Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Does anyone know the data or have a graph to show the testing positive rate following infection please? I’ve read that both LFTs and PCRs have a 30% chance of being positive 30 days post infection but can’t find any more specific data.

Latest update from Tim Spector
“ZOE data shows new COVID cases have stopped rising for the last week and are holding steady around the 60,000 mark. This is in stark contrast to the rapid decline in cases recorded by the government’s official confirmed cases data. The drop is much faster than we’ve ever seen in previous waves, even after full national lockdowns, leaving the accuracy of the official tally in doubt.
The ZOE app figures are calculated using symptom data and logged test results, whereas confirmed cases rely solely on test data. All the COVID surveillance surveys are showing higher rates than the confirmed cases and all differ slightly in their methodologies, and at times like these, we should be looking across all the sources to try to understand what is happening. The UK is still testing more than virtually any other country, although numbers have recently dropped, so it could be that we are now testing the wrong people. There is still a very strict and limited symptom list in place, and we’ve been calling on the government for months to expand the list to include cold-like symptoms which are currently the most common symptoms we are seeing in confirmed COVID cases. If we got into line with other countries, we could pick up cases that are currently going undetected.”

Go, Bhutan!

uk.yahoo.com/news/bhutan-fully-vaccinated-90-eligible-091204575.html

Because cold symptoms are very non specific to covid, I would be very interested to see an analysis of whether targeting this group would actually be more effective than some alternative scheme of asymptomatic testing. I’ve said that before on this thread I think and we discussed a bit.

I have been meaning to look into Zoe’s methodology change. As we know, their user base was becoming increasingly skewed towards the vaccinated which meant their old system was no longer providing representative results. However, with restrictions lifted, it isn’t only COVID that is spreading and I wonder how this has been factored in as well. How do we know a person with cold symptoms doesn’t have a rhinovirus and covid-19? We can only check for one of them. I’m sure the smart people have thought all this through but I would be interested to see the working.

If cases are holding firm at 60000 then that in itself is very interesting and fairly positive, especially with only about half of those being in the unvaxxed.

And if hospitalisations are slowing despite 60k cases a day then that is also a good sign, no?

Thanks for the link, ATieLikeRichardGere. I think it is a very plausible hypothesis that explains (i) early trends in Bolton and Blackburn, (ii) subsequent slowdown in growth of cases across whole of the UK and (iii) decline of cases in England from July 15 onwards.

ZOE is very quick to recommend a test if anyone reports symptoms - I reported a headache yesterday and have an invite to take a test this morning. I wonder if they are partly using that data so a percentage of people who reported symptoms who went onto test positive when invited by ZOE (even if non-typical covid symptoms) - and then extrapolating from that. I hope that makes sense.

We can only check for one of them

We could check for more... and where they do ones other than covid dominate (not sure how many places other than hospital for respiratory that is though) and even where the only do the covid/not covid test the not covid dominates, although we don't know for sure that there really are any symptoms.

@Nordica yes they are definitely doing that, and it’s great. But I’m just suggesting that there’s still some new challenges in the extrapolation step particularly because the wider situation is a changing picture.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-top-5-covid-symptoms

@sirfredfredgeorge indeed! I’ve read something yesterday where someone was advocating that we start testing for flu a/b too.

Positivity rates are shockingly high still in the under 30s. Positity rates for 5 -19s still rising (but maybe slowing).

Age distribution of hospitalisation data. It is not particularly helpful in terms of comparing numbers as they are for different numbers of weeks and different number of reporting trusts. However the change in the spread across ages is interesting.

So the female 20-40's disjoint from males suggesting quite a lot of pregnancy related? Do we know how much of it's with?

Not sure but I know there’s worries because many pregnant women aren’t requiring hospital admission and haven’t been vaccinated (due to concerns about the vaccine):
www.gov.uk/government/news/health-chiefs-encourage-more-pregnant-women-to-get-their-covid-19-vaccine

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]Not sure but I know there’s worries because many pregnant women aren’t requiring hospital admission and haven’t been vaccinated (due to concerns about the vaccine):
www.gov.uk/government/news/health-chiefs-encourage-more-pregnant-women-to-get-their-covid-19-vaccine[/quote]
Im in Spain currently and was watching the news and they were saying that now they’re worried about pregnant women and catching it as few have lost their babies. :(

Just over 31k cases today. Should any increase after 19th July start showing now?

@Bordois

Just over 31k cases today. Should any increase after 19th July start showing now?

I think this is what we are likely seeing with the slowdown in decreasing cases. Having said that, Every day we are lower than this time last week is a huge win.

@Bordois

Just over 31k cases today. Should any increase after 19th July start showing now?

Perhaps. Not expecting the falls we’ve seen in recent days anymore, I don’t think.

20% down week on week is good enough to bring this right under control though.

Admissions in England have plateaued. Number of people in hospital actually dropped from yesterday in England. Hope this continues into the weekend. Looking at sub 10% weekly rise if it does

Should any increase after 19th July start showing now?

Some but not all. We are not yet able to see the full impact of the weekend socialisation (nightclubs, large indoor parties, etc).

What may be interesting is to compare week on week variances between Wednesday July 21 and Wednesday July 28 based on the date of specimen (England only). People infected on Saturday are likely to test positive on Wed (following the Euro 2020 pattern). Wed July 21 will be the "clean" starting point (ex Euro). Wed July 28 will include the first impact of re-opening.

If numbers keep going down, it will be a very positive sign.

There are some local authorities that may be seeing local flares (for instance, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole). The numbers prior to the official "cut off" date are going down but if we look at the most recent figures (by date of specimen) and try and adjust for incomplete data, the trend is somewhat choppy.

Most of the earlier hotspots (in NW and NE) seem to be on the way down.

Well I attended a wedding of over 100 people, no distancing, just like normal, on Saturday. Then on Sunday I attended back to back sold out theatre performances (my daughter was in the show) again no distancing or masks.

So ample opportunities to be infected and thus far I'm not but if I'm anything to go by this last weekend was a very important turning point for contacts etc.

@wintertravel1980

There are some local authorities that may be seeing local flares (for instance, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole). The numbers prior to the official "cut off" date are going down but if we look at the most recent figures (by date of specimen) and try and adjust for incomplete data, the trend is somewhat choppy.

Most of the earlier hotspots (in NW and NE) seem to be on the way down.

484/100 currently.

I didn't realise it had been a particular issue there, that's interesting.

Here's an updated deaths versus hospitalisations with seven day lag. Hospitalisations are no longer closely following cases which adds to the argument that the drop in cases isn't entirely genuine.

twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1420049587465826311?s=20

@QueenStromba they don't seem to have taken account the cases in the at risk of hospitalisation population, it's pretty clear that the lowest risk cases started falling before the older (not surprising given the main drivers) so the proportion of cases in this wave is different.

Are cases dropping in the young or have they just stopped bothering to test en masse?