London Trust.

@BigWoollyJumpers

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58014779

Half a million pregnant women unvaccinated. This is a high proportion not only of the population, but also of that demographic, assuming age 25-35.

I make that more than 80% of pregnant women unvaccinated unless we're having a massive baby boom.

683,000 live births in the UK last year. Add on 20% to account for miscarriages and still births is 820,000 which means 615,000 pregnant at any one time so 500,000 unvaccinated would be just shy of 82%.

@BigWoollyJumpers

www.edgehealth.co.uk/post/saved-by-the-whistle-or-the-bell

More on the football effect (Wales and Northern Ireland supported England!).

Having been in a medium sized Welsh town for the Euros final I would say that they very much were not all down the pub cheering on their neighbours. The only sport advertised outside the local pub was Rugby.

But it may have been different in Cardiff/Swansea/Newport.

@BigWoollyJumpers

www.edgehealth.co.uk/post/saved-by-the-whistle-or-the-bell

More on the football effect (Wales and Northern Ireland supported England!).

Are you sure they weren't cheering on England's opposition - it has been known

@BigWoollyJumpers

Are hospital admission stats showing those who are admitted because of illness due to covid or anyone in hospital who tests positive?

This is the stat that has been requested by PHE from NHS. From within the industry (healthcare/NHS), it is widely accepted that 50%+ infections of Covid occur IN hospital. The reluctance to provide such data would seem to be that it puts NHS is a bad light.... well yes.

Tbf we don’t do backwards contact tracing at all in this country because we’ve always had far too many cases to make it feasible. I know people want the figure but it would be so unreliable that it would be completely meaningless.

The important figure for the NHS itself that affects how it works is how many people are covid positive in hospital at the moment. dicking about trying to work out how many of those people had been in hospital at least 10 days before they got their positive covid test isn’t going to help much. It it won’t paint them in a bad light either. When cases are high in the community you are going to get spread of an aerosol based virus when you’ve got people in wards together and people visiting them. You aren’t going to stop it, it’s just a reflection of cases in the community. The way to get on top of it is to get cases in the community down so people aren’t bringing it in.

Hospitalisations have always lagged by about 2 weeks and have started to stabilise in England. I think we could wait a few days before deciding it's the Breton variant. Unlikely that the LFT would catch it but not PCR, there have always been other illnesses including both RSV and Norovirus running rampant at the moment, as well as vaguely unspecified reasons for the few false positive LFTs. If we keep testing millions every week then those situations won't be uncommon.